Income's effect on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide: 1960–2015

Dargay, Joyce; Gately, Dermot

doi:10.1016/s0965-8564(98)00026-3

Cited by 242 publications

(160 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…Using only cross-country variation to predict the future pattern of traffic fatalities is equivalent to saying that once Indonesia reaches the income level of Greece, its road safety record will mirror that of Greece. It is widely recognized that the motorization rate rises with income (Ingram and Liu (1999), Dargay and Gately (1999), Button et al (1993)), implying that one should find large differences in vehicles per capita across countries at different stages of development and within countries as per capita incomes grow. Table 2.4 presents data on motorization rates for various countries in 1999.…”

Section: The Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesismentioning

confidence: 99%

Traffic fatalities and economic growth

Kopits

Cropper

2005

Accident Analysis & Prevention

383

100

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This dissertation adds to the current understanding of the socioeconomic determinants of traffic fatality rates by examining the variation in road deaths across countries and over time. Chapter two investigates the relationship between road safety and economic development within an Environmental Kuznets Curve framework. Reduced-form models of fatality risk as a function of per capita income are estimated using panel data for over 80 countries. The results confirm an inverted U-shaped relationship with income, with traffic fatality risk (fatalities per population) beginning to decline at incomes similar to those found for several environmental externalities. The turning point is driven by the rate of decline in fatalities per vehicle as income rises, since motorization rates (vehicles per population), while increasing with income at a decreasing rate, never decline with economic growth. This suggests that road safety improvements accompanying income growth depend on policies that reduce fatalities per vehicle rather than on reducing motorization.Projections suggest that the global road death toll will grow by 66% between 2000 and 2020 if historic trends continue. This number, however, reflects divergent rates of change in different parts of the world.Chapter three focuses on factors underlying the decline in fatalities per distance traveled, i.e., the downward sloping part of the road safety Kuznets curve.Formal models of traffic fatalities are developed for vehicle occupants and pedestrians. Reduced-form approximations to these models are estimated using panel data for over 30 high-income countries over 1964-2002. Estimates suggest that demographic changes and road building contributed to declines in both vehicle occupant and non-occupant fatality rates. In addition, increases in the size of the vehicle fleet, as predicted by theory, have increased occupant deaths while decreasing pedestrian deaths per distance driven.Improvements in medical care also played a role in reducing both fatality rates. The results do not offer evidence of a significant increase in demand for risky driving in response to newer, safer vehicles or seatbelt usage. The extent to which alcohol and increases in the elderly population have detrimental effects on fatality rates is found to be twice as large for pedestrians as for vehicle occupants.

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Section: The Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesismentioning

confidence: 99%

Traffic fatalities and economic growth

Kopits

Cropper

2005

Accident Analysis & Prevention

383

100

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“…The increase in average income related with an increase in cars is not a surprising result, especially with the high accessibility to cars due to the proximity to the border. Ensenada presents similarities to Mexico City (Guerra, 2015) and OECD countries (Dargay, Gately, 1999). Even when the statements of Clear Institute (2012), Moctezuma Navarro (2012) and Medina Ramirez (2012) are in the same path, they are made on a different scale, namely at the national level, and are too general and imprecise when using GDP or minimum wage.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Dargay and Gately (1999) found a strong connection between income and car ownership levels. Button et al (1993) stated that in the developing countries, as the economy gets stronger and the citizens receive better incomes, they present a car use growth similar to industrialized countries; Moctezuma Navarro (2012) examined the effects of income but using the minimum wage.…”

Section: Car Ownership In Mexicomentioning

confidence: 92%

Longitudinal correlations of car ownership with socio-economics, urban form, and transport infrastructure in Latin America: Example from Ensenada, Mexico

Roque

Masoumi

2017

Bulletin of Geography. Socio-Economic Series

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Abstract. Car-orientated modal splits represent problems for the city in economic, environmental and social terms. The implementation of policies and other measures can fail if the causes are not well recognized. Mid-sized cities in Mexico are not well-represented in studies where only the capital and other bigger cities are studied. This research aims to recognize those causes focusing on northern midsized cities in Mexico. The approach involves numerical work (linear regression) complemented with a descriptive analysis of the city. The analysis takes on such areas of consideration as socio-economic factors, land-use variables and the street network of the city. Of the 16 variables, almost all presented a relationship with car ownership levels, but not all behaved as expected. The final part of the research is a reaction to the previous studies and recommendations to change the city from car-orientated to one with a sustainable modal split.

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“…households and the ownership of cars are the usual factors that are mentioned in the studies of the transport mode choice [10]. These two factors are connected, and higher incomes allow also for easier use and maintenance of cars, including more frequent use [12,13]. Apart from these factors, this group also includes factors such as physical condition of the individual, gender, age and composition of the household [14].…”

Section: Theoretical Basis Of Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%