2018
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-04725-4
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Inferring collective dynamical states from widely unobserved systems

Abstract: When assessing spatially extended complex systems, one can rarely sample the states of all components. We show that this spatial subsampling typically leads to severe underestimation of the risk of instability in systems with propagating events. We derive a subsampling-invariant estimator, and demonstrate that it correctly infers the infectiousness of various diseases under subsampling, making it particularly useful in countries with unreliable case reports. In neuroscience, recordings are strongly limited by … Show more

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Cited by 120 publications
(377 citation statements)
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“…This typically involves stochastic processes, such as (probabilistic) cellular automata [8][9][10], contact processes [10,11], or interacting Hawkes processes [12]. In particular, infectious diseases have been modeled by so-called susceptible-infectious models or generalizations thereof [13], whereas spikepropagation in neural networks has been modeled by socalled branching networks [14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22], Hawkes processes [23][24][25], or probabilistic integrate-and-fire networks [26,27]. These models can be either constructed as independentinteraction models (static interactions), or as threshold models with interactions depending on the states of the interacting partners [28].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This typically involves stochastic processes, such as (probabilistic) cellular automata [8][9][10], contact processes [10,11], or interacting Hawkes processes [12]. In particular, infectious diseases have been modeled by so-called susceptible-infectious models or generalizations thereof [13], whereas spikepropagation in neural networks has been modeled by socalled branching networks [14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22], Hawkes processes [23][24][25], or probabilistic integrate-and-fire networks [26,27]. These models can be either constructed as independentinteraction models (static interactions), or as threshold models with interactions depending on the states of the interacting partners [28].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…DBI was not specifically designed to recover 839 envelope time series, and assumes basis functions to represent dynamics, but could be 840 applied to envelope dynamics inference. Additionally, the direct method can be 841 improved using multiple linear regressions and derivative estimates with various time 842 lags [62], in particular for linear dynamics. The passage method may find productive 843 applications in other parts of the neurosciences -for instance in the field of memory, 844 where beta and gamma bursts [63], and the duration of sharp wave ripples [64] have 845 been found to be related to memory -and beyond.…”
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confidence: 99%
“…All parameters of the model, the sampling and the 61 analysis are closely matched to those known from experiments 62 (see Methods).63Branching dynamics on a local 2D topology 64 In order to evaluate sampling effects, we want to precisely 65 set the underlying dynamics. Therefore, we employ the es-66 tablished branching model, which is well understood analyti-67 cally [9,25,32,33]. Inspired by biological neuronal networks, 68 we simulate the branching dynamics on a dense 2D topology 69 with N = 160 000 neurons where each neuron is connected 70 to ≈ 1000 local neighbors.…”
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confidence: 99%
“…In particular, the reverberating regime covers a specific range ideal baseline [25] from which brain areas or neural circuits can 357 adapt to meet task demands [35,[46][47][48][49][50][51][52].…”
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confidence: 99%
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