Induced seismicity red-light thresholds for enhanced geothermal prospects in the Netherlands

Schultz, Ryan; Muntendam-Bos, A.G.; Zhou, Wen; Beroza, G. C.; Ellsworth, William L.

doi:10.1016/j.geothermics.2022.102580

Cited by 6 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…empirically derived nuisance tolerances against other measured tolerances (Figure 9, Schultz et al, 2022bSchultz et al, , 2021b. We find that UK tolerances to nuisance are most like the risks implicitly taken by TLPs in Alberta, despite the significantly different red-light magnitude thresholds chosen there (i.e., M L 3.0 near Red Deer and M L 4.0 near Fox Creek).…”

Section: Justification Of Risk Metrics and Risk Tolerance Choicesmentioning

confidence: 68%

“…In this sense, our selected nuisance tolerance threatens to end an operation (regardless of the existence of a predefined red-light). Last, we check these 6) is compared to estimates in North America and the Netherlands (Schultz et al, 2021b(Schultz et al, , 2022b. The 50 th percentile of the nuisance tolerance distribution, used to select the nuisance tolerance, is shown as green dashed line.…”

Section: Justification Of Risk Metrics and Risk Tolerance Choicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Earthquakes can be induced by anthropogenic activities such as mining, wastewater disposal, and geothermal systems (Foulger et al, 2018). Hydraulic fracturing (HF), a petroleum extraction technique that stimulates fractures by injecting fluids into the subsurface under high pressure (Bickle et al, 2012), has also been documented to cause earthquakes (Atkinson et al, 2020;Schultz et al, 2022b). Yet, most HF operations do not cause noteworthy (e.g., felt) earthquakes (Atkinson et al, 2016;Verdon and Rodríguez-Pradilla, 2023) and only susceptible regions appear to preferentially host larger induced events (Schultz et al, 2018;Pawley et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Figure 9Worldwide nuisance tolerance estimates. The distribution of CDI 3 nuisance tolerance (box-and-whisker plots; boxes show 25-50-75 percentiles) for the UK (Figure6) is compared to estimates in North America and the Netherlands(Schultz et al, 2021b(Schultz et al, , 2022b. The 50 th percentile of the nuisance tolerance distribution, used to select the nuisance tolerance, is shown as green dashed line.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Red-light thresholds for induced seismicity in the UK

Schultz,

Baptie,

Edwards

et al. 2023

Seismica

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Induced earthquakes pose a serious hurdle to subsurface energy development. Concerns about induced seismicity led to terminal public opposition of hydraulic fracturing in the UK. Traffic light protocols (TLPs) are typically used to manage these risks, with the red-light designed as the last-possible stopping-point before exceeding a risk tolerance. We simulate trailing earthquake scenarios for the UK, focusing on three risk metrics: nuisance, damage, and local personal risk (LPR) – the likelihood of building collapse fatality for an individual. The severity of these risks can spatially vary (by orders-of-magnitude), depending on exposure. Estimated risks from the Preston New Road earthquakes are used to calibrate our UK earthquake risk tolerances, which we find to be comparable to Albertan (Canadian) tolerances. We find that nuisance and damage concerns supersede those from fatality and that the safest regions for Bowland Shale development would be along the east coast. A retrospective comparison of our TLP result with the Preston New Road case highlights the importance of red-light thresholds that adapt to new information. Overall, our findings provide recommendations for red-light thresholds (ML 2-2.5) and proactive management of induced seismicity – regardless of anthropogenic source.

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Section: Justification Of Risk Metrics and Risk Tolerance Choicesmentioning

confidence: 68%

Section: Justification Of Risk Metrics and Risk Tolerance Choicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Red-light thresholds for induced seismicity in the UK

Schultz,

Baptie,

Edwards

et al. 2023

Seismica

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“…However, it is important to note that all geothermal wells in the Netherlands exploit the same sandstone formation (Rotliegend) as the gas field for production (Buijze et al, 2019). Furthermore, the sensitivity of the population to induced seismicity in connection to the Groningen gas field can have an impact on the perception of existing and future geothermal projects (Schultz et al, 2022). The placement of geothermal power plants in close proximity to consumers poses a major challenge, especially in the case of heat generation plants.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating seismicity rates with Coulomb failure stress models caused by pore pressure and thermal stress from operating a well doublet in a generic geothermal reservoir in the Netherlands

Hutka

Cacace

Hofmann

et al. 2023

Netherlands Journal of Geosciences

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The utilisation of geothermal energy in the Netherlands is primarily focused on deep sedimentary aquifers, which are often intersected by major faults. Geothermal operations (i.e. fluid production and injection) may alter the effective stress state along these faults and trigger induced seismic events. Pore pressure perturbations have been generally considered the main driver of injection-induced seismicity. However, thermal stresses caused by temperature gradients between the re-injected cold fluid and the reservoir rock may also contribute to the triggering of earthquakes in geothermal reservoirs. While existing geothermal power plants operating in sandstone reservoirs did not produce any major induced seismicity, it is a matter of debate whether a reduction in the temperature of the re-injected fluid could increase the seismic hazard potential. In this study, we applied modified Gutenberg–Richter statistics based on frictional Coulomb stress variations implemented in a coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical model to estimate the seismic hazard caused by the operation of a geothermal doublet. We conducted a systematic parametric study to assess and rank the impact of different intrinsic (geological) and extrinsic (operational) parameters on the induced seismic hazard potential. We identified a competing mechanism between induced variations in pore pressure and thermal stress within the reservoir in controlling induced seismicity. We found that stress changes induced by pore pressure variations are the main cause of seismic hazard, although thermally induced stresses also contribute significantly. The results indicate that by optimising the operational parameters it is possible to increase production efficiency while maintaining a long-term control over the fluid injection-induced seismicity.

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