Increasing Potential Risk of a Global Aquatic Invader in Europe in Contrast to Other Continents under Future Climate Change

Abstract

BackgroundAnthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others.Conclusions/SignificanceOur findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop wide-ranging and effective control measures according to predicted geographical shifts and changes.

An invasion risk map for non-native aquatic macrophytes of the Iberian Peninsula

“…(2015)-. Besides, they can also be areas where species have not been detected yet due to the lack of studies in these places, or because this species may have not been able to colonize these suitable areas yet (Liu & al., 2011) as a consequence of they are still in the early stages of the invasion process. These two last points are crucial for proper management and early control of nonnative species.…”

Assessment of climatically suitable area for Syrmaticus reevesii under climate change

“…com/ articles/ suppl/ n028 p019_ supp. pdf) that are biologically meaningful and widely used in ecological niche modeling (Shafer et al 2001, Thuiller et al 2006, Liu et al 2011, Lee et al 2012. The future climatic data were downloaded at the same resolution from a Global Climate Model data portal (www.…”

“…Climate change can affect species' habitats by altering abiotic factors, which in turn affect biotic interactions and distribution patterns of species (Walther et al 2002). Under climate change, areas previously unsuitable may become suitable, while current suitable areas may become less appropriate for a species (Williams et al 2007, Liu et al 2011, Hu & Liu 2014, Markovic et al 2014. Previous studies showed that the climate changes of the 20th century have already affected the size, range, and elevation of many species' distributions, such as arctic shrubs (Sturm et al 2001), butterflies (Parmesan et al 1999, Boggs et al 2003, birds (Sun & Zhang 2000), and mammals (Hersteinsson & Macdonald 1992), with general trends of movement toward higher latitude or higher elevation.…”

“…ENMs also assume the species' ecological niche is conserved considerably over evolutionary time scales and especially over short-tomoderate time spans (Peterson et al 1999, Peterson 2011. Under these 2 assumptions, ENMs can estimate a species' potential distribution with environmental conditions similar to occurrence sites within the study area by summarizing the relationship between the occurrence sites and associated environmental variable values, and projecting the model onto different study areas or the same study areas under different climate conditions (Hu & Jiang 2011, Liu et al 2011. Biotic factors are generally not included (Soberón & Nakamura 2009); instead, climatic variables are typically the environmental data used in ENMs to model species' climatic niches (Broennimann et al 2007), which represent the species' climatic requirements, and find climatically suitable areas (CSAs) in geographic space (Lee et al 2012).…”

Biological conservation of aquatic inland habitats: these are better days

“…Issues of habitat connectivity are paramount in many fresh waters as considered below, so it is unsurprising that invasions by exotic species including the synergistic influences of factors such as eutrophication, climate change and flow modification are a major issue around the world (dunham et al, 2002;Kats and ferrer, 2003;Hussner et al, 2010;Winfield et al, 2011;Hermoso et al, 2011;liu et al, 2011). The persistent message from studies of specific threats is that the global conservation of freshwater biodiversity must operate in a complex world subjected to often competing environmental demands.…”