Induced seismicity risk analysis of the 2006 Basel, Switzerland, Enhanced Geothermal System project: Influence of uncertainties on risk mitigation

Mignan, Arnaud; Landtwing, Delano; Kästli, Philipp; Mena, Banu; Wiemer, Stefan

doi:10.1016/j.geothermics.2014.05.007

Cited by 93 publications

(75 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…While the TLS applied at Pohang was only considering magnitude thresholds, it has been proposed to define thresholds in terms of peak ground velocity determined based on levels of motion that could cause damage (Bommer et al, 2006). Risk-based TLSs were proposed by Douglas & Aochi, 2014, in terms of the risk of nuisance, and by Mignan et al, 2015, in terms of damage potential. For induced seismicity in the central United States, recent studies assess induced seismic risk by quantifying the damage to and seismic losses for specific building types (Chase et al, 2019) and life safety risks to building occupants (Liu et al, 2019).…”

Section: 1029/2019gl085878mentioning

confidence: 99%

Value at Induced Risk: Injection‐Induced Seismic Risk From Low‐Probability, High‐Impact Events

Langenbruch

Ellsworth

Woo

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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The increasing number of damaging earthquakes, induced by underground injection of fluids, demonstrates the need of a structured methodology for critical thinking about and clear communication of induced seismic risk. Using the Pohang, South Korea, geothermal project and the damaging (US$75M) local magnitude ML 5.35 induced earthquake in 2017, we present a straightforward methodology that summarizes induced seismic risk in a single time‐dependent number, the Value at Induced Risk (VaIR). VaIR quantifies the amount of economic losses that will not be exceeded at a given confidence level. Our method reveals that the Pohang project was exposed to a 2% chance of causing economic losses of US$140M or more (1% of US$3.2B or more). The high risk could have been identified during the sequence of reservoir stimulation, lasting almost 2 years. VaIR opens new ways to assess and communicate risk to all stakeholders for informed risk management decision making.

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Section: 1029/2019gl085878mentioning

confidence: 99%

Value at Induced Risk: Injection‐Induced Seismic Risk From Low‐Probability, High‐Impact Events

Langenbruch

Ellsworth

Woo

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Although the Basel geothermal project failed, the collected data of the induced seismicity improved our understanding of EGS in several scientific studies that investigated the reservoir structure and the orientation of fault planes (e. g., Asanuma et al, ; Dyer et al, ; Dyer et al, ; Deichmann et al, ; Kraft & Deichmann, ), performed statistical analyses for earthquake forecasting purposes (e.g., Bachmann et al, ; Mena et al, ; Gischig & Wiemer, ; Király‐Proag et al, ), modeled geomechanical properties (e.g., Goertz‐Allmann et al, ; Goertz‐Allmann & Wiemer, ; Bachmann et al, ), studied the larger events in terms of their trigger mechanism (e.g., Mukuhira et al, ) and rupture propagation (e.g., Folesky et al, ), analyzed ground motion and macroseismic intensities (e.g., Edwards et al, ; Ripperger et al, ), and performed seismic risk analysis (e.g., Baisch et al, ; Mignan et al, ). These studies benefited from the six‐station borehole seismometer network (three stations used in this study are shown in Figure ) and a surface network with 30 stations in the area (Deichmann & Ernst, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Consistent High‐Resolution Catalog of Induced Seismicity in Basel Based on Matched Filter Detection and Tailored Post‐Processing

et al. 2019

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Seismic monitoring of the Basel Enhanced Geothermal System has been running for more than a decade. Yet the details of the long‐term behavior of its induced seismicity remained unexplored because a seismic event catalog with consistent detection sensitivity and magnitudes did not exist. This knowledge is essential for developing guidelines and mitigation procedures on how to safely operate and terminate injection activities. Only few observational data exist that cover all phases of such projects in a consistent manner. Here we describe a method that overcomes these deficiencies based on sensitive matched filter detection and a machine learning approach to remove false detections. With an emphasis on consistency, we create a catalog that contains more than 280,000 events down to Mw−1.5. The much higher temporal resolution allows us to analyze induced microearthquakes in great detail and to gain new insights. We resolved temporal variations of seismicity parameters and, in the post‐operational phase, a preferential temporal clustering of events. We find a breakdown in the Gutenberg‐Richter scaling during reservoir stimulation, which may have physical reasons or could be caused by a method‐independent detection limit during high event rates. The scaling breakdown has implications for the design of Adaptive Traffic Light Systems and may limit the potential of real‐time mitigation strategies in future Enhanced Geothermal System projects. Nevertheless, our catalog gives the opportunity to study the temporal evolution of the sequence in unprecedented detail, which will help to better understand the physical processes in a geothermal reservoir, potentially not only in the Basel case.

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“…Specifically, operations in geothermal fields often lead to considerable increase of seismic activity in areas which were previously characterized by low or even no seismicity and negligible hazard levels (e.g. Majer et al 2007;Mignan et al 2015). The most important feature of seismicity (either induced or triggered) in geothermal fields is its direct correspondence to and dependence on the operational processes, such as fluid injection or production volumes, rates and pressures (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution of seismicity in relation to fluid injection in the North-Western part of The Geysers geothermal field

Leptokaropoulos¹,

Staszek²,

Lasocki³

et al. 2017

Geophysical Journal International

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S U M M A R YThe Geysers geothermal field located in California, USA, is the largest geothermal site in the world, operating since the 1960s. We here investigate and quantify the correlation between temporal seismicity evolution and variation of the injection data by examination of timeseries through specified statistical tools (binomial test to investigate significant rate changes, cross correlation between seismic and injection data, b-value variation analysis). To do so, we utilize seismicity and operational data associated with two injection wells (Prati-9 and Prati-29) which cover a time period of approximately 7 yr (from November 2007 to August 2014). The seismicity is found to be significantly positively correlated with the injection rate. The maximum correlation occurs with a seismic response delay of ∼2 weeks, following injection operations. Those results are very stable even after considering hypocentral uncertainties, by applying a vertical shift of the events foci up to 300 m. Our analysis indicates also time variations of b-value, which exhibits significant positive correlation with injection rates.

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Induced seismicity risk analysis of the 2006 Basel, Switzerland, Enhanced Geothermal System project: Influence of uncertainties on risk mitigation

Cited by 93 publications

References 46 publications

Value at Induced Risk: Injection‐Induced Seismic Risk From Low‐Probability, High‐Impact Events

Value at Induced Risk: Injection‐Induced Seismic Risk From Low‐Probability, High‐Impact Events

A Consistent High‐Resolution Catalog of Induced Seismicity in Basel Based on Matched Filter Detection and Tailored Post‐Processing

Evolution of seismicity in relation to fluid injection in the North-Western part of The Geysers geothermal field

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