Increase Risk of Drought in the Semiarid Lands of Northeast Brazil Due to Regional Warming above 4 °C

Marengo, José A.; Cunha, Ana Paula; Soares, Wagner R.; Torres, Roger Rodrigues; Alves, Lincoln M.; Brito, Sheila S. de Barros; Cuartas, Luz Adriana; Leal, Karinne Reis Deusdará; Neto, Germano Ribeiro; Alvalá, Regina Célia dos Santos; Magalhães, Albino Verçosa de

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-92881-4_7

Cited by 31 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…There is a small variation in the thermal amplitude in the TTC area as a semiarid environment, with an annual average of 27.6 °C. Regarding the precipitation, the average yearly value is equal to 1349 mm, with two well-defined seasons: the rainy from December to May; and the dry from June to November [63,64].…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Interannual variation in rainfall is also related to sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Atlantic and the position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) [65,66]. These variations impact the average temperatures directly in the region, and Marengo et al [63] also reported that droughts are recurrent. Our study area is defined by the urban districts designated by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE-acronym in Portuguese) in 2010 [62], plus a buffer of 1 km, which includes all the current urban land of these cities.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Linking Urban Sprawl and Surface Urban Heat Island in the Teresina–Timon Conurbation Area in Brazil

Carneiro

Lopes

Espíndola

2021

Land

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Negative consequences of urban growing disparities usually lead to impressive levels of segregation, marginalization, and injustices, particularly in the context of climate change. Understanding the relations between urban expansion and social vulnerability has become extremely necessary for municipality management and sustainable urban development. Although the study of urbanization in Latin America (LA) has been well discussed, little attention has been given to how the population is affected by urban expansion-oriented movement after the 2008 economic crisis. Massive investments in infrastructure displaced the population to peripheral zones without adequate urban planning, which reflected in alteration in land use and land cover (LULC), followed by environmental impacts and public health issues caused by thermal discomfort, notably in semiarid regions. This paper aims to evaluate the effects of urban sprawl on the Teresina–Timon conurbation (TTC) area’s local population, located in Brazil’s northeast. Descriptive metrics (Moran’s I statistic and social vulnerability index) and orbital products derived from remote sensing—LULC and Land surface temperature (LST) maps—were applied. The results indicated that the housing program ‘My House My Life’ (PMCMV) had increased the values of land consumption per capita since 2009 significantly, showing a clear expanding trend. The gradual replacement of green areas by residential settlements resulted in an increased LST. The PMCMV program contributed substantially to a change in land use and land cover, which increased the extent of urbanized areas and changed the local microclimate.

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Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Linking Urban Sprawl and Surface Urban Heat Island in the Teresina–Timon Conurbation Area in Brazil

Carneiro

Lopes

Espíndola

2021

Land

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“…These conditions are probably a consequence of both poor management and reduced political will in facing the recurrent droughts of the region, rather than a consequence of the climate hazard itself. However, the current scenario can be greatly exacerbated by the ongoing climate change, given that changes in annual-mean air temperature are projected higher for the Brazilian Northeast than globally, demonstrating that local impacts can be much stronger [ 97 ]. Sectors already weakened, such as food and water security, as well as small-scale agriculture, can be strongly impacted by warming above 4 °C due to increased temperatures and reduced precipitation, increasing the vulnerability of smallholder livelihoods in municipalities supported by subsistence agriculture [ 97 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing Spatial Patterns of Health Vulnerability to Drought in the Brazilian Semiarid Region

Menezes

Madureira

Santos

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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Health determinants might play an important role in shaping the impacts related to long-term disasters such as droughts. Understanding their distribution in populated dry regions may help to map vulnerabilities and set coping strategies for current and future threats to human health. The aim of the study was to identify the most vulnerable municipalities of the Brazilian semiarid region when it comes to the relationship between drought, health, and their determinants using a multidimensional index. From a place-based framework, epidemiological, socio-economic, rural, and health infrastructure data were obtained for 1135 municipalities in the Brazilian semiarid region. An exploratory factor analysis was used to reduce 32 variables to four independent factors and compute a Health Vulnerability Index. The health vulnerability was modulated by social determinants, rural characteristics, and access to water in this semiarid region. There was a clear distinction between municipalities with the highest human welfare and economic development and those municipalities with the worst living conditions and health status. Spatial patterns showed a cluster of the most vulnerable municipalities in the western, eastern, and northeastern portions of the semiarid region. The spatial visualization of the associated vulnerabilities supports decision making on health promotion policies that should focus on reducing social inequality. In addition, policymakers are presented with a simple tool to identify populations or areas with the worst socioeconomic and health conditions, which can facilitate the targeting of actions and resources on a more equitable basis. Further, the results contribute to the understanding of social determinants that may be related to medium- and long-term health outcomes in the region.

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“…Notwithstanding the adaptive capacity of many species, it is observed that climate change impacts on the ocean biota, and warming, sea level rise, and acidification lead to the loss of biogenic reefs, mangroves, algae and seagrass beds (OPPENHEIMER et al, 2014;CRAMER et al, 2015;MAGALHÃES et al, 2020). Likewise, failing to intervene on human behavior feed a vicious cycle that compromises the ocean's ability to contribute to climate regulation (HORTA et al, 2018), as well as interactions and interdependencies of continental ecosystems (LEYBA et al, 2019;MARENGO et al, 2019).…”

Section: Potential Distribution Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and Brazil’s coastal zone: socio-environmental vulnerabilities and action strategies

Horta

Pinho

Gouvêa

et al. 2020

SustDeb

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The coastal zone, where most of the Brazilian population lives, plays a central role for discussing vulnerability and adaptation strategies to climate change. Besides saltmarshes, mangroves and coral reefs, this region also presents seagrass beds, macroalgae and rhodolith beds, forming underwater forests, which are key habitats for services such as biodiversity conservation, O2 production, and absorption of part of the CO2 from the atmosphere. Science endorses that ocean warming and acidification, sea level rise, biological invasions and their interactions with pollution, overfishing, and other stressors undermine the structure and functioning of these ecosystems, thus increasing the region's socio-environmental vulnerability. Ecosystem conservation, management and potential bioremediation/restoration using science-based solutions must be prioritized in order to reduce the vulnerability of coastal communities and the ocean.

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Increase Risk of Drought in the Semiarid Lands of Northeast Brazil Due to Regional Warming above 4 °C

Cited by 31 publications

References 39 publications

Linking Urban Sprawl and Surface Urban Heat Island in the Teresina–Timon Conurbation Area in Brazil

Linking Urban Sprawl and Surface Urban Heat Island in the Teresina–Timon Conurbation Area in Brazil

Analyzing Spatial Patterns of Health Vulnerability to Drought in the Brazilian Semiarid Region

Climate change and Brazil’s coastal zone: socio-environmental vulnerabilities and action strategies

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