Increase in the number of extremely strong fronts over Europe? A study based on ERA‐Interim reanalysis (1979–2014)

Schemm, Sebastian; Sprenger, Michael; Martius, Olivia; Wernli, Heini; Zimmer, Matthias

doi:10.1002/2016gl071451

Cited by 33 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…Going forward, we plan to extend this 2008–2014 climatology into the future. A recent study by Schemm et al [] has indicated that extremely active fronts are becoming more frequent over Europe, especially since the year 2000, so this work will become crucial in our understanding of the UK wind regime in a changing climate. After first lengthening our climatology, we also plan to conduct seasonal analysis on each of the individual ETC features responsible for the most damaging UK gusts.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Subsynoptic‐scale features associated with extreme surface gusts in UK extratropical cyclone events

Earl

Dorling

Starks

et al. 2017

Geophysical Research Letters

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Numerous studies have addressed the mesoscale features within extratropical cyclones (ETCs) that are responsible for the most destructive winds, though few have utilized surface observation data, and most are based on case studies. By using a 39‐station UK surface observation network, coupled with in‐depth analysis of the causes of extreme gusts during the period 2008–2014, we show that larger‐scale features (warm and cold conveyer belts) are most commonly associated with the top 1% of UK gusts but smaller‐scale features generate the most extreme winds. The cold conveyor belt is far more destructive when joining the momentum of the ETC, rather than earlier in its trajectory, ahead of the approaching warm front. Sting jets and convective lines account for two thirds of severe surface gusts in the UK.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Subsynoptic‐scale features associated with extreme surface gusts in UK extratropical cyclone events

Earl

Dorling

Starks

et al. 2017

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Atmospheric dynamics and microphysics are supposed to be important for the observed redistribution between two types of precipitation over NE. In particular, atmospheric fronts frequency changes (Berry et al 2011a), together with changes in the number of extremely strong fronts (Schemm et al 2017), may influence the balance between convective and stratiform precipitation. The increase in the frequency of strong fronts in summer (Schemm et al 2017) (when cold fronts are prevailing (Berry et al 2011b)) may result in an increased role of convective precipitation.…”

Section: Precipitation Typementioning

confidence: 99%

Observed changes in convective and stratiform precipitation in Northern Eurasia over the last five decades

Chernokulsky

Kozlov

Zolina

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Long-term changes in convective and stratiform precipitation in Northern Eurasia (NE) over the last five decades are estimated. Different types of precipitation are separated according to their genesis using routine meteorological observations of precipitation, weather conditions, and morphological cloud types for the period 1966-2016. From an initial 538 stations, the main analysis is performed for 326 stations that have no gaps and meet criteria regarding the artificial discontinuity absence in the data. A moderate increase in total precipitation over the analyzed period is accompanied by a relatively strong growth of convective precipitation and a concurrent decrease in stratiform precipitation. Convective and stratiform precipitation totals, precipitation intensity and heavy precipitation sums depict major changes in summer, while the relative contribution of the two precipitation types to the total precipitation (including the contribution of heavy rain events) show the strongest trends in transition seasons. The contribution of heavy convective showers to the total precipitation increases with the statistically significant trend of 1%-2% per decade in vast NE regions, reaching 5% per decade at a number of stations. The largest increase is found over the southern Far East region, mostly because of positive changes in convective precipitation intensity with a linear trend of more than 1 mm/day/ decade, implying a 13.8% increase per 1°C warming. In general, stratiform precipitation decreases over the majority of NE regions in all seasons except for winter. This decrease happens at slower rates in comparison to the convective precipitation changes. The overall changes in the character of precipitation over the majority of NE regions are characterized by a redistribution of precipitation types toward more heavy showers.

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“…Extratropical cyclones feature weather fronts, strong surface pressure variations, and rapidly ascending airstreams (Catto, 2016). They can produce strong surface winds (Ulbrich et al, 2001), heavy precipitation (Pfahl et al, 2014), and intense convection (Schemm et al, 2017). Quasi-stationary anticyclones, which are also known as atmospheric blocks (see section 5), can lead to prolonged dry and cold conditions in winter (Buehler et al, 2011) and dry and hot conditions in summer (Black et al, 2004).…”

Section: Days: Weather Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Census of Atmospheric Variability From Seconds to Decades

Williams

Alexander

Barnes

et al. 2017

Geophysical Research Letters

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This paper synthesizes and summarizes atmospheric variability on time scales from seconds to decades through a phenomenological census. We focus mainly on unforced variability in the troposphere, stratosphere, and mesosphere. In addition to atmosphere-only modes, our scope also includes coupled modes, in which the atmosphere interacts with the other components of the Earth system, such as the ocean, hydrosphere, and cryosphere. The topics covered include turbulence on time scales of seconds and minutes, gravity waves on time scales of hours, weather systems on time scales of days, atmospheric blocking on time scales of weeks, the Madden-Julian Oscillation on time scales of months, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on time scales of years, and the North Atlantic, Arctic, Antarctic, Pacific Decadal, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillations on time scales of decades. The paper serves as an introduction to a special collection of Geophysical Research Letters on atmospheric variability. We hope that both this paper and the collection will serve as a useful resource for the atmospheric science community and will act as inspiration for setting future research directions. the atmosphere interacts with the other components of the Earth system, such as the ocean, hydrosphere, and cryosphere. Given these interactions, and the importance of the atmosphere for weather and climate, our intended audience is the entire Geophysical Research Letters readership. Our aim is to provide an authoritative, concise, and accessible point of reference for the most important modes of atmospheric variability. This Commentary serves as an introductory foreword to a virtual special collection of Geophysical Research Letters on atmospheric variability. To initiate the collection, we have identified some of the most influential and definitive papers to have been published in this journal in recent years. Our hope and expectation is that this will be a living collection, which will grow over time whenever seminal new papers are published. The contents of the Commentary are ordered in terms of increasing time scale, from seconds and minutes (section 2), to hours (section 3), days (section 4), weeks (section 5), months (section 6), years (section 7), and decades (section 8). We note at the outset, however, that the time scales of many atmospheric phenomena are not unambiguously defined. For example, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (section 6) is monitored and WILLIAMS ET AL.

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Increase in the number of extremely strong fronts over Europe? A study based on ERA‐Interim reanalysis (1979–2014)

Cited by 33 publications

References 56 publications

Subsynoptic‐scale features associated with extreme surface gusts in UK extratropical cyclone events

Subsynoptic‐scale features associated with extreme surface gusts in UK extratropical cyclone events

Observed changes in convective and stratiform precipitation in Northern Eurasia over the last five decades

A Census of Atmospheric Variability From Seconds to Decades

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