Influence of Climate Change on Future Hurricane Wind Hazards along the US Eastern Coast and the Gulf of Mexico

Liu, Fangqian; Pang, Weichiang

doi:10.1061/9780784412626.051

Cited by 12 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 7 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In this paper two methods are considered for estimating wind and wave conditions at various MRPs, one based on decades of continuous measurements of the sea state and wind speeds provided by the National Data Buoy Center of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) [18] and the second based on a synthetic stochastic catalog of hurricanes [19]. The first is referred to herein as the NOAA-based environmental conditions and the second as the hurricane-based environmental conditions.…”

Section: P[dmmentioning

confidence: 99%

Toward performance-based evaluation for offshore wind turbine jacket support structures

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper introduces a framework for the assessment of damage of offshore wind turbines (OWTs) supported by jackets under extreme environmental loadings. Performance levels/damage states, ranging from operational/undamaged to near collapse/severely damaged, are defined based on static pushover analyses. An example performance assessment is presented for an OWT supported by a jacket based on environmental conditions for a site off Massachusetts along U.S. Atlantic coast. The environmental conditions are characterized based on two methods for estimating wind and wave conditions, one on extrapolation of NOAA buoy measurements and one on a stochastic hurricane catalog, and two models for extreme wave height, one on the crest height and one on the zero-up-crossing height. Using probabilistic models for demands and capacities, two curves of fragility, one estimating the initiation of yielding and the other estimating the onset of collapse, are developed to distinguish between the three damage states. The curves are applied to four combinations of two environmental hazard models and two extreme wave height models, and significant differences are found in the probability of damage among the four combinations of models. The findings have potential implications for the evaluation of the overall risk profile and associated performance for offshore wind farms.

show abstract

Section: P[dmmentioning

confidence: 99%

Toward performance-based evaluation for offshore wind turbine jacket support structures

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Since the historical record of hurricanes at the selected site is short (~150 years), the variability of hurricane conditions (i.e., variability in hurricane path, fetch, size and intensity) is considered through a stochastic catalog that provides tens of thousands of realizations of one year of potential hurricane activity. The stochastic catalog developed at Clemson University for the Atlantic basin by Liu and Pang based on the methodology proposed by Vickery is used. In this catalog, the hurricane events are parameterized every six hours in terms of eye position latitude and longitude, central pressure, radius to maximum winds, heading direction, forward translation speed and the Holland B parameter (see Section 2.3 and equation for more details).…”

Section: Numerical Examplementioning

confidence: 99%

“…A total of 1000 synthetic hurricane tracks selected from a 100,000 year stochastic catalog . The site of NOAA Buoy #44008 is indicated with a black star.…”

Section: Numerical Examplementioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of wind and wave directionality on the structural performance of non‐operational offshore wind turbines supported by jackets during hurricanes

et al. 2016

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Risk of hurricane damage is an important factor in the development of the offshore wind energy industry in the United States. Hurricane loads on an offshore wind turbine (OWT), namely wind and wave loads, not only exert large structural demands, but also have temporally changing characteristics, especially with respect to their directions. Waves are less susceptible to rapid changes, whereas wind can change its properties over shorter time scales. Misalignment of local winds and ocean waves occurs regularly during a hurricane. The strength capacity of non-axisymmetric structures such as jackets is sensitive to loading direction and misalignment relative to structural orientation. As an example, this work examines the effect of these issues on the extreme loads and structural response of a non-operational OWT during hurricane conditions. The considered OWT is a 5 MW turbine, supported by a jacket structure and located off the Massachusetts coast. A set of 1000 synthetic hurricane events, selected from a catalog simulating 100,000 years of hurricane activity, is used to represent hurricane conditions, and the corresponding wind speeds, wave heights and directions are estimated using empirical, parametric models for each hurricane. The impact of wind and wave directions and structural orientation are quantified through a series of nonlinear static analyses under various assumptions for combining the directions of wind and wave and structural orientation for the considered example structure.

show abstract

“…These models are essentially driven by the emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). There have been efforts in the engineering community to conveniently and efficiently consider the influence of the warming climate on hurricane activities by integrating the projected environmental conditions (resulting from the climate models) into the hurricane risk assessment framework (e.g., Liu and Pang, 2013;Mudd et al, 2014Mudd et al, , 2016Rosowsky et al, 2016;Cui and Caracoglia, 2016;Rosowsky, 2018;Marsooli et al, 2019), generally involving a hurricane track model to generate the synthesized storms, a gradient wind model, and an approach to obtain the surface wind and rain fields. While there are several important environmental factors contributing to hurricane dynamics and thermodynamics (e.g., sea surface temperature (SST), wind shear, convective instability, temperature at the top of atmospheric boundary layer, and outflow temperature), SST is usually the only consideration in these engineering applications.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hurricane Hazard Assessment Along the United States Northeastern Coast: Surface Wind and Rain Fields Under Changing Climate

Snaiki

2020

Front. Built Environ.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Surface wind and rain fields are two significant elements of hurricane-induced hazards in coastal areas. Mitigation of losses due to hurricane wind and rain hazards has become an increasing urgent and challenging issue in light of changing climate and continued escalation of coastal population density, prompting the need for a more advanced risk analysis methodology to take global warming effects into consideration. In this study, the assessment of hurricane surface wind and rain hazards under changing climate is achieved by performing three simulation components, namely an enhanced hurricane track model to generate the synthesized storms (including a physics-based intensity model integrating sea surface temperature (SST), wind shear, and convective instability contributions), a newly developed thermal wind balance-based model to simulate the gradient wind profiles (explicitly considering environmental conditions of SST, temperature at the top of atmospheric boundary layer, and outflow temperature), and a height-resolving boundary-layer model to obtain the surface wind and rain fields (reducing inherent uncertainties associated with conventionally used gradient-tosurface wind speed conversion factors). A total of 10,000 years of hurricane events are generated for both observed (historical) and projected climate conditions, and a systematical comparison between these two scenarios is investigated. The simulation and comparison results highlight the important effects of a global warming scenario on hurricane surface wind and rain fields, and hence on critical civil infrastructure in hurricane-prone areas.

show abstract

Influence of Climate Change on Future Hurricane Wind Hazards along the US Eastern Coast and the Gulf of Mexico

Cited by 12 publications

References 7 publications

Toward performance-based evaluation for offshore wind turbine jacket support structures

Toward performance-based evaluation for offshore wind turbine jacket support structures

Effect of wind and wave directionality on the structural performance of non‐operational offshore wind turbines supported by jackets during hurricanes

Hurricane Hazard Assessment Along the United States Northeastern Coast: Surface Wind and Rain Fields Under Changing Climate

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About