Increased energy use for adaptation significantly impacts mitigation pathways

Colelli, Francesco; Emmerling, Johannes; Marangoni, Giacomo; Mistry, Malcolm; Cian, Enrica De

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-32471-1

Cited by 20 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…Our estimates are by design conservative since they exclude non-CO 2 GHGs and other potential adaptation interventions such as inland flood protection (27) and water transfer infrastructure (28). More comprehensive estimates of energy demand from adaptation more generally across the economy will likely revise our estimates upwards (29). Further, other infrastructure required for decarbonization not considered in this study, such as new and modified electricity transmission networks, hydrogen production and storage facilities, and battery energy storage, will likely add considerable energy demands and embedded emissions (30)(31)(32).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mitigation and Adaptation Emissions Embedded in the Broader Climate Transition

Lesk¹,

Csala²,

Krekeler³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Climate change necessitates an immediate and sustained global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while adapting to the increased climate risks caused by historical emissions. This broader climate transition will involve mass global interventions including renewable energy deployment, coastal protection and retreat, and enhanced space cooling, which will result in CO2 emissions from energy and materials use. Yet, the magnitude of these emissions remains largely unconstrained, leaving open the potential for under-accounting of emissions and conflicts or synergies between mitigation and adaptation goals. Here, we use a suite of models to estimate the CO2 emissions embedded in the broader climate transition. For a pathway limiting warming to 2&#176;C, we estimate that selected adaptations will emit ~1.5GtCO2 through 2100. Emissions from energy used to deploy renewable capacity are much larger at ~95GtCO2, equivalent to over two years of current global emissions and ~8% of the remaining carbon budget for 2&#176;C. These embedded transition emissions are reduced by 80% to 20GtCO2 under a rapid decarbonization scenario limiting warming to 1.5&#176;C. However, they roughly double to 185GtCO2 under a low-ambition transition consistent with current policies (2.7&#176;C warming by 2100), mainly because a slower transition relies more on fossil fuels. Under this status-quo, the emissions embedded in the transition total nearly half the remaining carbon budget for 1.5&#176;C. Our results provide the first holistic assessment of the carbon emissions embedded in the transition itself, and suggest that these emissions can be largely minimized through rapid energy decarbonization, an underappreciated benefit of enhanced climate ambition. &#160;

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mitigation and Adaptation Emissions Embedded in the Broader Climate Transition

Lesk¹,

Csala²,

Krekeler³

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Our estimates are by design conservative since they exclude non-CO 2 GHGs and other potential adaptation interventions such as inland flood protection ( 27 ) and water transfer infrastructure ( 28 ). More comprehensive estimates of energy demand from adaptation more generally across the economy will likely revise our estimates upwards ( 29 ). Further, other infrastructure required for decarbonization not considered in this study, such as new and modified electricity transmission networks, hydrogen production and storage facilities, and battery energy storage, will likely add considerable energy demands and embedded emissions ( 30 – 32 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mitigation and adaptation emissions embedded in the broader climate transition

Lesk

Csala

Hasse

et al. 2022

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Climate change necessitates a global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while adapting to increased climate risks. This broader climate transition will involve large-scale global interventions including renewable energy deployment, coastal protection and retreat, and enhanced space cooling, all of which will result in CO 2 emissions from energy and materials use. Yet, the magnitude of the emissions embedded in these interventions remains unconstrained, opening the potential for underaccounting of emissions and conflicts or synergies between mitigation and adaptation goals. Here, we use a suite of models to estimate the CO 2 emissions embedded in the broader climate transition. For a gradual decarbonization pathway limiting warming to 2 °C, selected adaptation-related interventions will emit ∼1.3 GtCO 2 through 2100, while emissions from energy used to deploy renewable capacity are much larger at ∼95 GtCO 2 . Together, these emissions are equivalent to over 2 y of current global emissions and 8.3% of the remaining carbon budget for 2 °C. Total embedded transition emissions are reduced by ∼80% to 21.2 GtCO 2 under a rapid pathway limiting warming to 1.5 °C. However, they roughly double to 185 GtCO 2 under a delayed pathway consistent with current policies (2.7 °C warming by 2100), mainly because a slower transition relies more on fossil fuel energy. Our results provide a holistic assessment of carbon emissions from the transition itself and suggest that these emissions can be minimized through more ambitious energy decarbonization. We argue that the emissions from mitigation, but likely much less so from adaptation, are of sufficient magnitude to merit greater consideration in climate science and policy.

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“…Throughout domestic and international research, studies on low‐carbon production technologies have focused on three main areas. First, through low‐carbon technological advances, the structure of energy use and energy use efficiency among manufacturing production processes are changed to achieve carbon dioxide emission reduction (Colelli et al, 2022). To identify and evaluate measures to improve carbon efficiency in the manufacturing process, energy management systems can provide a framework for managing carbon emission information and improving carbon efficiency (J. Li & Sarkis, 2021).…”

Section: Product Low‐carbon Technology For Life Cyclementioning

confidence: 99%

Product low‐carbon design, manufacturing, logistics, and recycling: An overview

Yuan

Qian

et al. 2023

WIREs Energy & Environment

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Due to the worsening world climate crisis, reducing carbon emissions throughout product operations has become an issue that the manufacturing industry must face. In order to gain competitive advantage, this paper aims to explore low carbon design techniques for product life cycle: including low carbon design, low carbon manufacturing, low carbon logistics and low carbon recycling, as they are highly relevant to reducing carbon emissions. This paper proposes a portfolio structure for low carbon operations, consisting of a target layer, a strategy layer, and a support layer, aimed at improving energy efficiency and reducing carbon emissions. To emphasize the maximization of economic, environmental, and social advantages, the objective layer establishes a system of goals for low‐carbon product design. The strategy layer proposes four low‐carbon product design technologies: low‐carbon product design, manufacturing, transportation, and recycling. The support layer emphasizes the importance of operational systems and support platforms for low‐carbon products, such as low‐carbon design systems, energy information collection systems, energy optimization support systems, carbon emission monitoring and control systems, and low‐carbon management systems. However, successful implementation of low carbon manufacturing is challenging due to the complexity of low carbon manufacturing and the uniqueness of each company. Therefore, this paper suggests applying a life‐cycle‐oriented low‐carbon operation model to various manufacturing enterprises and exploring models that reflect actual manufacturing practices to achieve the goal of low‐carbon manufacturing.This article is categorized under: Sustainable Development > Goals

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Increased energy use for adaptation significantly impacts mitigation pathways

Cited by 20 publications

References 65 publications

Mitigation and Adaptation Emissions Embedded in the Broader Climate Transition

Mitigation and Adaptation Emissions Embedded in the Broader Climate Transition

Mitigation and adaptation emissions embedded in the broader climate transition

Product low‐carbon design, manufacturing, logistics, and recycling: An overview

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