Inductive Processes, Heuristics, and Biases Modulated by High-Reliability Organizing (HRO) for COVID-19 and Disasters

Abstract

event, the authors initially hear stories that don't match how people act in threatening circumstances (1). The stories only make sense through publicly accepted beliefs, heuristics, and logic. A supportive challenge to the description of their actions, while the authors let the person know they had been in similar situations, quickly changes the narrative to one more consistent with human experience." "This is not a trivial distinction; private logic is quite visible in the first minutes or hours after a tragedy as events expose the raw beliefs of each person. Because we otherwise have no access to people's intimate internal logic, some behaviors and beliefs may not make sense to us unless we appreciate this private internal logic."

Operational Logics and Inference During [1/f or f -1] Noise Events: High-Reliability Operations (HRO)

“…In the red noise environment, we have a logic of practice that differs from the laboratory or office -one that paradoxically applies to the well-controlled lab or office environment and for red Noise forcing functions and abrupt pink noise catastrophes. We use inductive reasoning and heuristics (18), loop decision making (19), and practical common-sense problem solving (20). In this paper, we discuss modal, paraconsistent, and topological logics.…”

Disaster Series: Prolonged Improvisation during Hurricanes – High Reliability Organizing in the NICU

“…We do not need to make any special distinction between normal environmental variation and catastrophes; they are the same thing experienced at different scales (2,3). Operators in dangerous contexts seek the necessary capabilities for likely threats, particularly capabilities they can generalize to unforeseen threats or that will extend operations into novel situations (4). Disaster response, like routine operations, is about accuracy and responsiveness rather than belief in concepts (5)(6)(7)(8).…”