Individual Uncertainty and the Uncertainty of Science: The Impact of Perceived Conflict and General Self-Efficacy on the Perception of Tentativeness and Credibility of Scientific Information

Abstract

We examined in two empirical studies how situational and personal aspects of uncertainty influence laypeople’s understanding of the uncertainty of scientific information, with focus on the detection of tentativeness and perception of scientific credibility. In the first study (N = 48), we investigated the impact of a perceived conflict due to contradicting information as a situational, text-inherent aspect of uncertainty. The aim of the second study (N = 61) was to explore the role of general self-efficacy as an intra-personal uncertainty factor. In Study 1, participants read one of two versions of an introductory text in a between-group design. This text provided them with an overview about the neurosurgical procedure of deep brain stimulation (DBS). The text expressed a positive attitude toward DBS in one experimental condition or focused on the negative aspects of this method in the other condition. Then participants in both conditions read the same text that dealt with a study about DBS as experimental treatment in a small sample of patients with major depression. Perceived conflict between the two texts was found to increase the perception of tentativeness and to decrease the perception of scientific credibility, implicating that text-inherent aspects have significant effects on critical appraisal. The results of Study 2 demonstrated that participants with higher general self-efficacy detected the tentativeness to a lesser degree and assumed a higher level of scientific credibility, indicating a more naïve understanding of scientific information. This appears to be contradictory to large parts of previous findings that showed positive effects of high self-efficacy on learning. Both studies showed that perceived tentativeness and perceived scientific credibility of medical information contradicted each other. We conclude that there is a need for supporting laypeople in understanding the uncertainty of scientific information and that scientific writers should consider how to present scientific results when compiling pertinent texts.

Constraints and Affordances of Online Engagement With Scientific Information—A Literature Review

“…While laypeople adequately assess argument strength to be greater when it is supported by a greater amount of evidence (Corner and Hahn, 2009;Hendriks et al, 2020), they may sometimes not take prior studies into account when assessing the probability of an effect to be true (Thompson et al, 2020). Individuals might assume that the tentativeness included in scientific information means that the scientific results have limited credibility (Flemming et al, 2015); however, in one study that gave readers a refutation text alerting them that this assumption is wrong, the assumption was successfully reduced (Flemming et al, 2020). Similarly, a stronger epistemic belief regarding the uncertainty of science might alleviate the adverse effects of scientific tentativeness on the credibility of information Kimmerle et al, 2015).…”

Investigating professed and enacted epistemic beliefs about the uncertainty of scientific knowledge when students evaluate scientific controversies

“…A promising approach for studying uncertainty beliefs in the domain of science lies in investigating how students deal with conflicting knowledge claims, or more specifically, how they evaluate scientific controversies (Bråten et al 2016;Flemming et al 2015). Even though believing in uncertain knowledge might not be advantageous under all circumstances (Sinatra et al 2014), acknowledging the uncertainty of scientific knowledge appears to be an important prerequisite for individuals to compare and evaluate multiple conflicting knowledge claims (Bråten et al 2011;Bråten and Strømsø 2010;Britt et al 2014;Schraw et al 1995).…”

The Impact of Personality Factors and Preceding User Comments on the Processing of Research Findings on Deep Brain Stimulation: A Randomized Controlled Experiment in a Simulated Online Forum

“…However, in line with our expectation, we found evidence showing that participants who believed medical knowledge to be relatively more complex (ie, had more sophisticated epistemological beliefs) perceived the tentativeness in the article’s research findings to a higher degree. Neither scientific literacy nor academic self-efficacy was related to perceived tentativeness (it should be noted here that in a previous study [ 56 ] general self-efficacy—not academic self-efficacy—was even negatively associated with perceived tentativeness).…”