Inflow shortages in deregulated power markets — Reasons for concern?

Bye, Torstein; Bruvoll, Annegrete; Aune, Finn Roar

doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2007.11.009

Cited by 8 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Moreover, the abundant and flexible hydropower capacity in the Nordic countries decreases electricity price volatility, as hydropower is well suited for balancing the market. Therefore, a drought would most likely increase consumer electricity prices and result in economic losses for industry and households [60]. Estimations of the value of the lost load in the case of generation inadequacy range between 5000-20,000 euros per MWh, i.e., much higher than the price cap in the wholesale market [61].…”

Section: Periodmentioning

confidence: 99%

Severe Drought in Finland: Modeling Effects on Water Resources and Assessing Climate Change Impacts

et al. 2019

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Severe droughts cause substantial damage to different socio-economic sectors, and even Finland, which has abundant water resources, is not immune to their impacts. To assess the implications of a severe drought in Finland, we carried out a national scale drought impact analysis. Firstly, we simulated water levels and discharges during the severe drought of 1939–1942 (the reference drought) in present-day Finland with a hydrological model. Secondly, we estimated how climate change would alter droughts. Thirdly, we assessed the impact of drought on key water use sectors, with a focus on hydropower and water supply. The results indicate that the long-lasting reference drought caused the discharges to decrease at most by 80% compared to the average annual minimum discharges. The water levels generally fell to the lowest levels in the largest lakes in Central and South-Eastern Finland. Climate change scenarios project on average a small decrease in the lowest water levels during droughts. Severe drought would have a significant impact on water-related sectors, reducing water supply and hydropower production. In this way drought is a risk multiplier for the water–energy–food security nexus. We suggest that the resilience to droughts could be improved with region-specific drought management plans and by including droughts in existing regional preparedness exercises.

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Section: Periodmentioning

confidence: 99%

Severe Drought in Finland: Modeling Effects on Water Resources and Assessing Climate Change Impacts

et al. 2019

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“…Chile was one of the first countries deregulating its electricity market and hydro-power was a dominant source of energy during the 90´s (Pollitt (2004)). Notice that the role of hydro-power has changed during the deregulation period in that demand growth has started outpacing reserve capacity triggering questions about supply security (e.g., Bye, Bruvoll and Roar Aune (2008)).…”

Section: Empirical Illustrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Static efficiency decompositions and capacity utilization: integrating economic and technical capacity notions

et al. 2012

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HAL is a multidisciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of scientific research documents, whether they are published or not. The documents may come from teaching and research institutions in France or abroad, or from public or private research centers. L'archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d'enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés.

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“…Like wind power, hydropower is also susceptible to climatic variability in the form of variations in reservoir inflows [ 16 ]. In extreme or extended cases, low inflows can lead to decreased energy supply, increased prices, or energy insecurity [ 16 , 17 ]. Similarly, high inflow periods can result in low or even negative prices, exceeding environmental flow limitations, spillage, and curtailment of other energy sources [ 18 , 19 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impacts of Wind Speed Trends and 30-Year Variability in Relation to Hydroelectric Reservoir Inflows on Wind Power in the Pacific Northwest

et al. 2015

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In hydroelectric dominated systems, the value and benefits of energy are higher during extended dry periods and lower during extended or extreme wet periods. By accounting for regional and temporal differences in the relationship between wind speed and reservoir inflow behavior during wind farm site selection, the benefits of energy diversification can be maximized. The goal of this work was to help maximize the value of wind power by quantifying the long-term (30-year) relationships between wind speed and streamflow behavior, using British Columbia (BC) and the Pacific Northwest (PNW) as a case study. Clean energy and self-sufficiency policies in British BC make the benefits of increased generation during low streamflow periods particularly large. Wind density (WD) estimates from a height of 10m (North American Regional Reanalysis, NARR) were correlated with cumulative usable inflows (CUI) for BC (collected from BC Hydro) for 1979–2010. The strongest WD-CUI correlations were found along the US coast (r ~0.55), whereas generally weaker correlations were found in northern regions, with negative correlations (r ~ -0.25) along BC’s North Coast. Furthermore, during the lowest inflow years, WD anomalies increased by up to 40% above average values for the North Coast. Seasonally, high flows during the spring freshet were coincident with widespread negative WD anomalies, with a similar but opposite pattern for low inflow winter months. These poorly or negatively correlated sites could have a moderating influence on climate related variability in provincial electricity supply, by producing greater than average generation in low inflow years and reduced generation in wet years. Wind speed and WD trends were also analyzed for all NARR grid locations, which showed statistically significant positive trends for most of the PNW and the largest increases along the Pacific Coast.

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Inflow shortages in deregulated power markets — Reasons for concern?

Cited by 8 publications

References 9 publications

Severe Drought in Finland: Modeling Effects on Water Resources and Assessing Climate Change Impacts

Severe Drought in Finland: Modeling Effects on Water Resources and Assessing Climate Change Impacts

Static efficiency decompositions and capacity utilization: integrating economic and technical capacity notions

The Impacts of Wind Speed Trends and 30-Year Variability in Relation to Hydroelectric Reservoir Inflows on Wind Power in the Pacific Northwest

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