Increasing Agricultural Resilience through Better Risk Management in Zambia

Abstract

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Climate Shocks, Vulnerability, Resilience and Livelihoods in Rural Zambia

“…Droughts and floods are therefore more likely to affect households in zones I and II. This corroborates our earlier findings in section 5.1 and earlier studies suggesting that droughts are the most common climate shock in Zambia (Braimoh et al, 2018; Table 2). While it is difficult to say whether these changes in rainfall patterns lead to poverty or not, what is clear from the data is that chronic poverty-that is, households that are poor across all the three survey rounds-concentrates in parts of the Southern, Eastern, Muchinga, and North-Western Provinces (Figure 3).…”

“…Alfani et al (2019) found that the 2015/2016 El Niño-induced drought shocks in Zambia were associated with about 20 percent and 37 percent reductions in maize yields and per capita incomes respectively. Climate shocks such as droughts and floods at the Zambian national level reduce cotton production by an estimated 68 percent, and both maize and groundnuts by 33 percent (Braimoh, et al, 2018).…”

“…Table 1 defines the remaining variables. We chose all the variables used in the regressions based on the conceptual framework in section 2, drawing from several examples in the literature (see for example Jain, 2007;Thurlow et al, 2012;Wineman and Crawford, 2017;Al Mamun et al, 2018;Braimoh et al, 2018;Alfani et al, 2019;Ngoma et al, 2019;Azzarri et al, 2020).…”

“…As in other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), both the frequency and intensity of climate and weather shocks are increasing in Zambia, pushing or locking rural households-especially smallholder farmers-into poverty (Thurlow, et al, 2012;Al Mamun, et al, 2018;Braimoh, et al, 2018;Ngoma, et al, 2019). It is estimated that climate variability reduced growth in Zambia's agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and national GDP by 4 percent and 10 percent, respectively, between 2006 and 2016 (Thurlow, et al, 2012), with an associated increase in the national poverty rate of 2 percent.…”

“…Despite a growing body of literature linking climate risk, poverty, and livelihoods more broadly in Zambia, little attention has been devoted to carefully define and measure, and assess how the vulnerability and resilience of rural households vary by household types, geography, and wealth (Jain, 2007;Thurlow, et al, 2012;Wineman and Crawford, 2017;Al Mamun, et al, 2018;Braimoh, et al, 2018;Alfani, et al, 2019;Ngoma, et al, 2019;Hamududu and Ngoma, 2019). It is equally not well understood the extent to which exposure to different climatic shocks affects vulnerability and resilience at national and subnational levels.…”