Individual-based modelling of the development and transport of a Karenia mikimotoi bloom on the North-west European continental shelf

Gillibrand, Phil; Siemering, Beatrix; Miller, Peter I.; Davidson, Keith

doi:10.1016/j.hal.2015.11.011

Cited by 46 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…Such leakage can potentially transport oceanic phytoplankton into shelf waters [ 15 ]. Recent model studies also suggested that intrusion from slope current water might provide a seed population for harmful phytoplankton to the shelf [ 26 ]. In this study shelf stations had distinctly low salinities, giving no indication of cross shelf edge exchange despite strong seasonal winds.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The ESC and parallel running coastal currents are known to play an important role in the transport of phytoplankton; e.g. a potentially harmful patch of Dinophysis was observed to travel with the same speed and direction as the jet like coastal current along southwest Ireland [ 27 ], while a major bloom of the fish killing Karenia mikimotoi is thought to have been advected northwards along the west Scottish coast [ 26 , 28 ]. In this study nMDS of phytoplankton showed that northern and southern shelf stations were about 20% dissimilar, suggesting that limited connectivity between stations allowed for the formation of different communities along the latitudinal gradient.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Phytoplankton Distribution in Relation to Environmental Drivers on the North West European Shelf Sea

Siemering

Bresnan

Painter³

et al. 2016

PLoS ONE

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The edge of the North West European Shelf (NWES) is characterised by a steep continental slope and a northward flowing slope current. These topographic/hydrographic features separate oceanic water and shelf water masses hence potentially separate phytoplankton communities. The slope current may facilitate the advective transport of phytoplankton, with mixing at the shelf edge supporting nutrient supply and therefore phytoplankton production. On the west Scottish shelf in particular, little is known about the phytoplankton communities in and around the shelf break and adjacent waters. Hence, to improve our understanding of environmental drivers of phytoplankton communities, biological and environmental data were collected on seven cross-shelf transects across the Malin and Hebridean Shelves during autumn 2014. Density profiles indicated that shelf break and oceanic stations had a 100 m deep mixed surface layer while stations on the shelf were generally well mixed. Analysis of similarity and multidimensional scaling of phytoplankton counts revealed that phytoplankton communities on the shelf were significantly different to those found at the shelf break and at oceanic stations. Shelf stations were dominated by dinoflagellates, with diatoms contributing a maximum of 37% of cells. Shelf break and oceanic stations were also dinoflagellate dominated but displayed a lower species diversity. Significant difference between shelf and shelf break stations suggested that the continental slope limited cross shelf phytoplankton exchange. Northern and southern phytoplankton communities on the shelf were approximately 15% dissimilar while there was no latitudinal gradient for stations along the slope current, suggesting this current provided south to north connectivity. Fitting environmental data to phytoplankton ordination showed a significant relationship between phytoplankton community dissimilarities and nutrient concentrations and light availability on the shelf compared to shelf break and oceanic stations in the study area.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Phytoplankton Distribution in Relation to Environmental Drivers on the North West European Shelf Sea

Siemering

Bresnan

Painter³

et al. 2016

PLoS ONE

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“…This is reassuring for human safety, but not so appealing for businesses desperate for harvesting bans to be lifted, as soon as it is safe to do so. Hydrophysical models coupled with HAB population models, which also incorporate biological and geochemical processes, can improve HAB predictions, by taking into account life-history data and environmental and physiological optima for HAB species (Roelke & Buyukates 2001;McGillicuddy et al 2005;Glibert et al 2014b;Aleynik et al 2016;Gillibrand et al 2016). Modelling changes in trophic mode (autotrophy versus mixotrophy) (Lee et al 2016) and interactions with other plankters, including HAB parasites and grazers (Lenes et al 2013) can also help to improve predictions of bloom duration.…”

Section: Predictive Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing risks and mitigating impacts of harmful algal blooms on mariculture and marine fisheries

