Infant Mortality in Uganda: Determinants, Trends and the Millennium Development Goals

Abstract

We are grateful to David Sahn and Peter Glick for comments. This research is supported by SAGA, a cooperative agreement between USAID and Cornell and Clark-Atlanta Universities. See www.saga.cornell.edu. AbstractUnusually for an African economy, Uganda's growth has been rapid and sustained for an extended period of time. Further, this growth has clearly translated into substantial declines in poverty for all socio-economic groups and in all regions of the country. Despite this, there is concern in the country that other indicators of well-being are not improving at the same rate as incomes. This paper studies one such indicator, infant mortality. We use three rounds of the Uganda Demographic and Health Surveys to construct a national time series for infant mortality over a long period of time, 1974-1999. We also use these survey data to model the determinants of infant mortality and, based on those results, to examine the likelihood that Uganda will meet the Millennium Development Goal of halving infant mortality by 2015.Key results of the paper include:• household incomes and infant mortality are significantly negatively correlated, but the correlation is small, so that even if Uganda's rapid growth were to continue for another decade the impact on IMRs will be small up to 2015; • after controlling for individual, household, and community determinants, there is no discernable time trend (up or down) in infant mortality in Uganda; • observed improvements in mothers' primary school graduation rates will have a significant impact on IMRs. Plausibly attainable improvements in mothers' secondary graduation rates will have a lesser impact, largely because the improvements in graduation rates are not as great as at the primary level; • improvements in vaccinations for childhood diseases and in general health care services can also cause significant reductions in IMRs; • nevertheless, even under optimistic assumptions about improvements in health care and education, Uganda will not achieve the MDG for infant mortality.

New trends in under-five mortality determinants and their effects on child survival in Nigeria: A review of childhood mortality data from 1990-2008

“…Children born after a short interval to the previous birth generally present higher mortality risks (Manda, 1999). Many studies have reported that males have higher mortality rates at all ages of childhood (Hill and Upchurch, 1995;Lavy et al 1996;Ssewanyana and Younger, 2007). Similar evidence on the effects of biodemographic factors have been provided by Nigerian studies (Adewuyi and Feyisetan, 1988;Ahonsi, 1995;Lawoyin, 2007).…”

Government Health Care Spending and Child Mortality

“…Increasing the rate of vaccination to 100% was considered the most influential and probably most costeffective intervention, reducing infant deaths by 16 per 1000 births. 35 Other high-impact child survival interventions shown to quickly reduce mortality include appropriate treatment of childhood diarrhea and pneumonia. 4 Our study demonstrates the need for additional research into the mechanisms by which economic factors affect child mortality in lowincome countries, to encourage policies and interventions that will effectively reduce preventable child deaths.…”

A multilevel analysis of factors influencing child mortality in Ghana

“…Evidence has shown that household income affect child mortality negatively. For example, Ssewanyana and Younger (2004) found that in Uganda higher household income and infant mortality were negatively correlated. This may be explained by the fact that wealthier households have the capacity to provide good nutrition, shelter and health care services for children.…”