Incorporating climate change scenarios and water-balance approach to cumulative assessment models of solution potash Mining in the Canadian Prairies

Clark, R. A.; Andreichuk, I.; Sauchyn, David J.; McMartin, Dena W.

doi:10.1007/s10584-017-2099-5

Cited by 4 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 7 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…For example, while evaluating the impact of climate change on the Smith Creek Research Basin, it was noted that climate change has brought gradual increases in rainfall, an earlier snowmelt by 2 weeks, and a 50% increase in the multiple -day rainfall events [20]. In a different study [21], it was indicated that impact of climate change will likely cause a 26% difference in the availability of water resources including significant shifts in the intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation events over the Qu'Appelle watershed that lies within the Canadian prairie region. Other studies such as those by [22][23][24][25] suggested an earlier snowmelt due to increasing temperature which may then affect an earlier spring peak runoff and drier late summer.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impacts on Reservoir Inflow in the Prairie Pothole Region: A Watershed Model Analysis

Muhammad

Evenson

Unduche

et al. 2020

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is known for its hydrologically complex landscape with a large number of pothole wetlands. However, most watershed-scale hydrologic models that are applied in this region are incapable of representing the dynamic nature of contributing area and fill-spill processes affected by pothole wetlands. The inability to simulate these processes represents a critical limitation for operators and flood forecasters and may hinder the management of large reservoirs. We used a modified version of the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model capable of simulating the dynamics of variable contributing areas and fill-spill processes to assess the impact of climate change on upstream inflows into the Shellmouth reservoir (also called Lake of the Prairie), which is an important reservoir built to provide multiple purposes, including flood and drought mitigation. We calibrated our modified SWAT model at a daily time step using SUFI-2 algorithm within SWAT-CUP for the period 1991–2000 and validated for 2005–2014, which gave acceptable performance statistics for both the calibration (KGE = 0.70, PBIAS = −13.5) and validation (KGE = 0.70, PBIAS = 21.5) periods. We then forced the calibrated model with future climate projections using representative concentration pathways (RCPs; 4.5, 8.5) for the near (2011–2040) and middle futures (2041–2070) of multiple regional climate models (RCMs). Our modeling results suggest that climate change will lead to a two-fold increase in winter streamflow, a slight increase in summer flow, and decrease spring peak flows into the Shellmouth reservoir. Investigating the impact of climate change on the operation of the Shellmouth reservoir is critically important because climate change could present significant challenges to the operation and management of the reservoir.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impacts on Reservoir Inflow in the Prairie Pothole Region: A Watershed Model Analysis

Muhammad

Evenson

Unduche

et al. 2020

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In an average year, about 1.5%, or 117 million m 3 , of Lake Diefenbaker's volume is brought into the Qu'Appelle River. In a drought year this number can be as high as 7%, or 195 million m 3 (Andreichuk , 8). Buffalo Pound Lake, a small lake (maximum capacity 90 million m 3 ) serving Regina and Moose Jaw, also depends mainly on water diverted from Lake Diefenbaker, not local runoff (Andreichuk ).…”

Section: Findings and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The province has the world's largest reserves of potash and development dates back to the 1950s. Since 2008, five new solution mines and one conventional potash mine have been approved (Andreichuk ), most of which are in the Qu'Appelle watershed (Figure ). In addition, seven mine expansions and two potential future projects are projected to join the mines in the populated Qu'Appelle Valley (Andreichuk ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since 2008, five new solution mines and one conventional potash mine have been approved (Andreichuk ), most of which are in the Qu'Appelle watershed (Figure ). In addition, seven mine expansions and two potential future projects are projected to join the mines in the populated Qu'Appelle Valley (Andreichuk ). The Legacy (K+S) mine, opened in 2017, is the first major new potash mine in 40 years in Saskatchewan (CBC News ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Legacy (K+S) mine, opened in 2017, is the first major new potash mine in 40 years in Saskatchewan (CBC News ). Combined with the Belle Plaine, Kronau (Valé), Southey (Yancoal), and Muskowekwan mines, all would use an estimated total of 112 million m 3 of water per year, sourced from Buffalo Pound Lake in the Qu'Appelle River watershed (Andreichuk ). Most of the Qu'Appelle River's flow comes from the South Saskatchewan River, which is dammed and stored in the major reservoirs of Lake Diefenbaker and Buffalo Pound Lake.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

