Infection Is the Cycle: Unemployment, Output and Economic Policies in the COVID-19 Pandemic

Góes, Maria Cristina Barbieri; Cristina, Maria Luisa; Gallo, Ettore; Ettore,

doi:10.1080/09538259.2020.1861817

Cited by 19 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…For example, Barrot et al (2020) estimate that a 10% increase in state-level labour restrictions in the US led to a 3% drop in employment and a 1.87% drop in the market value of firms in April 2020 alone. The unemployment rate in this period was the highest in American history, at 14.7% (BLS, 2021;Goes & Gallo, 2021). It is a very similar increase in the unemployment rate as was estimated in our study in Slovakia, although these are very different countries.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

Evaluation of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of the unemployment rate in Slovakia: counterfactual before-after comparison

Švábová

Tesárová

Ďurica

et al. 2021

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Research background: The COVID-19 pandemic, which hit the world in the first quarter of 2020, has impacted almost every area of people's lives. Many states have introduced varying degrees of measures to prevent its spread. Most of these measures were, or still are, aimed at reducing or completely stopping the operation of shops and services, or in some cases, also the large manufacturing companies. However, as many companies have failed to cope with these restrictions, unemployment has risen in almost all EU countries. A similar situation was also observed in Slovakia, where the mentioned measures also had a significant impact on unemployment. Purpose of the article: In this study, we deal with the quantification of the impact of a pandemic, or more precisely, anti-pandemic measures, on the development of the registered unemployment rate in Slovakia. Methods: This quantification is based on the counterfactual method of before-after comparison, which is one of the most widely used methods in the field of impact assessments and brings very accurate results, based on real data. In the analysis, we use officially published data on the unemployment rate in Slovakia during the years 2013?2020 on a monthly basis. Such a long time series, using statistical methods of its decomposition and modelling of its trend, will allow predicting the development of the unemployment rate in Slovakia, assuming a counterfactual situation of no pandemic, and compare this development with the actual situation that occurred during 2020. Findings & Value added: The study results indicate an increase in the unemployment rate in Slovakia during 2020 by 2?3% compared to the trend of its development, which would have occurred without a pandemic. Given the counterfactual method used, this difference can be described as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The results of the study can be used in practice in the design and implementation of measures introduced to mitigate the impacts of the pandemic on unemployment and, in the long-term perspective, also to eliminate these effects as much as possible. It can also be used as a theoretical tool in conducting impact assessments, which have so far been carried out very rarely in Slovakia.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

Evaluation of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of the unemployment rate in Slovakia: counterfactual before-after comparison

Švábová

Tesárová

Ďurica

et al. 2021

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“…To this end, countries have taken the strategy such as closing borders, blocking global personnel flow to prevent the spread of novel coronavirus. This is a short-term emergency measure for long-term economic development [2]. Although, after a while, international trade slowly recovered, but the more crisis occurred at home.…”

Section: Causes Of the Global Unemploymentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In view of the current situation of the labor market, such as highly inactive economic activities, increasing long-term unemployment and employment inequality, it should be emphasized that it is not only necessary to extend unemployment benefits, but also urgently need to take major policy intervention to meet the total demand, especially for low-income groups. In the research of Maria, Barbieri and Gallo, they found that the current stimulus policy and the maintenance of aggregate demand in the United States play a key role in preventing the labor market fluctuations caused by the repeated pandemic waves, while reducing the negative impact of unemployment on GDP [2].…”

Section: Solutions To Unemploymentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the World Unemployment Rate and Solutions in the Context of COVID-19

Hong¹

2021

Proceedings of the 2021 International Conference on Public Relations and Social Sciences (ICPRSS 2021)

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The novel coronavirus pneumonia is also known as a global pandemic. Since it was firstly discovered in December 2019, the world has entered a high-risk moment. This moment has a great impact on the global economy, especially in the period of economic globalization. This paper will discuss the global unemployment situation caused by the economic crisis which is due to COVID-19 and may propose some feasible solutions. This paper will mainly analyze the unemployment situation during the epidemic period according to the existing research data. Data sources include experiments by scholars or reports from international organizations. This paper concludes the causes of high unemployment rate and the current situation of unemployment.

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“…Constructing a two‐equation dynamical system of COVID‐19 positivity rate and the unemployment rate, Barbieri‐Góes and Gallo (2021) capture the evolution of COVID‐19 and its effects on the economy. They get both endemic‐free and endemic equilibria, whereas the endemic equilibrium, as they suggest, is more realistic.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the absence of extensive vaccination, the endemic equilibrium causes pandemic‐driven waves in the unemployment rate. Barbieri‐Góes and Gallo (2021) then simulate the unemployment shock on the overall level of economic activity and find that the shock causes negative effect on the output level. Moreover, in the absence of adequate stimulus policies, the emergence of cyclical downswings may determine an L‐shaped recession in the medium run.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A simple macro‐model of COVID‐19 with special reference to India

Parui

2021

Metroeconomica

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Motivated by the prevailing severe situation in India, we extend the SIR(S) model of infectious diseases to incorporate demand dynamics and its interaction with COVID‐19 spread. We argue that, on one hand, the spread of COVID‐19 creates panic among consumers and firms and negatively affects economic activity. On the other hand, economic activity intensifies the spread of the infection. Initially assuming that recovered individuals do not develop antibodies and become susceptible again, we capture the interaction between economic activity and the spread of the disease in a two‐dimensional dynamical system. We show that a large fiscal expansion combined with measures to boost community health and improve the health sector's capacity to provide critical care can simultaneously improve the economy and control the spread of the disease. Finally, assuming that only a fraction of recovered individuals become susceptible to contracting the diseases again, we obtain richer dynamics in a three‐dimensional dynamical system. This paper also highlights the important role of infection rates and the recovery rate in determining the uniqueness and the stability properties of steady state.

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Infection Is the Cycle: Unemployment, Output and Economic Policies in the COVID-19 Pandemic

Cited by 19 publications

References 21 publications

Evaluation of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of the unemployment rate in Slovakia: counterfactual before-after comparison

Evaluation of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of the unemployment rate in Slovakia: counterfactual before-after comparison

Analysis of the World Unemployment Rate and Solutions in the Context of COVID-19

A simple macro‐model of COVID‐19 with special reference to India

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