Industry cash flow volatility and stock price crash risk

Abstract

This study examines the effect of industry cash flow volatility on the risks of stock price crash by investigating Chinese A‐share listed companies from 2005 to 2015. Findings reveal that increases in the degree of volatility in industry cash flow significantly increase the risk of a stock price crash, and the conclusion remains valid after the robustness test. Further empirical research reveals that a higher level of product market competition and a higher level of policy uncertainty increase the positive effect of industry cash flow volatility on stock price crash risks, which confirms the moderating effect of product market competition and policy uncertainty. The effect of reducing the degree of accounting conservatism and increasing the optimism of analysts' earnings forecasts is analyzed and revealed as interim steps in the mechanism of the effect of industry cash flow volatility on the company's stock price crash risk. Overall, this evidence highlights the severe consequence of industry cash flow volatility on crash risks, which should encourage researchers, investors, and regulators to address the management of industry cash flow volatility.

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