Incorporating reservoir impacts into flood frequency distribution functions

Gao, Shanjun; Liu, Pan; Pan, Zhengke; Ming, Bo; Guo, Shenglian; Cheng, Lei; Wang, Jinxing

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.10.061

Cited by 34 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…This is especially proposed by England et al (2018) in Hydrology Subcommittee Bulletin 17C as an imminent need to "define flood potentials for watersheds altered by urbanization, wildfires, deforestation, and by reservoirs". Our results highlight the importance of state-of-art process-based approaches (e.g., Wright et al, 2014;Yu et al, 2018) and statistical modeling approaches (Salas et al, 2018;Serago and Vogel, 2018;Gao et al, 2019;Dong et al, 2019;Barth et al, 2019) for flood frequency analyses across China, especially for northern…”

Section: Association Of Flood Peaks With Tropical Cyclonesmentioning

confidence: 75%

On the Flood Peak Distributions over China

Yang¹,

Wang²,

Li³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Abstract. Time series of annual maximum instantaneous peak discharge from 1120 stations with record lengths of at least 50 years are used to examine flood peak distributions across China. Abrupt change rather than slowly varying trend is the dominant mode of the violation of stationary assumption for annual flood peaks over China. The dominance of decreasing trends in annual flood peak series indicates a weakening tendency of flood hazard over China in recent decades. Delayed (advanced) occurrence of annual flood peaks in southern (northern) China point to a tendency for seasonal clustering of floods across the entire country. We model the upper tails of flood peaks based on the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions for the stationary series, and evaluate the scale-dependent properties of flood peaks. The relations of GEV parameters and drainage area show spatial contrasts between northern and southern China. Weak dependence of the GEV shape parameter on drainage area highlights the critical role of space-time rainfall organizations in dictating the upper tails of flood peaks. Landfalling tropical cyclones play an important role in characterizing the upper-tail properties of flood peak distributions especially in northern China and southeastern coast, while the upper tails of flood peaks are dominated by extreme monsoon rainfall in southern China. Severe flood hazards associated with landfalling tropical cyclones are characterized with tropical cyclones experiencing extratropical transition, and persistent moisture transport/interactions with regional topography as demonstrated by Typhoon Nina (1975).

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Section: Association Of Flood Peaks With Tropical Cyclonesmentioning

confidence: 75%

On the Flood Peak Distributions over China

Yang¹,

Wang²,

Li³

et al. 2019

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Innovative approaches that explicitly address the nonstationarities should be embraced for flood frequency analysis across China. These include process-based approaches that rely on physically based hydrological modeling which can represent the processes of nonstationarities in flood series (see e.g., Wright et al, 2014;Yu et al, 2019) and statistical-modeling approaches that mathematically parametrize the role of human regulations in flood series based on the framework of probability theory (Salas et al, 2018;Serago and Vogel, 2018;Gao et al, 2019;Dong et al, 2019;Barth et al, 2019). These approaches should be especially used in areas of northern China that exhibit an overwhelming portion of stations with nonstationarities in flood series.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the flood peak distributions over China

Yang¹,

Wang²,

Li³

et al. 2019

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Here we for the first time present a nationwide characterization of flood hazards across China. Our analysis is based on an exceptional dataset of 1120 stream gauging stations with continuous records of annual flood peaks for at least 50 years across the entire country. Our results are organized by centering on various aspects of flood peak distributions, including temporal changes in flood series and their spatial variations, the statistical distribution of extreme values, and the properties of storms that lead to annual flood peaks. These aspects altogether contribute to an improved understanding of flood hydrology under a changing environment over China and promote advances in flood science at the global scale. Historical changes in annual flood peaks demonstrate frequent abrupt changes rather than slowly varying trends. The dominance of decreasing annual flood peak magnitudes indicates a weakening tendency of flood hazards over China in recent decades. We model the upper tails of flood peaks based on the generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. The GEV shape parameter is weakly dependent on drainage area, but it shows spatial splits tied to rainfall climatology between northern and southern China. Landfalling tropical cyclones play an important role in characterizing the upper-tail properties of flood peak distributions especially in northern China and southeastern coast, while the upper tails of flood peaks are dominated by extreme monsoon rainfall in southern China. Severe flood hazards associated with landfalling tropical cyclones are characterized by complex interactions of storm circulations with synoptic environments (i.e., mid-latitude baroclinic disturbances) and regional topography.

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“…A coupled hydrologic-hydrodynamic model as presented here could bring many benefits for integrated water resources management. Firstly, it could be used to estimate flood frequency curves and probable maximum floods in scenarios with and without floodplains and reservoirs, which is fundamental to the understanding of flood risk changes (Ayalew et al 2013;Felder et al 2017;Tanaka et al 2017;Gao et al 2019;Su and Chen 2019). It also enables the evaluation of basin-scale effects of multiple reservoirs, e.g., for the assessment of coordinated operation of a cascade of reservoirs at both local and regional scales (e.g., Seibert et al (2014)), together with flood attenuation by floodplains both upstream and downstream from the dams.…”

Section: Discussion: Toward Large-scale Coupling Of Hydrodynamics Hymentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the role of reservoirs versus floodplains on large-scale river hydrodynamics

et al. 2019

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Large-scale hydrologic-hydrodynamic models are powerful tools for integrated water resources evaluation at the basin scale, especially in the context of flood hazard assessment. However, recent model developments have paid little attention to simulate reservoirs' hydrodynamics within river networks. This study presents an adaptation of the MGB model to simulate reservoirs as an internal boundary condition, enabling the explicit simulation of hydrodynamic processes along reservoirs and their interaction with upstream and downstream floodplains in large basins. A case study is carried out in the Itajaí-Açu River Basin in Brazil, which has periodic flood-related disasters and three flood control dams. The model was calibrated for the 1950-2016 period forced with daily observed precipitation. The adjustment was satisfactory, with Nash-Sutcliffe metrics between 0.54 and 0.84 for the 11 gauges analyzed and with flood frequency curves also well represented. Simulation scenarios with and without floodplains and reservoirs were performed to evaluate the relative role of these factors on flood control basin-wide through evaluation of simulated discharges, water levels and flood extent. Itajaí do Oeste tributary and Itajaí-Açu mainstem present major floodplain attenuation, while in Itajaí do Sul and Itajaí do Norte tributaries the main flood control occurs due to reservoir attenuation. Downstream from the dams, results indicated that the reservoirs reach their maximum discharge reduction capacity for 5-to 10-year floods, decreasing it for larger floods. The developed model may be very useful for operational uses as flood forecasting and coordinated reservoir operation studies, as well as to enhance the comprehension of flood dynamics at basin scale.

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Incorporating reservoir impacts into flood frequency distribution functions

Cited by 34 publications

References 53 publications

On the Flood Peak Distributions over China

On the Flood Peak Distributions over China

On the flood peak distributions over China

Modeling the role of reservoirs versus floodplains on large-scale river hydrodynamics

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