Influence of ground-motion correlation on probabilistic assessments of seismic hazard and loss: sensitivity analysis

Abstract

Recent studies have shown that the proper treatment of ground-motion variability and, particularly, the correlation of ground motion are essential for the estimation of the seismic hazard, damage and loss for distributed portfolios. In this work we compared the effects of variations in the between-earthquake correlation and in the site-to-site correlation on probabilistic estimations of seismic damage and loss for the extended objects (hypothetical portfolio) and critical elements (e.g. bridges) of a network. Taiwan Island has been chosen as a test case for this study because of relatively high seismicity and previous experience in earthquake hazard modelling. The hazard and loss estimations were performed using Monte Carlo approach on the basis of stochastic catalogues and random ground-motion fields. We showed that the influence of correlation on parameters of seismic hazard, characteristics of loss distribution and the probability of damage depend, on one hand, on level of hazard and probability level of interest (return period) and, on the other hand, the relative influence of each type of correlation is not equal.

Preliminary probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia based on combined areal source model: Monte Carlo approach and sensitivity analyses

“…In recent decades, Monte Carlo simulation is frequently used in PSHA as an alternative to conventional numerical integration (socalled Cornell-McGuire PSHA) [17,19,38,54,55,71,84]. The calculation steps are straightforward and intuitive: simulating earthquake location, generating earthquake magnitude and fault dimensions, and then estimating ground motion parameters for given earthquake characteristics.…”

“…The software was developed by V. Sokolov and it has been applied in research related to seismic hazard and loss estimations including analysis of methodological problems in multiple-site hazard and loss assessment [71][72][73].…”

“…The scheme allows certain number of earthquake epicenters, which are initially located near the border of a zone, to be moved symmetrically in the neighboring zone [71]. The relative percentage of displaced epicenters changes from 0% at a threshold distance of several tens of kilometers from the border to 50% at the border.…”

“…The analysis is very important for assessment of damage, loss and seismic risk for spatially distributed structures (lifelines, critical elements of network, important objects, urban areas, etc.) [24,35,42,43,58,[71][72][73]. We considered recently developed models of seismic source zones for the Arabian Peninsula and surrounding regions, and modern ground-motion prediction equations.…”

Spatial correlation of ground motions in estimating seismic hazards to civil infrastructure

“…Specifi c (scenario) earthquakes were considered by Lee et al (2004), Lee and Kiremidjian (2007), Molas et al (2006), Goda andAtkinson (2009), Crowley et al (2008a,b), and Sokolov and Wenzel (2011a). Multiple earthquakes and loss probability curves were analyzed by Wesson and Perkins (2001), McVerry et al (2004), Bommer and Crowley (2006), Park et al (2007), Goda andHong (2008b, 2009), and Sokolov and Wenzel (2011b). Seismic loss estimation was performed using the techniques based on different ground-motion parameters, namely: modifi ed Mercalli intensities (McVerry et al, 2004;Molas et al, 2006), peak ground acceleration (Wesson and Perkins, 2001;Sokolov and Wenzel, 2011a,b), and spectral acceleration or spectral displacement (Lee et al, 2004;Crowley and Bommer, 2006;Lee and Kiremidjian, 2007;Park et al, 2007;Crowley et al, 2008a;Goda and Hong, 2008b), and using various descriptions of loss, i.e, the mean damage ratio (Wesson and Perkins, 2001;Lee et al, 2004;Crowley and Bommer, 2006;Lee and Kiremidjian, 2007;Crowley et al, 2008a;Goda and Atkinson, 2009;Sokolov and Wenzel, 2011b) and monetary loss (McVerry et al, 2004;Park et al, 2007;Goda andHong, 2008b, 2009;Sokolov and Wenzel, 2011a).…”