Indian summer monsoon variability over North-East India: Impact of ENSO and IOD

Saha, Kumarjit; Guha, Anirban; Banik, Trisanu

doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2021.105705

Cited by 10 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…It has been observed [54] that another important oceanic atmospheric parameter affecting drought is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is a climate mode that describes the fluctuations in sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean. During positive IOD events, the western Indian Ocean becomes warmer than the eastern Indian Ocean, resulting in changes in atmospheric circulation that can impact rainfall patterns in regions such as East Africa, Southeast Asia [55,56], and Australia [57].…”

Section: Climatological Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought Prediction: A Comprehensive Review of Different Drought Prediction Models and Adopted Technologies

Nandgude,

Singh,

Nandgude

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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Precipitation deficit conditions and temperature anomalies are responsible for the occurrence of various types of natural disasters that cause tremendous loss of human life and economy of the country. Out of all natural disasters, drought is one of the most recurring and complex phenomenons. Prediction of the onset of drought poses significant challenges to societies worldwide. Drought occurrences occur across the world due to a variety of hydro-meteorological causes and anomalies in sea surface temperature. This article aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the fundamental concepts and characteristics of drought, its complex nature, and the various factors that influence drought, drought indicators, and advanced drought prediction models. An extensive survey is presented in the different drought prediction models employed in the literature, ranging from statistical approaches to machine learning and deep learning models. It has been found that advanced techniques like machine learning and deep learning models outperform traditional models by improving drought prediction accuracy. This review article critically examines the advancements in technology that have facilitated improved drought prediction, identifies the key challenges and opportunities in the field of drought prediction, and identifies the key trends and topics that are likely to give new directions to the future of drought prediction research. It explores the integration of remote sensing data, meteorological observations, hydrological modeling, and climate indices for enhanced accuracy. Under the frequently changing climate conditions, this comprehensive review provides a valuable resource for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers engaged in drought prediction and management and fosters a deeper understanding of their capabilities and limitations. This article paves the way for more accurate and effective drought prediction strategies, contributing to improved resilience and sustainable development in drought-prone regions.

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Section: Climatological Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought Prediction: A Comprehensive Review of Different Drought Prediction Models and Adopted Technologies

Nandgude,

Singh,

Nandgude

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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“…Notably, the order of influence of the deeply uncertain factors on strategy failure is found to be the same across all strategies: amplitude of inflows to the donor and recipient basins, mean inflows to the donor and recipient basins, standard deviation of inflows to the donor and recipient basins and demands in the donor basin. Climate models struggle to reproduce the complex spatio‐temporal patterns of the Indian Summer Monsoon (Kodra et al., 2012; Konduru & Takahashi, 2020; Saha et al., 2021), but understanding potential future river flows is crucial to understanding potential strategy failure. Our analysis suggests an urgent need to focus on understanding the potential temporal dynamics of future hydro‐climatology of this region given its significantly important role in influencing strategy failure.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Should Diverse Stakeholder Interests Shape Evaluations of Complex Water Resources Systems Robustness When Confronting Deeply Uncertain Changes?

Sunkara,

Singh,

Gold

et al. 2023

Earth's Future

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Robustness analysis can support the design and operation of large‐scale water infrastructure projects confronting deeply uncertain futures. However, diverse actors, contextual specificities, sectoral interests, and risk attitudes make it difficult to identify an appropriate robustness metric to rank decision alternatives under deep uncertainty. Here, we clarify how methodological choices affect robustness evaluation using the multi‐actor, multi‐sector Inchampalli‐Nagarjuna Sagar water transfer megaproject in Southern India. We compare a suite of water transfer strategies discovered using evolutionary multi‐objective direct policy search (EMODPS), a strategy proposed by regional authorities and the status quo of no water transfer. We stress‐test these strategies across scenarios that capture climatic and socioeconomic uncertainties and rank them using robustness metrics representing sectoral perspectives and priorities of different actors with varying risk attitudes. Results show a considerable impact of metric choices on robustness rankings of strategies, with compromise solution discovered via EMODPS as robust. The no‐transfer strategy results in the worst water supply robustness with an average volumetric deficit of 17% of total historical demands but emerges as a robust alternative for 6 out of 12 combinations of actor‐sectors with high risk aversion. Also, changes in the amplitude of the Indian Summer Monsoon is identified as the most important uncertain factor determining the failure of strategies. Our findings highlight that the selection of robust solutions should be guided by an understanding of how assumed risk attitudes shape stakeholders' perceptions of vulnerabilities. These findings are generalizable to large infrastructure projects with diverse stakeholders and multisectoral impacts.

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“…These indicators include (1) internal dynamics such as atmospheric circulations that exhibit interannual variability, combined effects of dynamic instabilities (synoptic scale disturbances), a nonlinear interaction among various scales of motion, thermal, and orographic forcing tropical and extratropical interactions, and (2) the influence of global surface boundary conditions such as soil moisture, sea ice, snow cover, and sea surface temperature (SST), which can be assessed using various indices [6,44], i.e., El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These indicators are the primary factors influencing the interannual variation of the southwest monsoon [54][55][56]. Figure 6a…”

Section: Inter Annual Variability Of Monsoon Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Projection of Drought Risk over Indian Meteorological Subdivisions Using Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Scenarios

et al. 2023

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This study presents a comprehensive analysis of extreme events, especially drought and wet events, spanning over the past years, evaluating their trends over time. An investigation of future projections under various scenarios such as SSP-126, SS-245, and SSP-585 for the near (2023–2048), mid (2049–2074), and far future (2075–2100) using the bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparisons Project 6 (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble method was also performed. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), a simple yet incredibly sensitive tool for measuring changes in drought, is utilized in this study, providing a valuable assessment of drought conditions across multiple timescales. The historical analysis shows that there is a significant increase in drought frequency in subdivisions such as East MP, Chhattisgarh, East UP, East Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, and Rayalaseema over the past decades. Our findings from a meticulous examination of historical rainfall trends spanning from 1951 to 2022 show a noticeable decline in rainfall across various regions such as Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Marathwada, and north-eastern states, with a concurrent increase in rainfall over areas such as Gujarat, adjoining regions of West MP and East Rajasthan, and South Interior Karnataka. The future projection portrays an unpredictable pattern of extreme events, including droughts and wet events, with indications that wet frequency is set to increase under extreme SSP scenarios, particularly over time, while highlighting the susceptibility of the northwest and south peninsula regions to a higher incidence of drought events in the near future. Analyzing the causes of the increase in drought frequency is crucial to mitigate its worst impacts, and recent experiences of drought consequences can help in effective planning and decision-making, requiring appropriate mitigation strategies in the vulnerable subdivisions.

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Indian summer monsoon variability over North-East India: Impact of ENSO and IOD

Cited by 10 publications

References 57 publications

Drought Prediction: A Comprehensive Review of Different Drought Prediction Models and Adopted Technologies

Drought Prediction: A Comprehensive Review of Different Drought Prediction Models and Adopted Technologies

How Should Diverse Stakeholder Interests Shape Evaluations of Complex Water Resources Systems Robustness When Confronting Deeply Uncertain Changes?

Future Projection of Drought Risk over Indian Meteorological Subdivisions Using Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Scenarios

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