Induced seismicity of the Groningen gas field: History and recent developments

Thienen-Visser, K. van; Breunese, J.N.

doi:10.1190/tle34060664.1

Cited by 192 publications

(117 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…Initially, the subsidence rate was slow between 1964 and 1974, with an increase in the subsidence rate from 1974 to 2013. This surface deformation pattern is consistent with earlier studies (van Thienen‐Visser & Breunese, ; Bierman et al, ; NAM, ), showing the center of subsidence in the northern section of the reservoir. Comparison between the maximum subsidence and the mean reservoir pressure depletion (Figure ) shows good agreement across the period of 1964–2013.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 92%

Reconciling the Long‐Term Relationship Between Reservoir Pore Pressure Depletion and Compaction in the Groningen Region

et al. 2019

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The Groningen gas reservoir, situated in the northeast of the Netherlands is western Europe's largest gas reservoir. Due to gas production measurable subsidence and seismicity has been detected across this region, attributed to the deformations induced by reservoir pore pressure depletion. We investigate the surface displacement history using a principal component analysis‐based inversion method to combine a diverse set of optical leveling, interferometric synthetic aperture radar, and Global Positioning System data to better constrain reservoir compaction and subsidence history. The generated compaction model is then used in combination with prior pressure depletion models to determine a reservoir uniaxial compressibility. The best fitting model of uniaxial compressibility is time independent but spatially variable. The absence of evidence for any significant time delay between changes in depletion and compaction rates supports an instantaneous poroelastic reservoir response. The absence of nonlinear yielding at the largest compaction strains suggests that anelastic deformations are a minor part of reservoir compaction.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 92%

Reconciling the Long‐Term Relationship Between Reservoir Pore Pressure Depletion and Compaction in the Groningen Region

et al. 2019

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“…Models neglecting fluid flow and reservoir offset could not predict such a strong shear stress increase. Since seismicity has indeed increased exponentially at some sites [e.g., van Thienen‐Visser and Breunese , ], we consider our modeling results in this respect to be realistic.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the physics‐based processes behind production‐induced seismicity in natural gas fields

Zbinden¹,

Rinaldi²,

Urpi³

et al. 2017

JGR Solid Earth

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Induced seismicity due to natural gas production is observed at different sites worldwide. Common understanding states that the pressure drop caused by gas production leads to compaction, which affects the stress field in the reservoir and the surrounding rock formations and hence reactivates preexisting faults and induces earthquakes. In this study, we show that the multiphase fluid flow involved in natural gas extraction activities should be included. We use a fully coupled fluid flow and geomechanics simulator, which accounts for stress‐dependent permeability and linear poroelasticity, to better determine the conditions leading to fault reactivation. In our model setup, gas is produced from a porous reservoir, divided into two compartments that are offset by a normal fault. Results show that fluid flow plays a major role in pore pressure and stress evolution within the fault. Fault strength is significantly reduced due to fluid flow into the fault zone from the neighboring reservoir compartment and other formations. We also analyze scenarios for minimizing seismicity after a period of production, such as (i) well shut‐in and (ii) gas reinjection. In the case of well shut‐in, a highly stressed fault zone can still be reactivated several decades after production has ceased, although on average the shut‐in results in a reduction in seismicity. In the case of gas reinjection, fault reactivation can be avoided if gas is injected directly into the compartment under depletion. However, gas reinjection into a neighboring compartment does not stop the fault from being reactivated.

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“…(14)(15)(16)(17) The flat Dutch northeast is an historically aseismic region whose current, man-made environmental safety problems were practically unanticipated during the first 25 years of gas field exploitation. (18) Particularly after 2000, annual gas extraction and the frequency and severity of earthquakes steadily increased until early 2014, when the government initiated a strategy of stepwise diminishing extraction.…”

Section: Vlekmentioning

confidence: 99%

Induced Earthquakes from Long‐Term Gas Extraction in Groningen, the Netherlands: Statistical Analysis and Prognosis for Acceptable‐Risk Regulation

Vlek¹

2018

Risk Analysis

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Recently, growing earthquake activity in the northeastern Netherlands has aroused considerable concern among the 600,000 provincial inhabitants. There, at 3 km deep, the rich Groningen gas field extends over 900 km2 and still contains about 600 of the original 2,800 billion cubic meters (bcm). Particularly after 2001, earthquakes have increased in number, magnitude (M, on the logarithmic Richter scale), and damage to numerous buildings. The man‐made nature of extraction‐induced earthquakes challenges static notions of risk, complicates formal risk assessment, and questions familiar conceptions of acceptable risk. Here, a 26‐year set of 294 earthquakes with M ≥ 1.5 is statistically analyzed in relation to increasing cumulative gas extraction since 1963. Extrapolations from a fast‐rising trend over 2001–2013 indicate that—under “business as usual”—around 2021 some 35 earthquakes with M ≥ 1.5 might occur annually, including four with M ≥ 2.5 (ten‐fold stronger), and one with M ≥ 3.5 every 2.5 years. Given this uneasy prospect, annual gas extraction has been reduced from 54 bcm in 2013 to 24 bcm in 2017. This has significantly reduced earthquake activity, so far. However, when extraction is stabilized at 24 bcm per year for 2017–2021 (or 21.6 bcm, as judicially established in Nov. 2017), the annual number of earthquakes would gradually increase again, with an expected all‐time maximum M ≈ 4.5. Further safety management may best follow distinct stages of seismic risk generation, with moderation of gas extraction and massive (but late and slow) building reinforcement as outstanding strategies. Officially, “acceptable risk” is mainly approached by quantification of risk (e.g., of fatal building collapse) for testing against national safety standards, but actual (local) risk estimation remains problematic. Additionally important are societal cost–benefit analysis, equity considerations, and precautionary restraint. Socially and psychologically, deliberate attempts are made to improve risk communication, reduce public anxiety, and restore people's confidence in responsible experts and policymakers.

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Induced seismicity of the Groningen gas field: History and recent developments

Cited by 192 publications

References 5 publications

Reconciling the Long‐Term Relationship Between Reservoir Pore Pressure Depletion and Compaction in the Groningen Region

Reconciling the Long‐Term Relationship Between Reservoir Pore Pressure Depletion and Compaction in the Groningen Region

On the physics‐based processes behind production‐induced seismicity in natural gas fields

Induced Earthquakes from Long‐Term Gas Extraction in Groningen, the Netherlands: Statistical Analysis and Prognosis for Acceptable‐Risk Regulation

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