Influence of Socio-Economic, Demographic and Climate Factors on the Regional Distribution of Dengue in the United States and Mexico

Abstract

Background: Dengue is one of the important vector-borne diseases in the world today; it infects tens of millions of people each year and has been on the rise since the 1950s. In this study, we develop a set of indicators that help us examine the impact of socio-economic and demographic factors on the occurrence of dengue in regions of the United States and Mexico. Methods: We assess the relationship between dengue occurrence in humans, climate factors (temperature and minimum quarterly rainfall), socio-economic factors (such as household income, regional rates of education, housing overcrowding, life expectancy, and medical resources), and demographic factors (such as migration flows, age structure of the population, and population density). Areas at risk of dengue are first selected based on the predicted presence of at least one of the two mosquito vectors responsible for dengue’s transmission: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. In those regions where the vectors had a high probability of presence, we assess the impact of the composite socio-economic indicators (derived through factor analysis to account for collinearity), and three composite demographic indicators (also derived from factor analysis) on the regional distribution of dengue cases, controlling for climate and spatial correlation. Results: We found that an increase of one unit in one of our socio-economic indicators representing labour force with at least secondary education, better broadband access, and rooms per inhabitant, a higher proportions of active physicians is related to a drop in the occurrence of dengue, whereas the demographic indicators such as population density, age structure of the population and population growth showed no significant impact after taking climate into account. More importantly, our socio-economic indicator can also explain differences in the occurrence of dengue across Mexico, whereas simpler measures, such as regional GDP could not. Conclusions: These results suggest that the set of indicators developed is a better indicator than GDP at predicting the distribution of dengue, by capturing information that is much more tailored to poverty related conditions which aid dengue transmission. Given that data for these indicators are available at a sub-national scale for OECD countries and selected OECD non-member economies, these indices may help us better understand factors responsible for the global distribution of dengue and also, given a warming climate, may help us to better predict vulnerable populations.

Geographical heterogeneity and socio-ecological risk profiles of dengue in Jakarta, Indonesia

“…The more available health services, the better the contact with infected patients leading to diagnosis and treatment. This is accordance with findings reported by Watts et al (2020) in the Unites States and Mexico.…”

Knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) and risk factors on dengue fever among children in Brazil, Fortaleza: A cross-sectional study

“…2 Brazil, the largest country in South America, is experiencing increased dengue incidence, with over 1.5 million cases reported in 2019. 3 A complex mixture of demographic and socio-economic factors influences the distribution and transmission of dengue, 4 which include inadequate living conditions, immunologically naïve populations, global trade and population mobility, climate change, and the adaptive nature of the principal mosquito vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus . 5-8…”

“…2 Brazil, the largest country in South America, is experiencing increased dengue incidence, with over 1.5 million cases reported in 2019. 3 A complex mixture of demographic and socio-economic factors influences the distribution and transmission of dengue, 4 which include inadequate living conditions, immunologically naïve populations, global trade and population mobility, climate change, and the adaptive nature of the principal mosquito vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. [5][6][7][8] Given that dengue vaccines are not suitable nor available for all dengue-endemic countries and anti-viral medications are not available, control of the mosquito vectors and reducing humanvector contact are recognized as the primary strategies for dengue prevention.…”

“…Household adult respondents' education level of elementary school or higher was negatively associated with children's relative risk of being seropositive (RR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.49-0.87, p=0.004). The risk of seropositivity in older children (6-12 years old) was over 6 times that of younger children (2)(3)(4)(5) years old) (RR: 6.15, 95% CI: 3.51-10.76, p<0.001). Children living in households with sealed water tanks or no water storage had a lower relative risk of being seropositive (RR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.55-0.99, p=0.041).…”

A Clustering Approach for Mapping Dengue Contingency Plan

“…This is because the spread of viruses occurs from complex interactions between viruses, hosts, and vectors. These interactions are influenced by environmental and socio-economic conditions, such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, population density, sanitation, housing, education, and access to water [4], [5]. A contingency plan is needed because it links these elements together and describes additional timing and response actions to be taken when an outbreak is imminent or has started to prevent outbreaks of Dengue and control similar epidemics.…”