Incumbent Failure and Partisan Strength: An Explanation of the Emergence and Support of Major Third Party Presidential Candidates in the United States

Abstract

<jats:p>A strong disapproval among the electorate of both major party challengers is one common explanation for the periodic emergence of major third party presidential candidates in the United States. Simply put, if neither candidate is acceptable, then another candidate will find support among a large portion of the voters. However, this is not necessarily the case. Because modern third party candidates are political entrepreneurs, these candidates will look for fragmentation in the party coalitions and exploit them. Using data from the American National Elections Study, this article will disaggregate the data on feelings about the two major party candidates and who supports them. In doing so, it finds third party candidates tend to emerge when the incumbent president is politically weak and unpopular among both the nation as a whole and their party in particular, regardless of the standing of the other major party challenger. It also finds the idea that people turn to third party candidates after rejecting the two major party candidates is incorrect. Rather, people turn to a third party candidate only if they are disaffected with their party’s nominee. Voters who are unsatisfied with their own party’s candidate would rather look for another alternative and support a third party candidate than vote for the opposition party. This indicates partisanship among the electorate has been stronger since 1968 then previously believed.</jats:p>

Ranked-Choice Voting and the Potential for Improved Electoral Performance of Third-Party Candidates in America

“…Research finds that third-parties benefit from dissatisfaction over failures to address highly salient issues (Alvarez & Nagler, 1995; Rosenstone et al, 1996; Stone & Rapoport, 2001). More generally, research has found that voters dissatisfied with the partisan gridlock, government, nominees, and “politics as usual”, in short those with a high level of political distrust and dissatisfaction, turn to third parties to overturn the status quo (Abramson et al, 2000; Donovan et al, 2000; Gold 1995, 2005; Hetherington, 1999; Lacy & Monson, 2002; McCann et al, 1999; Owen & Dennis, 1996; Pirch, 2007; Peterson & Wrighton, 1998; Rosenstone et al, 1996; Stone & Rapoport, 2001). However, Koch (1998) and Koch (2003) finds evidence which suggests that support for third-party candidates shapes political distrust not the other way around, suggesting perhaps a more complicated relationship.…”

Third-party candidates, newspaper editorials, and political debates

“…Research has also shown that the news media only cover minor-party candidates who started their careers in one of the major parties, take unique political positions that appeal to voters of both major parties, demonstrate enough support to affect the results of the election, raise substantial amounts of money, run serious campaigns, or have strong name recognition Kirch, 2015; (Pirch, 2004; Robinson & Sheehan, 1983). Reporters also cover campaigns as horse races, using survey results to determine which candidates will be covered and which ones will be ignored (Ansolabehere & Iyengar, 1994; Craig, 2000; Patterson, 1994).…”