Influence of Ambiguity on Success of Public Infrastructural Megaprojects in Kenya

Abstract

The objective of this study was to investigate the influence of ambiguity on success of public infrastructural megaprojects in Kenya. The need for this study arose from the thesis that ambiguity is a key cause of complexity that results in infrastructural megaprojects being delivered over budget, behind schedule, with benefit shortfalls, over and over again. The study was designed as multiple-method research based on virtual constructionist ontology recognizing that complexity is the mid-point between order and disorder. A cross-sectional census survey of completed public infrastructural megaprojects was conducted using two interlinked questionnaires. Quantitative data was analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics while qualitative data was analyzed using expert judgment, scenario mapping and retrospective sense-making. The projects surveyed majorly utilized fixed price contracts with the outcome of increased delivery within budget than within schedule. The results showed that ambiguity had significant negative influence on process and overall success of public infrastructural megaprojects but had no significant relationship with product and organizational success. Projects in which the client assumed responsibility for cost and schedule risk had higher chances of meeting both cost and schedule objectives. In order to manage the negative effects of ambiguity, we recommend a new perspective to contract design of public infrastructural megaprojects based on complexity science, blending both outcome and behavior-based contracts. Such contracts should ensure that, in the face of ambiguity, the contractors are able to act in the best interest of their clients and that the clients have access to quality Project Management Information Systems.

Megaproject complexity attributes and competences: lessons from IT and construction projects

“…Some of the most commonly cited socio-economic benefits of mega infrastructure investments include improved global connectivity, access to natural resources, competitive markets, and better job opportunities [4]. This is supported by studies in both the developing and the developed countries [5][6][7]. For instance, intensive capital investments in megaprojects in China have been associated with high rates of economic growth and, consequently, an upliftment of close to half a billion people above the poverty line between 1980 and 2000 [8].…”

“…Some important events which have been credited for transforming the megaproject landscape have been found to include the Second World War, the Cold War and the Space Race, which ushered megaprojects such as the Manhattan Project (1939 to 1946), and the Apollo Program (1961 to 1972), whose budgets have been estimated to be worth several billions and trillions of dollars [20]. Based on the scientific interpretation of the term "mega", these important events-borne projects should ideally be termed "gigaprojects" and "teraprojects" based on the sizes of their budgets [5]. However, the terms "gigaproject" and "teraproject" have not been found as being used in the existing literature [19].…”

“…Another related debate has focused on the key factors behind the underperformance of megaprojects [5,32]. Among the many factors that have been put forward in the literature, project size and complexity levels have emerged as two of the most common and impactful factors [33][34][35][36][37].…”

“…In the African context, other megaproject investments in the information and communication technology (ICT) sector have been construed in terms of innovation hubs such as the Kigali Innovation City (Rwanda) [38], Konza Technology City (Kenya) [5,48], Yabacon Valley (Nigeria) [49], and the proposed Sheba Valley (Ethiopia) [50]. These innovation hub megaprojects have been planned to serve purposes including acting as research centres and information hubs.…”

“…These innovation hub megaprojects have been planned to serve purposes including acting as research centres and information hubs. Although some of these megaprojects such as the Konza Technology City have encountered major implementation challenges and slow progress [5], others such as the Kigali Innovation City have progressed well [38].…”