Influence of Groundwater Extraction Costs and Resource Depletion Limits on Simulated Global Nonrenewable Water Withdrawals Over the Twenty‐First Century

Turner, Sean; Hejazi, Mohamad; Yonkofski, Catherine; Kim, Son H.; Kyle, Page

doi:10.1029/2018ef001105

Cited by 73 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…GCAM has been used to explore future societal and environmental scenarios under different climate scenarios 23 , 24 , including land use 25 – 27 . Here we started from GCAM v4.3, but incorporated water basin level modeling of water supply and demands 28 , distinctions between renewable and nonrenewable water sources 29 , and socioeconomic scenario specific water demand responses 30 , and used it to provide LU projections at the intersection of geopolitical regions and water basins at 5-year time step 31 (Fig. 1 ).…”

Section: Background and Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

Global land use for 2015–2100 at 0.05° resolution under diverse socioeconomic and climate scenarios

et al. 2020

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Global future land use (LU) is an important input for Earth system models for projecting Earth system dynamics and is critical for many modeling studies on future global change. Here we generated a new global gridded LU dataset using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) and a land use spatial downscaling model, named Demeter, under the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Compared to existing similar datasets, the presented dataset has a higher spatial resolution (0.05° × 0.05°) and spreads under a more comprehensive set of SSP-RCP scenarios (in total 15 scenarios), and considers uncertainties from the forcing climates. We compared our dataset with the Land Use Harmonization version 2 (LUH2) dataset and found our results are in general spatially consistent with LUH2. The presented dataset will be useful for global Earth system modeling studies, especially for the analysis of the impacts of land use and land cover change and socioeconomics, as well as the characterizing the uncertainties associated with these impacts.

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Section: Background and Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

Global land use for 2015–2100 at 0.05° resolution under diverse socioeconomic and climate scenarios

et al. 2020

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“…Questions related to historical and future water resources and scarcity have been addressed by several macroscale hydrological models over the last few decades (Liang et al, 1994;Alcamo et al, 1997;Hagemann and Gates, 2001;Takata et al, 2003;Krinner et al, 2005;Bondeau et al, 2007;Hanasaki et al, 2008b;van Beek and Bierkens, 2009;. Early efforts focused on the simulation of natural water resources and the impacts of land cover and climate change on water availability (Oki et al, 1995;Nijssen et al, 2001a, b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…VIC has been used extensively in studies such as coupled regional climate model simulations (Zhu et al, 2009;Hamman et al, 2016), combined river streamflow and water temperature simulations (van Vliet et al, 2016), hydrological sensitivity to climate change research (Hamlet and Lettenmaier, 1999;Nijssen et al, 2001a;Chegwidden et al, 2019), global streamflow simulations (Nijssen et al, 2001b), flow regulation and redistribution research (Voisin et al, 2018;Zhou et al, 2018), and real-time drought forecasting (Wood and Lettenmaier, 2006;Mo, 2008). Several studies have also used VIC to simulate the anthropogenic impacts of irrigation and dam operation on water resources (Haddeland et al, 2006a, b;Zhou et al, 2015Zhou et al, , 2016) based on the model setup of Haddeland et al (2006b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating human impacts on global water resources using VIC-5

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Abstract. Questions related to historical and future water resources and scarcity have been addressed by several macroscale hydrological models. One of these models is the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. However, further model developments were needed to holistically assess anthropogenic impacts on global water resources using VIC. Our study developed VIC-WUR, which extends the VIC model using (1) integrated routing, (2) surface and groundwater use for various sectors (irrigation, domestic, industrial, energy, and livestock), (3) environmental flow requirements for both surface and groundwater systems, and (4) dam operation. Global gridded datasets on sectoral demands were developed separately and used as an input for the VIC-WUR model. Simulated national water withdrawals were in line with reported Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) national annual withdrawals (adjusted R2 > 0.8), both per sector and per source. However, trends in time for domestic and industrial water withdrawal were mixed compared with previous studies. Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) monthly terrestrial water storage anomalies were well represented (global mean root-mean-squared error, RMSE, values of 1.9 and 3.5 mm for annual and interannual anomalies respectively), whereas groundwater depletion trends were overestimated. The implemented anthropogenic impact modules increased simulated streamflow performance for 370 of the 462 anthropogenically impacted Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) monitoring stations, mostly due to the effects of reservoir operation. An assessment of environmental flow requirements indicates that global water withdrawals have to be severely limited (by 39 %) to protect aquatic ecosystems, especially with respect to groundwater withdrawals. VIC-WUR has potential for studying the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic developments on current and future water resources and sector-specific water scarcity. The additions presented here make the VIC model more suited for fully integrated worldwide water resource assessments.

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“…GCAM adjusts prices of goods and services within each model time step to equilibrate the supply and demand of goods and services at each time step, and thus simultaneously clears markets across sectors. This study accounts for a limited supply of water by employing cost resource curves across all 235 basins that follow a logit formulation to determine the share of each water source (renewable, nonrenewable, and desalinated water) needed to meet the water demands within all basins 47,48 . As depletion of various water sources increases, the extraction price increases, which leads to compounding price increases in the goods and services that require higher-priced water sources.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future changes in the trading of virtual water

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Water stressed regions rely heavily on the import of water-intensive goods to offset insufficient food production driven by socioeconomic and environmental factors. The water embedded in these traded commodities, virtual water, has received increasing interest in the scientific community. However, comprehensive future projections of virtual water trading remain absent. Here we show, for the first time, changes over the 21 st century in the amount of various water types required to meet international agricultural demands. Accounting for evolution in socioeconomic and climatic conditions, we estimate future interregional virtual water trading and find trading of renewable water sources may triple by 2100 while nonrenewable groundwater trading may at least double. Basins in North America, and the La Plata and Nile Rivers are found to contribute extensively to virtual water exports, while much of Africa, India, and the Middle East relies heavily on virtual water imports by the end of the century.

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Influence of Groundwater Extraction Costs and Resource Depletion Limits on Simulated Global Nonrenewable Water Withdrawals Over the Twenty‐First Century

Cited by 73 publications

References 63 publications

Global land use for 2015–2100 at 0.05° resolution under diverse socioeconomic and climate scenarios

Global land use for 2015–2100 at 0.05° resolution under diverse socioeconomic and climate scenarios

Simulating human impacts on global water resources using VIC-5

Future changes in the trading of virtual water

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