Increasing food production and mitigating agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union: impacts of carbon pricing and calorie production targeting

Abstract

This study focuses on the links between food production and greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union. The analysis relies on two sets of simulations of AROPAj, a supply-side model of EU agriculture: (i) a carbon price affecting agricultural GHG emissions (from 0 to 200 EUR/tCO2eq), and (ii) a lower limit on the net quantity of food calories provided by EU agriculture (200 to 450 Mt soft wheat equivalent). The model is calibrated on six annual datasets 2007-2012. The results show that a moderate increase in the price of carbon would lead to an increase in total areas and outputs of crops. Animal production decreases over the explored range of carbon price. At 200 EUR/tCO2eq, the reduction in GHG emissions ranges from 25 to 35% depending on the year of calibration. The results also show that current net calorie production from food can be more than doubled, while simultaneously reducing GHG emissions by 10-15%. The compatibility between a reduction in GHG emissions and an increase in food calorie production relies on substantial changes in animal production and feed, which implies significant variations in grassland and fallow land. These effects are contrasted between the regions of the EU.

Halving mineral nitrogen use in European agriculture: Insights from multi‐scale land‐use models

“…Table 4 summarizes our results concerning greenhouse gas emissions. In AROPAj, we account for methane and nitrous oxide following the detailed IPCC guidelines (Isbasoiu et al, 2020). Methane emissions for Europe increase in AROPAj and decrease in NLU following the respective changes in livestock numbers estimated by the models.…”

The role of carbon pricing in transforming pathways to reach net zero emissions

“…Policies targeting demand changes are needed alongside supply-side policies to reach net zero and limit global warming to 1.5°C (Creutzig et al, 2022[134]). However, current policies, including carbon pricing, mainly focus on the supply-side, and have contributed to numerous supply-chain innovations and efficiency measures (IPCC, 2018 [135]). Despite these developments, the demand for energy and GHG-intensive…”