Indices of Canada’s future climate for general and agricultural adaptation applications

Abstract

This study evaluates regional-scale projections of climate indices that are relevant to climate change impacts in Canada. We consider indices of relevance to different sectors including those that describe heat conditions for different crop types, temperature threshold exceedances relevant for human beings and ecological ecosystems such as the number of days temperatures are above certain thresholds, utility relevant indices that indicate levels of energy demand for cooling or heating, and indices that represent precipitation conditions. Results are based on an ensemble of high-resolution statistically downscaled climate change projections from 24 global climate models (GCMs) under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. The statistical downscaling approach includes a bias-correction procedure, resulting in more realistic indices than those computed from the original GCM data. We find that the level of projected changes in the indices scales well with the projected increase in the global mean temperature and is insensitive to the emission scenarios. At the global warming level about 2.1°C above pre-industrial (corresponding to the multi-model ensemble mean for 2031-2050 under the RCP8.5 scenario), there is almost complete model agreement on the sign of projected changes in temperature indices for every region in Canada. This includes projected increases in extreme high temperatures and cooling demand, growing season length, and decrease in heating demand. Models project much larger changes in temperature indices at the higher 4.5°C global warming level (corresponding to 2081-2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario). Models also project an increase in total precipitation, in the frequency and intensity Climatic Change (2018) 148:249-263 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2199-x Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2199-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Diversifying cropping systems enhances productivity, stability, and nitrogen use efficiency

“…It is expected that climate change in this semiarid region will increase mean annual temperatures, however, precipitation change is rather unclear (Li et al., ; Qian et al., ). While a further extension of the growing season is forecasted for the future (Qian et al., ), hotter and drier conditions can lead to higher frequency and intensity of drought and water stress, and may influence pest and disease incidence and severity.…”

Climate change impacts on Canadian yields of spring wheat, canola and maize for global warming levels of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, 2.5 °C and 3.0 °C

“…Canada's annual mean surface air temperature has warmed by 1.8°C over the period 1950-2016 (Vincent et al 2018), which is about twice that of the global mean temperature (0.85°C over the period 1880-2012IPCC 2014). Its warming rate is projected to continue to be faster than the global rate due to polar amplification (Li et al 2018). As high temperatures can adversely affect crop yield, it is important to understand how Canada's crop yields may change under future warming.…”

Replacing fallow with warm‐season annual crops in dryland wheat systems

“…Projected changes in climate by Li et al (2018) suggest more favorable conditions for growing warm-season annual crops in cool semiarid regions than in the past (Wienhold (Conant et al, 2018;Kloesel et al, 2018). Conservative models project an additional 1-2 ˚C increase in average temperature in the northern Great Plains by 2050 (Conant et al, 2018).…”