Increasing the Usability of Climate Models through the Use of Consumer-Report-Style Resources for Decision-Making

Abstract

Consumers of climate model information face difficulty in assessing which models and projections are best for their particular needs. This difficulty stems from the abundance of climate information, as well as the relative inaccessibility or unavailability of information concerning a given model’s quality, trade-offs, and suitability for a particular geographic region or decision-making application. Consumer reports have traditionally provided potential consumers with background knowledge and a review of available products and services to help to make decisions. As a knowledge broker for climate information in the Great Lakes region, the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments (GLISA) team has developed a suite of climate model consumer-report style documents to help climate information consumers make decisions when selecting models and projections for their work. To develop the reports, GLISA reviewed examples of consumer reports from other sectors, relied on the feedback and advice of our ongoing Practitioner Working Group comprised of real-world consumers, and incorporated otherwise-unavailable information from model developers. Due to close, continuing partnership with our Practitioner Working Group, the content and the formatting of our climate model consumer reports respond directly to the needs of consumers. Our reports therefore evolve based on needs of the practitioners as well as with the knowledge generated by our research in usability of climate knowledge. We pose that climate model consumer reports, especially when developed in the context of trusted user-knowledge broker relationships, contribute to making climate information more relevant to and usable by practitioners.

Projecting climate change in South America using variable‐resolution Community Earth System Model: An application to Chile

“…Given their unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution, VR‐Andes simulations can also serve as input to glaciological models enabling the examination of glacial mass loss and retreat. The various Chilean hydroclimatic changes shown in this study are summarized in Figure 16, which distil some key findings discussed throughout this study and aims to inform decision makers in need of climate change information (Briley et al ., 2020) over this region. Our findings are qualitatively consistent with previous work, however the more refined resolutions over the Andes provides additional evidence for the negative impacts of warming on society and ecosystems, especially when viewed through the lens of the loss of the Andean cryosphere and potential implications for water supply reliability.…”

Framing the Use of Climate Model Projections in Infrastructure Engineering: Practices, Uncertainties, and Recommendations

“…Based on the results from two engineering application case studies and generalizable findings from the existing literature, some observations and recommendations are offered. First, because engineers are often unfamiliar with the performances of individual GCMs for different climate variables, the use of an ensemble of GCMs with an average projected climate response is more appropriate, while guidance on individual GCM performance, such as that presented in Briley et al (2020), can be highly informative. Second, based on the results of the two applied case studies and recommendations, such as those obtained by Kilgore et al (2019), the LOCA projections seem to be a more appropriate option among commonly used statistically downscaled projection products, though a careful evaluation with historical observations is needed, especially when it comes to estimating precipitation extremes.…”

“…Cities and states have worked with local institutes and universities to obtain regional future climate projections, e.g., the precipitation assessment tool developed by DeGaetano and Castellano (2017) for New York State, the climate projections used in Boston's climate adaptation plan with joint efforts from the Boston Research Advisory Group (City of Boston 2016), and regional climate change information for Indianapolis (City of Indianapolis 2019) provided by one National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program. The RISA program for the Great Lakes region has developed so-called Consumer Reportsstyle documents, aiming to provide general criteria and strategies on using climate model projections that match specific requirements (Briley et al 2020).…”

Metrics as tools for bridging climate science and applications

“…A crucial challenge for bridging the gap between climate science and its use in applications is often termed as the “Practitioner's Dilemma” of how to synthesize the vast amount of climate information, assess its credibility, characterize associated uncertainties, and use the information appropriately for specific management needs (Barsugli et al, 2013; Briley et al, 2020; Jagannathan et al, 2020; Moss et al, 2019). Suitably derived metrics that synthesize complex numerical information can assist with this bridging, though one should recognize that the term “metric” has a variety of uses and applications.…”

“…Some metrics can quantitatively describe key climatic features, phenomena, and processes that are relevant both from a scientific and a management perspective. Other metrics allow for efficient comparison of many climate simulations and evaluation of their fitness for different purposes, which can both push scientific improvements in climate modeling, and at the same time assist practitioners in selection of the most appropriate climate information for their decision contexts (Briley et al, 2020; Jagannathan et al, 2020). Often, a single metric is not sufficient.…”