Inflation expectations in euro area Phillips curves

Álvarez, Luis J.; Correa‐López, Mónica

doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109449

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 27 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Many recent studies conducted for industrialized economies, such as the US and the UK, reveal that the Phillips curve has weakened and become flatter since policymakers have been able to successfully anchor and stabilize inflation expectations at "closeto-zero" levels, which, in turn, has deteriorated the Central Banks ability to predict or influence inflation through market pressures resulting in the socalled "periods of missing (dis)inflation" (Coibion & Gorodnichenko, 2015;Eser et al, 2020;Alexius et al, 2020;Alvarez and Correa-Lopez, 2020;Conti, 2021). Kabundi et al (2019) note that the whilst the Phillips curve may have flattened in industrialized economies where expectations have become better anchored relatively early in the IT regime, the pattern in emerging countries, such as South Africa, is different and the curve can be still used as a policy guide for Central Banks in these nations.…”

Section: Introduction Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pursuing the Phillips Curve in an African Monarchy: A Swazi Case Study

Phiri¹

2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The purpose of this study is to examine whether we can identify a Phillips curve fit for the Kingdom of Eswatini as a low middle income Sub-Saharan Africa monarchy using data collected between 1991 and 2016. In our approach we rely on the recently introduced nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag (N-ARDL) model to a variety of Phillips curve specifications. For robustness sake, we further employ three filters (one-sided HP, two-sided HP, and Corbae-Oularis filters) to extract the gap variables necessary for empirical analysis. Our findings point to a linear, short-run traditional Phillips curve whereas we find strong support for concave shaped unemployment-gap and output–gap based Phillips curve specifications. Given the specific form of concavity discovered in the Phillips curves, the low inflation rate experienced over the last couple of decades can be attributed to a worsening labour and goods markets. Moreover, our evidence further cautions Swazi policymakers of ‘overheating’ of the economy during economic booms in which stabilization tools are required to implemented in such instances.

show abstract

Section: Introduction Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pursuing the Phillips Curve in an African Monarchy: A Swazi Case Study

Phiri¹

2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Of course, analysis of short-term changes in the equality of supply and demand with the participation of intermediaries will not help to answer questions of understanding and forecasting open innovation indicators. But the concepts of the wave nature of development, the cyclicity of certain patterns of change and the empirical interconnectedness of the behavior of indicators will be involved in the article as the concept of "communication models" [22][23][24][25].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Non-Classical Approach to Identifying Groups of Countries Based on Open Innovation Indicators

Baboshkin

Yegina

Zemskova

et al. 2021

Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This article aims to highlight various methods and approaches to grouping countries, according to the behavior of their open innovation indicators. GDP, inflation and unemployment are the most important indicators of the economic and social policies of states, allowing them to be evaluated and models built. To find the relationships between open innovation indicators the paper uses marginal analysis and feature reduction, as well as machine learning methods (shift to the mean, agglomerative clustering and random forest methods). The results showed that, after isolating all groups, the importance of the signs was established and the patterns of behavior of indicators for each group were compared and open innovation dynamics was analyzed. The conclusions showed that it is obvious that increasing the number of variables in the model and using more extensive indicators can greatly increase the accuracy, in contrast to the generally accepted simple classifications. This approach makes it possible to more accurately find the connections between sectors of the economy or between state economies in general. An accompanying result of the study was the clarification of the equality of open innovation indicators for the analysis of their interrelationships between countries.

show abstract

Evaluation of inflation and unemployment and plotting the Philips curve of the Czech Republic

2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Phillips curve was supposed to mean an expansion of the doctrine based on the original regulatory ideas of J. M. Keynes. At the time of its inception (1950s), it gave governments theoretical hope, coming from the possibility of choosing a negative correlation between the price level (P) and the product (Y). Her early denial (at least in the short term) by Milton Friedman, on the other hand, has not changed anything about other applications that are still relevant until present time. In the fact, advantage of Phillips curve is her ability based on broad-spectrum use for any type of national economy. The aim of this work is to determine the shape of the Phillips curve for the Czech Republic in the period from 2000 to the present and to compare its shape with the shape of the original Phillips curve. The method of regression analysis is used here, comparison and prediction are performed using time series. In this paper, we find out what the short-term Phillips curve looks like for the Czech Republic, that it does not coincide with the original Phillips curve, and that in the future we can count on a growing correlation between inflation and unemployment.

show abstract

Inflation expectations in euro area Phillips curves

Abstract: Clarida et al. (1999) and Woodford (2003). 2 Adam and Padula (2011) illustrate the validity of Phillips curves when direct, survey-based measures of expectations are used, provided that economic agents satisfy the law of iterated expectations by, for 2

Cited by 5 publications

References 27 publications

Pursuing the Phillips Curve in an African Monarchy: A Swazi Case Study

Pursuing the Phillips Curve in an African Monarchy: A Swazi Case Study

Non-Classical Approach to Identifying Groups of Countries Based on Open Innovation Indicators

Evaluation of inflation and unemployment and plotting the Philips curve of the Czech Republic

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About