Incorporating forecast uncertainties into EENS for wind turbine studies

Toh, G. K.; Gooi, Hoay Beng

doi:10.1016/j.epsr.2010.10.008

Cited by 13 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Finally, various uncertainty research is focused on other macro-aspects of wind energy. For example, a variety of researchers take in account the entire wind power system in electricity markets [50][51][52][53]. Among them, Karki and Billinton investigate the costeffective wind energy utilization for reliable power supply, and propose a simulation technique to determine the appropriate wind power penetration in an existing power system from both the reliability and economic aspects [50], while Usaola develops a method for probabilistic load flow in electricity networks with uncertain wind generation [51].…”

Section: Uncertainty Research Related To Wind Energy and Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Other researchers, such as Toh et al, integrate wind power forecast errors into the expected energy not served formulation, and study the effects of wind energy penetration on system reliability, total cost for energy and reserve procurement for a traditional power system [53]. Other than the entire wind power system, some research also takes into account the transmission network.…”

Section: Uncertainty Research Related To Wind Energy and Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Wind farm layout optimization under uncertainty with landowners' financial and noise concerns

Chen

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Section: Uncertainty Research Related To Wind Energy and Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Uncertainty Research Related To Wind Energy and Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wind farm layout optimization under uncertainty with landowners' financial and noise concerns

Chen

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“…Finally, various uncertainty research focuses on other macro-aspects of wind energy. For example, a variety of researchers take into account the entire wind power system in electricity markets [22][23][24][25]. Among them, Karki and Billinton investigate the cost-effective wind energy utilization for reliable power supply, and propose a simulation technique to determine the appropriate wind power penetration in an existing power system from both the reliability and economic aspects [22], while Usaola develops a method for probabilistic load flow in electricity networks with uncertain wind generation [23].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Other researchers, such as Toh et al, integrate wind power forecast errors into the expected energy not served formulation, and study the effects of wind energy penetration on system reliability, total cost for energy and reserve procurement for a traditional power system [25]. Other than the entire wind power system, some research also takes into account the transmission network.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Wind Farm Layout Sensitivity Analysis and Probabilistic Model of Landowner Decisions

Chen¹,

MacDonald

2017

Journal of Energy Resources Technology

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This paper offers tools and insights regarding wind farm layout to developers in determining the conditions under which it makes sense to invest resources into more accurately predicting of the cost-of-energy (COE), a metric to assess farm viability. Using wind farm layout uncertainty analysis research, we first test a farm design optimization model's sensitivity to surface roughness, economies-of-scale costing, and wind shear. Next, we offer a method for determining the role of land acquisition in predicting uncertainty. This parameter—the willingness of landowners to accept lease compensation offered to them by a developer—models a landowner's participation decision as a probabilistic interval utility function. The optimization-under-uncertainty formulation uses probability theory to model the uncertain parameters, Latin hypercube sampling to propagate the uncertainty throughout the system, and compromise programming to search for the nondominated solution that best satisfies the two objectives: minimize the mean value and standard deviation of COE. The results show that uncertain parameters of economies-of-scale cost-reduction and wind shear have large influence over results in the sensitivity analysis, while surface roughness does not. The results also demonstrate that modeling landowners' participation in the project as uncertain allows the optimization to identify land that may be risky or costly to secure, but worth the investment. In an uncertain environment, developers can predict the viability of the project with an estimated COE and give landowners an idea of where turbines are likely to be placed on their land.

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“…The challenges for wind power producers are related to two kinds of uncertainty: wind power and electricity market prices. The uncertain behavior of wind power [8], [9], and the large variability of electricity market prices, means a large variability in profit [10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal Offering Strategies for Wind Power Producers Considering Uncertainty and Risk

Catalào

Pousinho

Mendes

2012

IEEE Systems Journal

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Abstract-This paper deals with the development of offering strategies for a wind power producer considering a stochastic model. Several scenarios are analyzed and two kinds of uncertainty are simultaneously handled: wind power and electricity market prices. The proposed approach allows evaluating production and offering strategies to be submitted to the electricity market with the goal of maximizing profits. An application to realistic case study is presented and conclusions are duly drawn.

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Incorporating forecast uncertainties into EENS for wind turbine studies

Cited by 13 publications

References 24 publications

Wind farm layout optimization under uncertainty with landowners' financial and noise concerns

Wind farm layout optimization under uncertainty with landowners' financial and noise concerns

Wind Farm Layout Sensitivity Analysis and Probabilistic Model of Landowner Decisions

Optimal Offering Strategies for Wind Power Producers Considering Uncertainty and Risk

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