Abstract:Abstract. Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) have a long-lasting effect within the stratosphere as well as impacts on the underlying troposphere. However, sub-seasonal forecasts of the winter polar stratosphere fail to use their full potential for predictability as they tend to underestimate the magnitude and persistence of these events already within the stratosphere. The origin of this underestimation is unknown. Here, we demonstrate that the state-dependent stratospheric cold bias following SSW events in s… Show more
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