Industrial Policies and Evolutionary Paths: A Case Study of the Impact of the Greek Investment Law to Effect Investment Decisions of Greek Firms

Abstract

The main objective of the article is to test the difficulty of changing evolutionary paths, by studying the evolution of the sectoral outcomes of one of the basic regional and industrial policy tools in Greece, the Greek Investment Law (GIL), through a brief analysis the past and present experience of GILs. Based on a unique database of the past four GILS, I will try to comment on the effectiveness of the policies in altering the investment decisions of Greek firms, in the light of the national Smart Specialisation Strategy (3S), particularly focusing on the current law (for which there is some preliminary unpublished data), which incorporates -but is not limited to -the sectoral priorities of the Greek National 3S Strategy, and the degree to which this is visible in the preliminary data. More specifically, I will focus on the extent of visible changes in the sectoral distribution of the recent GILs and whether these seem to converge to the targets of the Greek National Smart Specialization Strategy and whether the lack of convergence can be ascribed to the workings of evolutionary mechanisms and in particular a political and cognitive lock-in.