Indonesian Climate under 2°C and 4°C Global Warming: Precipitation Extremes

Abstract

The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, is intended to limit global warming well below 2°C. This paper is aimed to assess the potential key impact of 2°C and 4°C global warming on the characteristics of precipitation extremes over Indonesia. For this purpose, the CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 global projections forced by the representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5) scenario is dynamically downscaled using the RegCM modelling system. The results show that under these two global warming level, total annual precipitation (PRCPTOT) will decrease in most regions. Consistently, the dry spell duration (CDD, consecutive dry days) is projected to increase. On the other hand, the frequency and the intensity of precipitation extremes (R50mm and RX1day) are projected with mix increase and decrease tendency. Seasonally, the contrast changing of PRCPTOT is projected. PRCPTOT tends to decrease during dry season (June-July-August, JJA) and tends to increase during wet season (December-January-February, DJF). The similar pattern is found for other indices e.g. CDD, R50mm and RX1day. In general, changes at 4°C global warming are statistically more significant and more intensified compared to that at 2°C. Our findings suggest the benefit of limiting global warming at a lower level.

Transcriptomic responses of oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) stem to waterlogging at plantation in relation to precipitation seasonality

“…A previous study stated that oil palms are quite tolerant of high-water tables but are nevertheless vulnerable to continuous waterlogging, which may provoke stress responses similar to those induced by drought ( Rivera-Mendes et al., 2016 ). Some studies have projected waterlogging is common in Sumatra during the rainy season, and the Indonesian government has even listed Lampung as a city at severe risk due to climate anomalies ( Supari et al., 2017 ; Supari et al., 2019 ; Tangang et al., 2020 ; Mukhlis and Perdana, 2022 ). Additionally, many studies have affirmed that oil palm requires an even distribution of annual rainfall with a total precipitation of at least 2000 mm per annum or 100 mm per month for optimal growth ( Hartley, 1988 ; Corley and Tinker, 2003 ; Carr, 2011 ; Paramananthan, 2013 ).…”

Drought index analysis on the Nusantara Capital City of Indonesia (IKN)

“…for example, the dry spell duration is projected to increase. However, the frequency and the intensity of precipitation extremes (RX1day) is projected with a mixed increase and decrease tendency 6 . Based on the National Agency for Disaster Management data (BNPB) in 2022, drought in East Kalimantan was classified as middle level meanwhile forest fire was classified as high level 7 .…”