Brown

Lilley

Shutler

et al. 2019

Reviews in Aquaculture

130

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Aquaculture is the fastest growing food sector globally and protein provisioning from aquaculture now exceeds that from wild capture fisheries. There is clear potential for the further expansion of marine aquaculture (mariculture), but there are associated risks. Some naturally occurring algae can proliferate under certain environmental conditions, causing deoxygenation of seawater, or releasing toxic compounds (phycotoxins), which can harm wild and cultured finfish and shellfish, and also human consumers. The impacts of these so-called harmful algal blooms (HABs) amount to approximately 8 $billion/yr globally, due to mass mortalities in finfish, harvesting bans preventing the sale of shellfish that have accumulated unsafe levels of HAB phycotoxins and unavoided human health costs. Here, we provide a critical review and analysis of HAB impacts on mariculture (and wild capture fisheries) and recommend research to identify ways to minimise their impacts to the industry. We examine causal factors for HAB development in inshore versus offshore locations and consider how mariculture itself, in its various forms, may exacerbate or mitigate HAB risk. From a management perspective, there is considerable scope for strategic siting of offshore mariculture and holistic Environmental Approaches for Aquaculture, such as offsetting nutrient outputs from finfish farming, via the co-location of extractive shellfish and macroalgae. Such pre-emptive, ecosystem-based approaches are preferable to reactive physical, chemical or microbiological control measures aiming to remove or neutralise HABs and their phycotxins. To facilitate mariculture expansion and long-term sustainability, it is also essential to evaluate HAB risk in conjunction with climate change.

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“…Earlier efforts to map or forecast HAB occurrences examined the distribution of HABs in relation to a wide range of related and/or causal parameters, such as wind-driven water exchanges [9], temperature [10], the relative abundance of protozoans that feed on algae, e.g., Mesodinium species [11], cell distribution and oceanic currents [12], and hydrodynamic variables, e.g., current pathways, rate and volume of flow, upwelling and downwelling pulses [13]. Such parameters were subsequently used to conduct same-day mappings of bloom occurrences, to model onsets of blooms [14][15][16] and to forecast seasonal algal bloom occurrences [12]. These investigations and mapping efforts provided the basis for the development of early warning systems based on (1) solid-phase adsorption toxin tracking [17], (2) real-time field monitoring of chlorophyll and dissolved oxygen [18], and (3) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived fluorescence data to detect and monitor algal blooms [19][20][21].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping and forecasting onsets of harmful algal blooms using MODIS data over coastal waters surrounding Charlotte County, Florida

Karki¹,

Sultan²,

Elkadiri³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Over the past two decades, persistent occurrences of harmful algal blooms (HAB; Karenia brevis) have been reported in Charlotte County, southwestern Florida. We developed data-driven models that rely on spatiotemporal remote sensing and field data to identify factors controlling HAB propagation, provide a same-day distribution (nowcasting), and forecast their occurrences up to three days in advance. We constructed multivariate regression models using historical HAB occurrences (213 events reported from January 2010 to October 2017) compiled by the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission and validated the models against a subset (20%) of the reported historical events. The models were designed to specifically capture the onset of the HABs instead of those that developed days earlier and continued thereafter. A prototype of an early warning system was developed through a threefold exercise. The first step involved the automatic downloading and processing of daily Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua products using SeaDAS ocean color processing software to extract temporal and spatial variations of remote sensing-based variables over the study area. The second step involved the development of a multivariate regression model for same-day mapping of HABs and similar subsequent models for forecasting HAB occurrences one, two, and three days in advance. Eleven remote sensing variables and two non-remote sensing variables were used as inputs for the generated models. In the third and final step, model outputs (same-day and forecasted distribution of HABs) were posted automatically on a web-based GIS (http://www.esrs.wmich.edu/webmap/bloom/). Our findings include the following: (1) the variables most indicative of the timing of bloom propagation are bathymetry, euphotic depth, wind direction, SST, chlorophyll-a [OC3M] and distance from the river mouth, and (2) the model predictions were 90% successful for same-day mapping and 65%, 72% and 71% for the one-, two- and three-day advance predictions, respectively. The adopted methodologies are reliable, dependent on readily available remote sensing data sets, and cost-effective and thus could potentially be used to map and forecast algal bloom occurrences in data-scarce regions.

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Individual-based modelling of the development and transport of a Karenia mikimotoi bloom on the North-west European continental shelf

Cited by 46 publications

References 54 publications

Phytoplankton Distribution in Relation to Environmental Drivers on the North West European Shelf Sea

Phytoplankton Distribution in Relation to Environmental Drivers on the North West European Shelf Sea

Assessing risks and mitigating impacts of harmful algal blooms on mariculture and marine fisheries

Mapping and forecasting onsets of harmful algal blooms using MODIS data over coastal waters surrounding Charlotte County, Florida

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