Increasing Probability of Heat-Related Mortality in a Mediterranean City Due to Urban Warming

Abstract

Extreme temperatures impose thermal stress on human health, resulting in increased hospitalizations and mortality rate. We investigated the circulatory and respiratory causes of death for the years 2007 to 2014 inclusive for the urban and rural areas of Nicosia, Cyprus under urban heatwave and non-heatwave conditions. Heatwaves were defined as four or more consecutive days with mean urban daily temperature over the 90th percentile threshold temperature of the eight investigated years. Lag period of adverse health effects was found to be up to three days following the occurrence of high temperatures. The relative risk (RR) for mortality rate under heatwave and non-heatwave conditions was found taking in consideration the lag period. The results showed the increase of mortality risk particularly for men of ages 65–69 (RR = 2.38) and women of ages 65–74 (around RR = 2.54) in the urban area, showing that women were more vulnerable to heat extremities. High temperatures were also associated with high ozone concentrations, but they did not impose an excess risk factor, as they did not reach extreme values. This analysis highlights the importance of preparing for potential heat related health impacts even in Cyprus, which is an island with frequent heatwaves.

Probability Risk of Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality to Temperature, Gender, and Age Using GAM Regression Analysis

“…The GAM model revealed significantly increased mortality on hot (no lag period) and cold days (with a lag of 3-4 days), agreeing with a similar study in Estonia [4,9]. The adverse effects of heat on health are usually more direct with increased mortality on the same day or a couple of days after a heatwave [2,10]. As proposed by Curriero et al [14], adaptation of populations to their local climate is evident by the increased health risk in relation to cold temperatures in warmer climates and on the contrary in relation to high temperature in colder climates.…”

“…The relationship between hot and cold temperatures and mortality from respiratory and cardiovascular causes is well established. Governments and scientists are concerned with the increased frequency of temperature extremes as they are associated with increased morbidity and mortality [1,2]. Exploration of time series data in different countries has revealed a different temperature threshold of their population [3], necessitating different adaptation measures for the avoidance of the climate-change impact and to increase the countries' capacity to function at a forthcoming temperature [4][5][6][7][8].…”

“…The environmental stress even within a day may be a factor of increased cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. Moreover, the effect of exposure to extreme cold or heat conditions is not limited to the specific day, but may be delayed in time [2,14,17]. The diurnal temperature range (DTR) is defined as the difference between the daily minimum and maximum temperatures, with some studies correlating a high DTR with an increase of mortality risk [17].…”

Integrating Urban Form, Function, and Energy Fluxes in a Heat Exposure Indicator in View of Intra-Urban Heat Island Assessment and Climate Change Adaptation

“…Numerous studies have been conducted in the last decades measuring the urban canopy layer UHI (UHI UCL ) (e.g., [4][5][6]) and estimating the surface UHI (SUHI) (e.g., [7][8][9]). Urban overheating is found to have a strong relation to increased energy consumption for cooling [10,11] and heat-stress related morbidity and mortality [12][13][14][15]. During heat wave events, urban heat has been proven a serious health hazard also for residents of usually cooler mid-latitude and high-latitude cities [16,17].…”

Passive survivability of buildings under changing urban climates across eight US cities

“…Documented negative health impacts of acute and prolonged exposure to heat include, but are not limited to, reduced cognitive performance (Simmons et al 2008), heat stroke, exhaustion, and syncope (Dixit et al 1997), cardiovascular and respiratory problems (Pantavou et al 2011, Pyrgou andSantamouris 2018), and reduced sleep quality (Obradovich et al 2017). Under extreme scenarios, heat can result in severe permanent damage to organ systems (Dematte et al 1998) and death (CDC 2017).…”