Incorporating social context and co-evolution in an innovation diffusion model—with an application to cleaner vehicles

Abstract

Existing diffusion models have proven less suitable for the analysis of environmental innovations, such as hybrid vehicles, which emerge in a context of changing social appraisal and regulatory support. In this paper, we offer an agent-based analysis of innovation diffusion which is better suitable for those cases. We explore future scenarios of car engine technology with support of a simulation model. In the model, actor behavior is modeled explicitly on the basis of actor frames and the consequent appraisal of technology options by potential adopters and by suppliers. The model is analytically novel in that it incorporates five feedback loops: interactive learning between suppliers and users, scale and learning economies, endogenous taste formation among consumers, and social learning (attribution of meaning). In the model, consumer decisions influence each other and the supply of innovation by shaping R&D and investment decisions of suppliers. The model is applied to explore future diffusion scenarios of clean vehicles, though it starts with simulating recent historic trends, including the quick diffusion of direct fuel injection systems and slow diffusion of electric vehicles in the last 20 years. It is shown that the success of hybrid electric vehicles critically depends on suppliers shifting towards HEV development and production (resulting in greater supply of HEV models) and on consumers valuing hybrid electric vehicles more than environmentally improved diesel vehicles.

Why early adopters engage in interpersonal diffusion of technological innovations: An empirical study on electric bicycles and electric scooters

“…Social norms impact e-bike use, but only indirectly via personal norms (Wolf and Seebauer, 2014). Comparable to injunctive norms, Dijk et al (2011) simulate a socially constructed meaning of hybrid cars, which makes these vehicles more or less desirable to prospective buyers. Similar to descriptive norms, in Eppstein et al (2011) conformity between agents influences purchases of plug-in hybrid vehicles.…”

“…Once a certain share of consumers uses the product, market uptake significantly accelerates. This diffusion process has been applied for electric vehicles in agent-based modeling approaches, simulating how innovations travel between interconnected consumers (Dijk et al, 2011;Eppstein et al, 2011;Zhang et al, 2011). E-car drivers report engaging in social discourse, when their close social network reacts with curiosity and interest to their new car or when strangers approach them unsolicited in the street (Burgess et al, 2013).…”

Improving the behavioral realism of global integrated assessment models: An application to consumers’ vehicle choices

“…The objectives 36 of this paper are: (i) to review relevant empirical literature on the behavioral characteristics of 37 energy end-use; (ii) to assess the ways in which IAMs currently endogenize or reproduce key 38 features of human behavior; and (iii) to develop and test a novel IAM formulation for representing 39 heterogeneous consumer groups with varying preferences. Throughout, the focus is on light-duty 40 vehicles and consumers' purchase decisions. 41…”

Diversity in technology competition: The link between platforms and sociotechnical transitions

“…These effects imbue established platforms with inertia and often continuous improvements strengthen further their market share [123]. In the case of the automobile industry, such developments are evident in the improvement of internal combustion engines running on diesel or gasoline, and the slow diffusion of a variety of electricity-powered vehicles [124]. Finally, the availability of supporting infrastructure is another source of increasing returns to scale both on the supply and demand sides.…”