Increasing threat of landfalling typhoons in the western North Pacific between 1974 and 2013

Guan, Shuai; Li, Shuiqing; Hou, Yijun; Hu, Po; Liu, Ze; Feng, Junqiao

doi:10.1016/j.jag.2017.12.017

Cited by 48 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Although the detection of other than TC-induced disturbances cannot be fully excluded, the highly significant correlations between tree-ring-based disturbance reconstructions and TC activity suggest little impact of other disturbance agents (27,31) (SI Appendix, Supporting Information). Our findings are critical, as we have identified major changes at sites located at the very edge of TC impacts and facing rising TC activity in recent decades (2,22,38).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…In a recent study, Barcikowska et al (66) found a strong increase in intense TC activity since the 1940s over the western North Pacific. This extends significantly beyond the time scale covered by the majority of studies, which have documented the increases in TC activity using shorter climatologic records (38,67). As there is no clearly determined year/ period when the change in TC activity started, we selected the year 1920, which is slightly before the change documented by Barcikowska et al (66) and splits our dataset into two comparable subsets: 571 trees with the first tree ring before 1920 and 636 trees with the first tree ring after 1920.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 91%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Poleward migration of the destructive effects of tropical cyclones during the 20th century

Altman

Ukhvatkina

Omelko

et al. 2018

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Determination of long-term tropical cyclone (TC) variability is of enormous importance to society; however, changes in TC activity are poorly understood owing to discrepancies among various datasets and limited span of instrumental records. While the increasing intensity and frequency of TCs have been previously documented on a long-term scale using various proxy records, determination of their poleward migration has been based mostly on short-term instrumental data. Here we present a unique tree-ring–based approach for determination of long-term variability in TC activity via forest disturbance rates in northeast Asia (33–45°N). Our results indicate significant long-term changes in TC activity, with increased rates of disturbances in the northern latitudes over the past century. The disturbance frequency was stable over time in the southern latitudes, however. Our findings of increasing disturbance frequency in the areas formerly situated at the edge of TC activity provide evidence supporting the broad relevance of poleward migration of TCs. Our results significantly enhance our understanding of the effects of climate change on TCs and emphasize the need for determination of long-term variation of past TC activity to improve future TC projections.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 88%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 91%

Poleward migration of the destructive effects of tropical cyclones during the 20th century

Altman

Ukhvatkina

Omelko

et al. 2018

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…Typhoon Rammasun, which made landfall in July 2014, is ranked number 3 with ~ 880 million USD in 2014 (Alojado and Padua, 2015;NDRRMC, 2014). Eighty percent of the strongest typhoons making landfall in the Philippines over the last three decades developed during higher than average sea surface temperatures (SST), which supports growing evidence that TC numbers are projected to rise in the future due to an increase in global temperatures (Guan et al, 2018;Webster and Holland, 2005;Takagi and Esteban, 2016). For example, SST was found to be anomalously high and reaching 29.6 °C during the formation of Typhoon Haiyan (Takagi and Esteban, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 67%

Precipitation stable isotopic signatures of tropical cyclones in Metropolitan Manila, Philippines show significant negative isotopic excursions

Jackisch

Yeo

Switzer

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Tropical cyclones have devastating impacts on the environment, economies, and societies, and may intensify in the coming decades due to climate change. Stable water isotopes serve as tracers of the hydrological cycle, as the fractionation process may leave distinct precipitation isotopic signatures. Here we present a record of daily precipitation isotope measurements from March 2014 to October 2015 for Metropolitan Manila, which is a first of a kind dataset for the Philippines and Southeast Asia, and analyze if there is an isotopic response to tropical cyclones. The most negative shift in δ18O value (−13.84 ‰) leading to a clear isotopic signal was caused by Typhoon Rammasun, which directly hit Metropolitan Manila. The average δ18O value of precipitation associated with tropical cyclones is −10.24 ‰, whereas the mean isotopic value for rainfall associated with non-cyclone events is −5.29 ‰. Further, the closer the storm track to the sampling site, the more negative the isotopic values, indicating that in-situ isotope measurements can provide a direct linkage between isotopes and typhoon activities in the Philippines.

