Increasing prevalence, time trend and seasonality of gastroschisis in São Paulo state, Brazil, 2005–2016

Abstract

To estimate the gastroschisis seasonality and trend of prevalence in recent years, stratified by maternal age and geographical clusters of São Paulo state, a population–based study was designed. We used data from the Live Births Information System (SINASC) in São Paulo state, Brazil, from 2005 to 2016. Trends of prevalence were evaluated for the specific subgroups using the Prais–Winsten regression model, and the Durbin–Watson test was used, to estimate the regression coefficient, the annual percent change (APC), and 95% confidence interval (CI). We observed 1576 cases of gastroschisis among 7,317,657 live births (LB), a prevalence of 2.154 (95% CI: 2.047–2.260) per 10,000 LB which included, 50.6% males, 67.4% Caucasians, 53.4% preterm births, and 80.9% caesarean births. The prevalence of gastroschisis significantly increased by 2.6% (95% CI: 0.0–5.2) per year, and this trend was higher in mothers aged 30–34 years (APC: 10.2, 95% CI: 1.4–19.4) than in mothers of other age groups. Between 2011 and 2016, we identified the existence of seasonality based on the date of conception in the middle months of the year (p = 0.002). This is the first and largest population–based study summarizing current epidemiology and identifying trend of prevalence of gastroschisis in São Paulo state.

Motor performance evaluation of newborns with gastroschisis after surgical correction

“…Some authors associate the increased incidence of the disease with maternal age below 20 years, smoking, use of illicit drugs during pregnancy, placental insufficiency, genetic, dietary factors, and exposure to chemicals 12 . Calderon et al demonstrated in their recent population study carried out in the state of São Paulo-Brazil between the periods from 2005 to 2016 that the annual prevalence of gastroschisis increased by 2.6% 13 .…”

Trends in case-fatality rates of COVID-19 in the World, between 2019 - 2020

“…The independent variable (X value) was days of historical series. We also used the Durbin-Watson test to measure the existence of a first-order autocorrelation of the time series of the daily coefficients, and to verify if the correlation was compatible with the random regression residuals hypothesis 11 .…”

“…To facilitate the visualization of the trends in casefatality rates, we reduced the random variation in the graph using the five-order moving average technique 11 .…”

Trends in prevalence and spatiotemporal distribution of gastroschisis in Arkansas, 1998–2015

“…The authors determined an average prevalence of 2.0 (95% CI: 1.9–2.1) gastroschisis cases per 10,000 live births across 18 Europeans registries. The prevalence of gastroschisis was reported to be increasing in Brazil (Calderon et al, 2019), Australia (Whitehall, Kandasamy, Stalewski, & Gill, 2010), New Zealand (Srivastava et al, 2009), and Mexico (Salinas‐Torres, Salinas‐Torres, Cerda‐Flores, & Martínez‐de‐Villarreal, 2018), and decreasing in China (Li et al, 2016; Xu et al, 2011) and Taiwan (Chen, Chen, Chen, Tsai, & Lee, 2019). The variations in gastroschisis rates have been also evaluated in the United States.…”

“…Reports from multiple birth defects surveillance systems have documented an increase in the prevalence of gastroschisis over the last five decades (Anderson et al, 2018; Bhatt et al, 2018; Brebner, Czuzoj‐Shulman, & Abenhaim, 2020; Calderon, Santos, Abreu, & Raimundo, 2019; Given et al, 2017; Jones et al, 2016; Kirby et al, 2013; Loane et al, 2011; MacBird et al, 2009; Werler & Parker, 2017). A recent study from 14 U.S. state surveillance programs described a 30% increase in the prevalence (per 10,000 births) of gastroschisis during the years of 2006–2012 (4.9) compared to 1995–2005 (3.6) and urged public health researchers to determine the etiology of this increase (Jones et al, 2016).…”