Increased Sensitivity of Global Vegetation Productivity to Drought Over the Recent Three Decades

Wei, Xiaonan; He, Wei; Zhou, Yanlian; Cheng, Nuo; Xiao, Jingfeng; Bi, Wenjun; Liu, Yibo; Sun, Shilei; Ju, Weimin

doi:10.1029/2022jd037504

Cited by 21 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 82 publications

(142 reference statements)

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“…With the optimal response timescale considered, we find that the increasing vegetation–drought coupling is mainly observed in water‐surplus regions, while vegetation in water‐deficit regions is prone to show a decreasing trend of vegetation–drought coupling. These findings challenge earlier conclusions that vegetation sensitivity to droughts has increased over the past decades (Jiao, Wang, et al., 2021; Li et al., 2022; Wei et al., 2023; Zhang et al., 2022). However, these studies either ignored the variable timescales of droughts or focused solely on the plant response to precipitation and soil moisture rather than drought.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 87%

“…However, the question of whether vegetation becomes more sensitive to drought remains debated (He et al., 2018; Zeng et al., 2022). Furthermore, all these studies focusing on time evolution trends are conducted on specific or fixed drought timescales (Jiao, Wang, et al., 2021; Li et al., 2022; Wei et al., 2023; Zhang et al., 2022), ignoring the cumulative and time‐lagged effects of droughts on vegetation dynamics (Wen et al., 2019). Currently, vegetation–drought relationship studies either consider drought timescales but ignore temporal evolution trends or consider temporal evolution trends but ignore drought timescales.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although many researchers have become interested in determining how vegetation responds to drought over time, most studies show an increasing trend in vegetation sensitivity to droughts (Jiao, Wang, et al, 2021;Li et al, 2022;Wei et al, 2023;Zhang et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For future predictions, it is critical to determine whether vegetation in specific regions will become more resistant or more sensitive to droughts. Although many researchers have become interested in determining how vegetation responds to drought over time, most studies show an increasing trend in vegetation sensitivity to droughts (Jiao, Wang, et al., 2021; Li et al., 2022; Wei et al., 2023; Zhang et al., 2022). However, the question of whether vegetation becomes more sensitive to drought remains debated (He et al., 2018; Zeng et al., 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Declining coupling between vegetation and drought over the past three decades

Li,

An,

Zhong

et al. 2024

Global Change Biology

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Droughts have been implicated as the main driver behind recent vegetation die‐off and are projected to drive greater mortality under future climate change. Understanding the coupling relationship between vegetation and drought has been of great global interest. Currently, the coupling relationship between vegetation and drought is mainly evaluated by correlation coefficients or regression slopes. However, the optimal drought timescale of vegetation response to drought, as a key indicator reflecting vegetation sensitivity to drought, has largely been ignored. Here, we apply the optimal drought timescale identification method to examine the change in coupling between vegetation and drought over the past three decades (1982–2015) with long‐term satellite‐derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index data. We find substantial increasing response of vegetation to drought timescales globally, and the correlation coefficient between vegetation and drought under optimal drought timescale overall declines between 1982 and 2015. This decrease in vegetation–drought coupling is mainly observed in regions with water deficit, although its initial correlation is relatively high. However, vegetation in water‐surplus regions, with low coupling in earlier stages, is prone to show an increasing trend. The observed changes may be driven by the increasing trend of atmospheric CO2. Our findings highlight more pressing drought risk in water‐surplus regions than in water‐deficit regions, which advances our understanding of the long‐term vegetation–drought relationship and provides essential insights for mapping future vegetation sensitivity to drought under changing climate conditions.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 87%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Declining coupling between vegetation and drought over the past three decades

Li,

An,

Zhong

et al. 2024

Global Change Biology

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“…Drought is one of the key factors that weakens vegetation productivity [61], which leads to a reduction in the GPP of vegetation to different degrees, especially for barren land. A declining trend in annual GPP was also observed in cropland and shrubland.…”

Section: Variation In Gpp Valuementioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivities of Vegetation Gross Primary Production to Precipitation Frequency in the Northern Hemisphere from 1982 to 2015

Xue,

2023

Remote Sensing

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Vegetation of the Northern Hemisphere plays a vital role in global ecosystems and the carbon cycle. Variations in precipitation profoundly affect vegetation productivity, plant growth, and species communities. Precipitation frequency directly controls soil moisture availability, which has an impact on the vegetation carbon sink. However, it is unclear how precipitation frequency affects the vegetation productivity of different land cover types in different seasons. In this study, the sensitivities of the gross primary production (GPP) of six vegetation types (forest, cropland, grassland, shrubland, tundra and barren land) in response to the frequency of five categories of precipitation (trace: 0.1–5 mm/day, small: 5–10 mm/day, moderate: 10–15 mm/day, heavy: 15–20 mm/day, and very heavy: >20 mm/day) were analyzed based on the XGBoost model. The results showed that, between 1982 and 2015, precipitation frequency declined in most land cover types but increased significantly in the pan-Arctic. Differences in the sensitivity to precipitation frequency were observed between seasons and precipitation categories in northern latitudes. The GPP values of forest and barren land vegetation were less sensitive to precipitation frequency than grassland, shrubland and tundra. This may be related to different vegetation community structures and underlying surfaces and gradually increasing drought resistance capability. The sensitivity to precipitation frequency declined for moderate and heavy precipitation in cropland, but it increased in winter. As the frequency of trace precipitation diminishes in winter, the sensitivity of each vegetation type reduces by an average of 0.03%/decade. Conversely, the sensitivities to small and moderate rain increase by 0.01%/decade and 0.02%/decade, respectively, for ecosystems such as cultivated land, forests, and shrubs. However, shrubs and tundra exhibit distinct behaviors, where shifts in precipitation frequency align directly with trends in sensitivity. These results show that the frequency of precipitation significantly affects vegetation productivity and has different sensitivities, and vegetation shows different feedback mechanisms in the face of environmental changes.

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