Industrial Production and Non-oil Export: Assessing the Long-run Implication on Economic Growth in Nigeria

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to identify the role industrial sector plays in driving the GDP of Nigeria. The paper further seeks to predict the long-run behavioral relationship between industrial production, non-oil exports and economic growth in Nigeria using data from 1970 -2007. Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) was utilized to establish the co-integrating relationship between industrial production, non-oil exports and GDP. The paper reveals the existence of a positive and significant uni-directional relationship that runs from industrial production to non-oil exports. It was further evident in the study that the current policies on industrial production in Nigerian do not sufficiently encourage non-oil export. The paper therefore predicts an imminent collapse of the Nigerian manufacturing industries in the nearest future if immediate remedial measures are not quickly taken to strengthen the ailing industries. The paper among other things encourages the government to strengthen the legislative and supervisory framework of the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme in Nigeria.

Determinants of industrial output in Syria

“…Furthermore, the new Syrian government's strategy to diversify Syrian exports, open up the Syrian economy to foreign trade, and reduce the percentage share of raw materials in total Syrian exports have motivated the Syrian producers to increase and improve their production in order to achieve higher profits from exporting abroad. Our finding is in line with that of Mamun and Nath (2005); Uddin and Noman (2011);Akpan et al (2012) who argued that exports have a positive effect on industrial production.…”

“…However, in a more recent study, Uddin and Noman (2011) found the relationship to be bidirectional for the same country. In contrast, Akpan et al (2012) discovered a positive unidirectional causality moving from industrial production to non-oil exports in Nigeria.…”

Effects of dynamic variables on industrial output in one of the world’s fastest-growing countries: case evidence from India

“…International trade can influence the industrial output in different directions, a study pursued by Al Mamun and Nath [6] in Bangladesh opined that there was a long-run positive causality running from export to industrial production over the period. In another study, Akpan et al [5] assessed the relationship between non-oil export and industrial output in Nigerian economy and found that there was a positive unidirectional causality escalating from industrial output to non-oil export.…”

Exportações e crescimento nas economias africanas

“…Em linha, Celina e Enyim (2012) argumentam que, apesar de a capacidade de exportação impactar positivamente o crescimento nos países em desenvolvimento, especialmente na Nigéria, esse impacto é prejudicado pelas flutuações nas exportações dos principais produtos, que dependem de preços que são mais voláteis e geralmente mais baixos em relação aos produtos manufaturados. Akpan et al (2012) avaliam o papel do setor industrial na trajetória do PIB nigeriano por meio da relação entre produção industrial, exportações não petrolíferas e crescimento econômico no período 1970-2007. Os autores identificam uma relação de longo prazo positiva entre a produção industrial e as exportações não petrolíferas.…”