The politics of water security in southern Saskatchewan

Olive

2019

Canadian Geographies / Géographies canadiennes

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Key Messages• Rapid and largely unmonitored expansion of non-renewable resource production in Saskatchewan is undermining water security. • Concerns about oil and potash development are virtually non-existent among water and environmental experts. • Policy that compromises water security is being driven by low-issue salience, economic interests, ideology, and political culture.This paper examines long-term water and resource management in Saskatchewan. Agriculture has long sustained Saskatchewan's economy, but the province experienced a resource boom in oil and potash in the 2008-2015 time period. What potential water-related risks are posed by oil and potash? And is the province able to balance the short-term economic gains of these developments with the long-term goal of water security?The research is based on interviews with policy elites in the province of Saskatchewan and argues that four factors explain why the government continues to favour industry over water security: low-issue salience, economic and political interest, ideology, and political culture. Les politiques sur la sécurité hydrique dans le sud de la SaskatchewanCette étude se penche sur la situation de l'eau et la gestion durable des ressources en Saskatchewan. L'agriculture a longtemps soutenu l'économie de la Saskatchewan, mais la province a connu une période de croissance liée à l'exploitation des ressources en pétrole et en potasse entre 2008-2015. Quels sont les risques potentiels liés à l'eau découlant de l'exploitation de ces ressources? Est-ce que la province est capable d'harmoniser les gains économiques à court terme provenant des industries extractives avec l'objectif à long terme de la sécurité hydrique? Cette recherche est fondée sur des entrevues avec des gestionnaires de politiques publiques. Nous faisons valoir que quatre facteurs expliquent le fait que le gouvernement provincial continue de favoriser l'industrie au détriment de la sécurité hydrique. Voici ces facteurs : le peu d'importance de cette question dans la sphère publique, les intérêts économique et politique en jeu, l'idéologie et la culture politiques ambiantes.

show abstract

Climate Change Perceptions and Associated Characteristics in Canadian Prairie Agricultural Producers

Stewart,

Arbuthnott,

Sauchyn

2023

Challenges

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change (CC) poses a threat to agricultural sustainability, which is important in the Canadian Prairies, as agriculture is a major occupation and driver of the economy. Agriculture involves both the creation and mitigation of emissions related to CC. To implement adaptation and mitigation practices, producers should accept CC as fact. This study is based in Saskatchewan, Canada, where CC denial is prevalent in public comments. To assess the validity of this anecdotal impression, this study provided a snapshot of Saskatchewan agricultural producers’ perceptions and observations of CC and assessed whether views on CC are associated with characteristics of political orientation and affiliation, mental flexibility, systems thinking, time orientation, climate knowledge, climate observations, and demographic variables. A survey was developed with the following four sections: (1) individual characteristics; (2) observed changes in climate-related variables; (3) knowledge and perceptions about CC; and (4) demographic variables. The survey included multiple-choice questions and items scored on a Likert scale. The survey was completed by 330 Saskatchewan agricultural producers (i.e., farmers and ranchers). The results indicated more CC denial in Saskatchewan producers than in other Canadian samples. Individual and socioeconomic characteristics of lower levels of formal education, identifying as male, conservative political affiliation and ideation, low trust in science, and low mental flexibility were associated with less acceptance and concern of CC. It is therefore necessary to consider socioeconomic and individual characteristics of producers in measures aiming to increase the acceptance of the reality of CC. Future intervention research should target male producers with lower levels of formal education, low trust in science, low mental flexibility, and right-leaning political ideation for the improvement of CC perceptions and examine different teaching methods (e.g., lectures, workshops, webinars) and dissemination methods (e.g., online versus in-person sessions) to see how various techniques may influence learning, as well as the way the information is used by particular groups.

show abstract

Incorporating climate change scenarios and water-balance approach to cumulative assessment models of solution potash Mining in the Canadian Prairies

Cited by 4 publications

References 7 publications

Climate Change Impacts on Reservoir Inflow in the Prairie Pothole Region: A Watershed Model Analysis

Climate Change Impacts on Reservoir Inflow in the Prairie Pothole Region: A Watershed Model Analysis

The politics of water security in southern Saskatchewan

Climate Change Perceptions and Associated Characteristics in Canadian Prairie Agricultural Producers

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About