Incorporating non-stationarity from climate change into rainfall frequency and intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves

Schlef, K.; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Brown, Casey; Demissie, Yonas; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Wagner, A. M.; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Karl, Thomas R.; Easterling, David R.; Wang, Kimberly J.; François, Baptiste; Yan, Eugene

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128757

Cited by 29 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 197 publications

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“…As mentioned in Section 1, the IDF design approach necessitates not only a storm magnitude but also a predetermined hyetograph, with the shape of the hyetograph differing depending on the underlying mechanism, such as the standard rainfall hyetograph versus the snowmelt hyetograph illustrated in Figure 8. Numerous studies (Cheng & AghaKouchak, 2014; Hou et al., 2019; Ragno et al., 2018; Schlef et al., 2023) have examined the potential changes in IDF curves resulting from global warming. However, climate change will cause different regions to experience varying shifts in their dominant flood‐generating mechanisms, with higher mountains potentially experiencing more ROS events.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Snowmelt Temporal Pattern in Flood Estimation for a Small Snow‐Dominated Basin in the Sierra Nevada

Yan,

Sun,

Wigmosta

et al. 2023

Water Resources Research

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Prior research confirmed the substantial bias from using precipitation‐based intensity‐duration‐frequency curves (PREC‐IDF) in design flood estimates and proposed next‐generation IDF curves (NG‐IDF) that represent both rainfall and snow processes in runoff generation. This study improves the NG‐IDF technology for a snow‐dominated test basin in the Sierra Nevada. A well‐validated physics‐based hydrologic model, the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), is used to continuously simulate snowmelt and streamflow that are used as benchmark data sets to systematically assess the NG‐IDF technology. We find that, for the studied small snow‐dominated basin, the use of standard rainfall hyetographs in the NG‐IDF technology leads to substantial underestimation of design floods. Thus, we propose probabilistic hyetographs that can represent unique patterns of events with different underlying mechanisms. For the test basin where flooding events are generated entirely by snowmelt, we develop a hyetograph that characterizes snowmelt temporal patterns, which greatly improves the performance of NG‐IDF technology in design flood estimates. In contrast to the standard rainfall hyetographs characterized by a symmetrically peaked, bell‐shaped curve, the snowmelt hyetograph displays a more rapid rise (i.e., greater intensity) and a distinct diurnal pattern influenced by solar energy input. The results also show that the uncertainty of hyetography plays an important role in design flood estimation and can have important implications for future flood projections.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Snowmelt Temporal Pattern in Flood Estimation for a Small Snow‐Dominated Basin in the Sierra Nevada

Yan,

Sun,

Wigmosta

et al. 2023

Water Resources Research

Self Cite

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“…Finally, a few studies have considered an analogous problem, non-stationary aspects of extreme heavy precipitation. A variety of approaches have been developed in recent years and have been reviewed by Salas et al (2018), Martel et al (2021), Wasko et al (2021), Yan et al (2021), andSchlef et al (2023). The articles by Yan et al (2021) and Schlef et al (2023) identify several different types of strategies.…”

Section: Statistical Methods To Account For Nonstationarity In Drough...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A variety of approaches have been developed in recent years and have been reviewed by Salas et al (2018), Martel et al (2021), Wasko et al (2021), Yan et al (2021), andSchlef et al (2023). The articles by Yan et al (2021) and Schlef et al (2023) identify several different types of strategies. One strategy is to perform a traditional stationary analysis using the full period of record, but with frequent updates.…”

Section: Statistical Methods To Account For Nonstationarity In Drough...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought Assessment in a Changing Climate: A Review of Climate Normals for Drought Indices

Lisonbee,

Nielsen-Gammon,

Trewin

et al. 2024

JoASC

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Should drought be considered an extreme dry period based on the entire record of available data? Or, should drought be considered a low in precipitation variability within the context of a present, contemporary climate? The two most common reference periods are the full period of record (all observed data or as much as possible) and a 30-year reference climatology. However, climate non-stationarity may render the "all-data" ap-proach an inaccurate or obsolete comparison unless a trend is factored in. The aim of this review is to explore the literature for approaches to addressing these issues. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has recommended a 30-year reference period for most climatological applications since 1935, but for drought assessments and drought indices the modus operandi has been to use as much data as possible. However, in the literature, the “all data” approach has been challenged by evident impacts from climate change-induced non-stationarity. Over the past several years, as potential errors in drought assessments became more apparent due to a stationarity assumption when applying drought indices, several studies have adopted shorter reference periods, with 30-years being the most common. Furthermore, several recent papers have recommended using short reference periods with more frequent data updates for drought assessments to be representative of a contemporary climate. Additionally, at least 18 non-stationary drought indices have been proposed in efforts to retain long datasets and account for non-stationarity in the climate system.

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“…In addition, it is believed that the impact of warming will be greater than 7% for shorter (i.e., less than one day) rainfall events compared to longer durations. More in-depth information on this topic can be found in the articles listed at the end of this publication (Martel et al 2021;Roderick et al 2020;Schlef et al 2023;Zhang et al 2017;Kourtis and Tsihrintzis 2022).…”

Section: Scaling Existing Idf Curves Based On Projected Increase In W...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Such scaling and correction processes can be computationally intensive, especially when done with regional climate models. More in-depth information on using global climate models to scale IDF curves can be found in the articles listed at the end of this publication (Zhang et al 2017;Her et al 2018;Her et al 2020;Martel et al 2021;Schlef et al 2023).…”

Section: Scaling Existing Idf Curves Using Projected Rainfall From Gl...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Accounting for Climate Change in Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Curves for Stormwater Management

Martinez,

Her,

Bean

2024

EDIS

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This publication is meant to describe three major approaches to account for climate change in rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves and the pros and cons of each approach. This document aims to provide information to practicing engineers, Extension agents, and others interested in how projected changes in rainfall patterns can be considered for water resources management. Written by Christopher J. Martinez, Young Gu Her, and Eban Bean, and published by the UF/IFAS Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, January 2024.

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Incorporating non-stationarity from climate change into rainfall frequency and intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves

Cited by 29 publications

References 197 publications

The Role of Snowmelt Temporal Pattern in Flood Estimation for a Small Snow‐Dominated Basin in the Sierra Nevada

The Role of Snowmelt Temporal Pattern in Flood Estimation for a Small Snow‐Dominated Basin in the Sierra Nevada

Drought Assessment in a Changing Climate: A Review of Climate Normals for Drought Indices

Accounting for Climate Change in Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Curves for Stormwater Management

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