Influence of climatic indices (AMO, PDO, and ENSO) and temperature on rainfall in the Northeast Region of India

Singh, Ashok K.; Thakur, Samir; Adhikary, Nirab C.

doi:10.1007/s42452-020-03527-y

Cited by 16 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 56 publications

(82 reference statements)

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“…However, Figure 4 shows a low AMO signal in terms of temperature behavior. This is detected in other regions [74]; there are studies [75,76] which report that during the AMO warm phase, the occurrence of droughts is associated with higher temperatures.…”

Section: Temperaturesmentioning

confidence: 71%

Regional Climate Change in Southeast Mexico-Yucatan Peninsula, Central America and the Caribbean

et al. 2021

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This study analyzes the mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures and precipitation trends in southeast Mexico-Yucatan Peninsula, Central America and the Caribbean regions. The Climate Research Unit (CRU) TS 4.01, with a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°, was the database used in this research. The trends of the four selected climate variables cover the period from 1960 to 2016. The results obtained show a clear and consistent warming trend, at a rate of about 0.01 °C/year for the entire study region. These results are consistent with some previous studies and the IPCC reports. While the trends of precipitation anomalies are slightly positive (~0.1 mm/year) for southeast Mexico-Yucatan Peninsula and almost the entire Caribbean, for Central America (CA) the trends are negative. The study also presents the correlation between temperatures and precipitation versus El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) drivers, indicating global warming and frequency signals from the climate drivers. In terms of the near future (2015–2039), three Representative Concentration Pathways (RPC) show the same trend of temperature increase as the historical record. The RCP 6.0 has trends similar to the historical records for CA and southeast Mexico-Yucatan Peninsula, while the Caribbean corresponds to RCP 4.5. In terms of the far-future (2075–2099), RCP 6.0 is more ad-hoc for southeastern Mexico-Yucatan Peninsula, and RCP 8.5 corresponds to Central America. These results could help to focus actions and measures against the impacts of climate change in the entire study region.

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Section: Temperaturesmentioning

confidence: 71%

Regional Climate Change in Southeast Mexico-Yucatan Peninsula, Central America and the Caribbean

et al. 2021

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“…Keeping this caveat in mind, we cautiously interpret the multi-proxy record as an increase in seasonality with stronger ISM seasons and longer or drier winters between 3.97 and 3.4 ka BP, followed by decreased seasonality as the ISM weakens and winter moisture picks up again from 3.4 to 3.1 ka BP. Since Dharamjali Cave sits in a transition zone influenced by winter westerlies and the ISM, it is likely that multidecadal shifts in Northern Hemisphere insolation, the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation (AMO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), as well as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) would play a role in modulating the strength of the dry and wet season rainfall systems and total annual rainfall over Dharamjali Cave, as it does in northeast India 63 . Along with negative NAO conditions, atmospheric blocking patterns over Europe can translate to drier westerlies in the Mediterranean and western Asia, which is one mechanism proposed for the 4.2 ka event 1,64,65 .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recurring summer and winter droughts from 4.2-3.97 thousand years ago in north India

Giesche

Hodell

Petrie

et al. 2023

Commun Earth Environ

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The 4.2-kiloyear event has been described as a global megadrought that transformed multiple Bronze Age complex societies, including the Indus Civilization, located in a sensitive transition zone with a bimodal (summer and winter) rainfall regime. Here we reconstruct changes in summer and winter rainfall from trace elements and oxygen, carbon, and calcium isotopes of a speleothem from Dharamjali Cave in the Himalaya spanning 4.2–3.1 thousand years ago. We find a 230-year period of increased summer and winter drought frequency between 4.2 and 3.97 thousand years ago, with multi-decadal aridity events centered on 4.19, 4.11, and 4.02 thousand years ago. The sub-annually resolved record puts seasonal variability on a human decision-making timescale, and shows that repeated intensely dry periods spanned multiple generations. The record highlights the deficits in winter and summer rainfall during the urban phase of the Indus Civilization, which prompted adaptation through flexible, self-reliant, and drought-resistant agricultural strategies.

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“…This decreasing rainfall is the primary cause of changing the entire hydrological cycle in the region (Dash et al ., 2007; Choudhury et al ., 2019), thereby impacting the regional climate indices. Some studies state that these variabilities might be linked to the impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) through the Indian summer monsoon over the basin (Immerzeel, 2008; Khandu et al ., 2017; Choudhury et al ., 2019; Singh et al ., 2020). It is also found that there is a decreasing trend of rainfall in the monsoon season, with an increasing trend during the pre‐ and post‐monsoon periods over India (Dash et al ., 2007; Deka et al ., 2013; Das et al ., 2015; Mukherjee et al ., 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The changing characteristics of rainfall over the Brahmaputra Basin during 1998–2018

Gogoi

Vinoj

Landu

et al. 2023

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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The changes to the hydrological cycle as a consequence of climate change significantly affect the water security of countries worldwide. The Brahmaputra Basin (BB), a biodiversity hotspot, is among the world's wettest regions and is vulnerable to climate change. Using ground and satellite-based datasets from multiple sources and a percentile-based analysis from 1998 to 2018, it is found that an asymmetric trend exists in extreme rainfall over the hills and the adjacent plains of the basin. The hills experience a decline in rainfall, whereas, over the plains, an increase is observed on similar rainfall days. During 1998-2018, mean accumulated rainfall over the whole basin declined by as much as ∼60% during the October to December (OND) period. Similarly, a decline of ∼20% is observed for June to September (JJAS). The most significant reduction in mean rainfall was mainly over the wettest regions of the basin, such as Cherrapunji/Mawsynram and is concentrated in the highest percentile (extreme events) of rainfall distribution. Such an overall decline in total rainfall coupled with altitudinal asymmetry in percentile distributions of rainfall may contribute towards flood hazards with changing lead time for warning, posing severe socio-economic challenges.

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Influence of climatic indices (AMO, PDO, and ENSO) and temperature on rainfall in the Northeast Region of India

Cited by 16 publications

References 56 publications

Regional Climate Change in Southeast Mexico-Yucatan Peninsula, Central America and the Caribbean

Regional Climate Change in Southeast Mexico-Yucatan Peninsula, Central America and the Caribbean

Recurring summer and winter droughts from 4.2-3.97 thousand years ago in north India

The changing characteristics of rainfall over the Brahmaputra Basin during 1998–2018

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