Influence of Climate Change on Food Crop Yield in Benin Republic

Abstract

World climate is projected to be more harmful and unforeseeable. A threefold combination of temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration leads to climate change with a negative effect on staple food crop production. To understand the sensitivity of staple food crop yield to future change in climate, this paper uses the feasible generalized least square (FGLS) and heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation (HAC) consistent standard error techniques function to quantify the effects of climate variables on the mean and variance of crop yields. Data from FAOSTAT website and national institutions such as temperature, precipitation and crop areas cultivated for period 1961-2015 for Benin country are used. Climate variables are computed according to each crop growing season. The results showed that climate change could significantly influence the mean crop yields and could significantly affect the crop yield variability. The contribution of climate variables to crop yield varies across staple crop yields and they were predicted to decrease about 2025. In order to ensure food availability in the context of climate change, support to agricultural sector and especially to staple food crops production should be focused on seeds improvement by generating, developing and extending drought and flood-tolerant varieties. The results also implicate the promoting of irrigated agriculture.

Economy-Wide Effects of Climate Change in Benin: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

“…In previous research papers, evidence of climate change was given [7] and induced food crop yield losses were demonstrated [8] in Benin. It was predicted that temperature increases will negatively affect agricultural production [9].…”

“…In order to estimate the climate change-induced crop yield losses in the CGE model, the feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) method were used building on the results of Hounnou et al [8],. Temperature and precipitation changes, as indicated by the climate projections from the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios A1B and B1.…”

“…Hence, prices for agricultural and food products rise, affecting household welfare. Economies relying on rainfed agricultural systems are the most negatively affected due to rises in temperature, erratic precipitation patterns, and increases in potential evapotranspiration [6][7][8]. While at global level, the effects and mechanisms are known, more studies are needed at the country level, incorporating local specificities in analyses in order to inform policy.…”

“…The results show that without adaptive strategies to cope with climate change, economic growth and household welfare will decline even further by 2035 and 2045. Subsequently, the paper suggests that adaptation strategies are needed not only at the national level to overcome the projected negative effects on macroeconomic indicators, but also at household level to enhance the adaptative capacity of households, especially the poor households living in rural areas.In Benin, previous studies showed that yields of major food crops are likely to decline with implications for food security, farm incomes, and household welfare [8,9]. The high potential impact of climate change in Benin is due to the size of the agricultural sector in the economy.…”

“…In Benin, previous studies showed that yields of major food crops are likely to decline with implications for food security, farm incomes, and household welfare [8,9]. The high potential impact of climate change in Benin is due to the size of the agricultural sector in the economy.…”