Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming

Timmermann, Axel; Oberhuber, Josef M.; Bacher, Andreas; Esch, Monika; Latif, Mojib; Roeckner, Erich

doi:10.1038/19505

Cited by 1,122 publications

(789 citation statements)

References 15 publications

(18 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

753

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Climate-driven fluctuations in resource availability would also explain intrapopulation variation in RIs, through different foraging conditions encountered by different individual turtles (Hays 2000). If recent climate-modeling predictions of increased frequency and intensity of El Niño events due to global warming prove accurate (Timmerman et al 1999), EP leatherbacks could encounter continued and exacerbated resource limitation on their foraging grounds. Based on these results, we conclude that variability in foraging ground conditions in the EP related to ENSO can have considerable impacts on leatherback energy acquisition, remigration interval length and reproductive success, and thus population dynamics.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While fisheries impose the more severe threat to the survival of EP leatherbacks, the compounding effects of ENSO should be taken into account in creating conservation strategies to save leatherbacks from extinction. Because the frequency and intensity of ENSO events in the EP might increase over the next few decades (Timmerman et al 1999), management strategies for fisheries should be more conservative than they are at present, and should allow little, if any, mortality of leatherbacks if there is to be any reasonable hope for recovery of this species in the Pacific.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Energy budget calculations indicate resource limitation in Eastern Pacific leatherback turtles

Wallace

Kilham²,

Paladino³

et al. 2006

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Resource availability constrains energy allocations to competing functions such as growth and reproduction, and thus influences animal life-histories and population dynamics. Leatherback turtles Dermochelys coriacea are critically endangered and exhibit physiological and life-history traits unique among marine reptiles. In addition, leatherback nesting populations in the North Atlantic (NA) are, on average, larger, produce more eggs, exhibit shorter remigration intervals (RIs, time between nesting seasons), and generally demonstrate more stable population trends than Eastern Pacific (EP) nesting leatherback populations. In order to compare energy requirements of inter-basin leatherback populations, we estimated costs associated with reproduction to calculate the energy budgets of leatherback populations from the EP and the NA. Our estimations illustrate that in contrast to reported trends in RIs of these populations (EP = 3.7 yr; NA = 2 yr), NA leatherbacks should require RIs between 1.5 to 4 times longer than their EP counterparts to accumulate sufficient energy to return to their nesting beaches for an entire reproductive season. These results indicate that resource limitation might lengthen RIs for EP leatherbacks compared to NA leatherbacks, thus decreasing the EP population's reproductive success and increasing its exposure to risk of fisheriesrelated mortality. We hypothesize that stochastic resource availability related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is exacerbating the effects of high incidental fisheries mortality, resulting in plummeting EP leatherback populations. Therefore, management strategies for fisheries should allow little, if any, mortality of Pacific leatherbacks if there is to be any reasonable hope for recovery of this population.

show abstract

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy budget calculations indicate resource limitation in Eastern Pacific leatherback turtles

Wallace

Kilham²,

Paladino³

et al. 2006

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Although trends in hurricanes and tropical cyclones cannot be attributed to current climate change, there is a strong inter-decadal mode in North Atlantic hurricane variability showing greater activity along the East Coast and peninsular florida between 1941and 1965and the 1990s (Landsea et al 1996, and this condition of higher activity may last for decades (Bengtsson 2001;Goldenberg et al 2001). Timmermann et al (1999) suggest that future sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are likely to resemble present-day EI Nino conditions and, because fewer hurricanes occur in the Atlantic during EI Nino years (Pielke and Landsea 1999), Atlantic hurricane frequency could decrease in the future. During recent severe EI Nino events (1982)(1983)(1997)(1998), eastern Pacific winter storms tracked farther south than in previous years causing extensive wave and storm damage, coastal erosion, and flooding in California (Griggs and Brown 1998).…”

Section: Coastal Stormsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems

et al. 2002

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO •. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO. levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed

show abstract

“…Although no attempt has been made to evaluate potential effects in coastal populations of the HCS, a strong effect seems feasible (Southward et al, 1995). Moreover, the hypothesized increase in the frequency of ENSO under a scenario of ongoing global warming (Timmermann et al, 1999) may significantly affect current distribution and abundance patterns of coastal species in the HCS.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recurrent, thermally-induced shifts in species distribution range in the Humboldt current upwelling system

Carstensen¹,

Riascos²,

Heilmayer³

et al. 2010

Marine Environmental Research

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

a b s t r a c tEl Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate variablility, which fundamentally influences environmental patterns of the Humboldt Current System (HCS) off Chile and Peru. The surf clams Donax obesulus and Mesodesma donacium are dominant and highly productive bivalves of exposed sandy beaches of the HCS. Existing knowledge indicates that El Niño (EN, warm phase of ENSO) and La Niña (LN, cold phase of ENSO) affect populations of both species in a different way, although understanding of the mechanisms underlying these effects is still lacking. The aim of this study was to test hypotheses attempting to explain field observations on the effect of strong EN or LN events by using controlled experimental conditions. Growth and mortality rates of both species were registered during a four-week experiment under EN temperature conditions, normal temperature conditions and LN temperature conditions. While D. obesulus exhibited reduced growth and higher mortality under LN conditions, M. donacium showed reduced growth and higher mortality under EN conditions. The results clearly indicate different temperature tolerance windows for each species, possibly reflecting the evolutionary origins of the Donacidae and Mesodesmatidae in regions with contrasting temperature regimes. These results provide experimental support for previous hypotheses suggesting that thermal tolerance is the driving factor behind observed changes in the species distributions of D. obesulus and M. donacium during the extreme phases of ENSO.

show abstract

Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming

Cited by 1,122 publications

References 15 publications

Energy budget calculations indicate resource limitation in Eastern Pacific leatherback turtles

Energy budget calculations indicate resource limitation in Eastern Pacific leatherback turtles

Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems

Recurrent, thermally-induced shifts in species distribution range in the Humboldt current upwelling system

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About