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“…Among different approaches commonly used for the evaluation of typhoon activity, the number of Tropical Cyclones, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index, and the Power Dissipation Index (PDI) are widely adopted as metrics (Knutson et al, 2015;Woodruff et al, 2013). In this study, following several other studies, we use the PDI (reflecting the typhoon's total dissipative power over its life) to explain the typhoon activity, which is a well-recognized parameter to characterize its destructive potential (Barcikowska et al, 2017;Emanuel, 2005;Guan et al, 2018;K. S. Liu & Chan, 2017;Villarini & Vecchi, 2013).…”

Section: Temporal Analysis Of Typhoon Activitymentioning

confidence: 98%

“…In this study, we use the landfalling PDI for temporal analysis, which is calculated at the time a typhoon made landfall or the closest six-hourly observation to the coastline (Guan et al, 2018). Later, an annual accumulated PDI (APDI) is calculated through summing the PDIs of all the typhoons in a specific year for a certain region.…”

Section: 1029/2019ef001226mentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating Typhoon Destructive Potential and Social‐Ecological Systems Toward Resilient Coastal Communities

Sajjad

et al. 2019

Earth's Future

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The resilience of coastal communities becomes a critical issue of the social-ecological system adapting to impacts from hazards on coastal well-being. This paper formulates a framework integrating typhoon destructive potential and social-ecological system from a perspective of coastal resilience. Typhoon destructive potential is interpreted using the Power Dissipation Index as a metric. We use the distributional models in geographic information systems to identify the spatial hotspots of high Power Dissipation Index along the coast of Mainland China. Furthermore, we evaluate the community resilience in all identified hotspots with place-based indicators within five potential dimensions (Social, Ecological, Institutional, Economic, and Safety). Though the results show no significant long-term trends in the typhoon destructive potential, statistically significant interdecadal variations are identified in different hotspots during 1949-2014. The resilience assessment results reveal that ecological (predisaster defense) and safety resilience (postdisaster support) are critical issues in achieving coastal community resilience. We argue that improving the ecological stewardship (having great predisaster defense) and adopting integrated approaches contribute to resilience enhancement, providing opportunities to support all the dimensions of community resilience via improving the social-economic-ecological nexus. The integration of typhoon destructive potential and social-ecological system helps to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 13 through risk-informed decision-making. The results from this study have important policy implications for local-scale planning incorporating place-based indicators.Plain Language Summary Tropical cyclones pose serious threats to human well-being globally.Governments and policymakers are particularly interested in risk reduction through effective risk-informed planning and resilience enhancement. To facilitate this, we formulate a framework integrating hazard behavior-explained by landfalling typhoon intensity-and social-ecological systems, which enables us to identify the Power Dissipation Index-based hotspots of typhoon destructive potential. These hotspots are further evaluated for the community resilience assessment to inform the decision makers. While the results show no significant overall increasing trend in typhoon destructive potential for most of the hotspot regions during the study period , interdecadal variations are found, with a significant increasing trend for some regions (90% confidence). It is important to note that the results from the resilience assessment show that many communities lack in the ecological and safety dimensions of community resilience, which is critical. We recommend an improved ecological stewardship for community resilience enhancement. Adopting the proposed framework can also attribute toward Sustainable Development Goal 13 achievement through the corrective decision-making for risk reduction related policy implications.

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Increasing threat of landfalling typhoons in the western North Pacific between 1974 and 2013

Cited by 48 publications

References 36 publications

Poleward migration of the destructive effects of tropical cyclones during the 20th century

Poleward migration of the destructive effects of tropical cyclones during the 20th century

Precipitation stable isotopic signatures of tropical cyclones in Metropolitan Manila, Philippines show significant negative isotopic excursions

Integrating Typhoon Destructive Potential and Social‐Ecological Systems Toward Resilient Coastal Communities

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