Increases in the annual range of soil water storage at northern middle and high latitudes under global warming

Wu, Wen‐Ying; Lan, C. W.; Reager, J. T.; Famiglietti, J. S.

doi:10.1002/2015gl064110

Cited by 37 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…In the northern middle and high latitudes (30–90° N), where most of the peatlands of the world reside, mean annual precipitation is predicted to increase in the coming century (IPCC, 2013). The annual range of precipitation and soil water storage are also predicted to increase, indicating that wet seasons will become wetter and dry seasons drier (Wu, Lan, Lo, Reager, & Famiglietti, 2015). The projected changes in northern precipitation, along with climate warming, raise the question of whether northern peatlands will respond to climate change by remaining as CO 2 sinks or switching to become CO 2 sources.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of northern peatlands in the global carbon cycle for the 21st century

Qiu

Zhu

Ciais

et al. 2020

Global Ecol Biogeogr

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Aim Persistent sinks of atmospheric CO2 in undisturbed peatlands are not included in future projections of the global carbon budget. We aimed to explore possible responses of northern peatlands to future climate change and to quantify the role of northern peatlands in the carbon balance of the Northern Hemisphere. Location The terrestrial Northern Hemisphere (>30° N). Time period 1861–2099. Major taxa studied Not a specific plant species, but a plant functional type is used by the model to represent an average of all vegetation growing in northern peatlands. Methods The ORCHIDEE‐PEAT v.2.0 process‐based land surface model was used to simulate area and carbon dynamics of northern peatlands. The model was driven up to the year 2099 by the global CO2 concentration from representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5 by corresponding climate projections from two general circulation models after bias correction. Results First, from 1861 to 2005 the mean annual carbon balance of northern peatlands was an atmospheric CO2 sink of 0.10 PgC/year, and this sink will roughly double in the future under both RCP2.6 and RCP6.0, whereas the total northern peatlands will be either a source of CO2 (IPSL‐CM5A‐LR) or near neutral (GFDL‐ESM2M) by the end of the century under RCP8.5. Second, the peatlands in western Canada, western and northern Europe may experience reducing areas and may shift from being CO2 sinks to sources, especially under rapid climate warming. Third, peatland enhances soil carbon accumulation in the Northern Hemisphere (lands north of 30° N). Main conclusions In this study, future changes in both northern peatland extent and peatland carbon storage are simulated. We highlight that undisturbed northern peatlands are small but persistent carbon sinks in the future; thus, it is important to protect these ecosystems.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of northern peatlands in the global carbon cycle for the 21st century

Qiu

Zhu

Ciais

et al. 2020

Global Ecol Biogeogr

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“…Therefore, although the precipitation increases over the Maritime Continent, the net water flux into the land water storage becomes less. That may induce larger annual range of total soil moisture [Wu et al, 2015], increase the risk of flooding and/or landslides, and have impacts on reducing the crop productivity [Nearing et al, 2004;Huang et al, 2006].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Increasing temperature and precipitation extremes can substantially alter the terrestrial water cycle, for example, by causing alterations in soil water storage and runoff [ Dirmeyer et al , ; Huang et al , ; Kumar et al , ; Zhang et al , ; Wu et al , ]. The global average dry conditions, and drought areas are likely to enlarge under the global warming [ Dai , ; ; Sheffield et al , ; Cook et al , ; Zhao and Dai , ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Terrestrial water flux responses to global warming in tropical rainforest areas

2016

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Precipitation extremes are expected to become more frequent in the changing global climate, which may considerably affect the terrestrial hydrological cycle. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archives have been examined to explore the changes in normalized terrestrial water fluxes (precipitation minus evapotranspiration minus total runoff, divided by the precipitation climatology) in three tropical rainforest areas: Maritime Continent, Congo, and Amazon. Results show that a higher frequency of intense precipitation events is predicted for the Maritime Continent in the future climate than in the present climate, but not for the Amazon or Congo rainforests. Nonlinear responses to extreme precipitation lead to a reduced groundwater recharge and a proportionately greater amount of direct runoff, particularly for the Maritime Continent, where both the amount and intensity of precipitation increase under global warming. We suggest that the nonlinear response is related to the existence of a higher near-surface soil moisture over the Maritime Continent than that over the Amazon and Congo rainforests. The wetter soil over the Maritime Continent also leads to an increased subsurface runoff. Thus, increased precipitation extremes and concomitantly reduced terrestrial water fluxes lead to an intensified hydrological cycle for the Maritime Continent. This has the potential to result in a strong temporal heterogeneity in soil water distribution affecting the ecosystem of the rainforest region and increasing the risk of flooding and/or landslides.

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“…Increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG) concentration is projected to increase air temperatures globally and modify the regional precipitation regimes (Hoegh-Guldberg et al, 2018). GHG-driven climate change is projected to impact watershed fluvial hydrological regimes especially in glaciated or nival catchments (Barnett et al, 2005;Bliss et al, 2014) with serious implications for flood management and water resources (Hamlet and Lettenmaier, 2007;Wu et al, 2015) The quantification of streamflow and other hydrological processes using hydrological models is becoming an active area of research in various regions of the world. However, the use of hydrological models is subject to a number of choices such as Hydrol.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future shift in winter streamflow modulated by internal variability of climate in southern Ontario

Champagne¹,

Arain²,

Leduc³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Abstract. Fluvial systems in southern Ontario are regularly affected by widespread early-spring flood events primarily caused by rain-on-snow events. Recent studies have shown an increase in winter floods in this region due to increasing winter temperature and precipitation. Streamflow simulations are associated with uncertainties tied to the internal variability of climate. These uncertainties can be assessed using hydrological models fed by downscaled Global Climate Model Large Ensemble (GCM-LE) data. The Canadian Regional Climate Model Large Ensemble (CRCM5-LE), a dynamically downscaled version of a GCM-LE, was developed to simulate climate variability over northeastern North America under different future climate scenarios. In this study, CRCM5-LE temperature and precipitation projections under RCP 8.5 scenario were used as input in the Precipitation Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) to simulate near future (2040s) streamflow for four watersheds in southern Ontario. Model simulations show that 14 % of the ensemble project a high (low) increase of streamflow volume in January-February. Streamflow increases may be driven by rain and snowmelt modulation caused by the development of high (low) pressure anomalies in North America’s East Coast. Additionally, the streamflow may be enhanced by high pressure circulation patterns directly over the Great Lakes creating warm conditions and increasing snowmelt and rainfall/snowfall ratio (16 %). These results are important to assess the internal variability of the hydrological projections and to inform society of increased winter streamflow.

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Increases in the annual range of soil water storage at northern middle and high latitudes under global warming

Cited by 37 publications

References 32 publications

The role of northern peatlands in the global carbon cycle for the 21st century

The role of northern peatlands in the global carbon cycle for the 21st century

Terrestrial water flux responses to global warming in tropical rainforest areas

Future shift in winter streamflow modulated by internal variability of climate in southern Ontario

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