Income-based inequality in post-disaster migration is lower in high resilience areas: evidence from U.S. internal migration

Abstract

Residential relocation following environmental disasters is an increasingly necessary climate change adaptation measure. However, relocation is among the costliest individual-level adaptation measures, meaning that it may be cost prohibitive for disadvantaged groups. As climate change continues to worsen, it is important to better understand how existing socioeconomic inequalities affect climate migration and how they may be offset. In this study we use network regression models to look at how internal migration patterns in the United States vary by disaster-related property damage, household income, and local-level disaster resilience. Our results show that post-disaster migration patterns vary considerably by the income level of sending and receiving counties, which suggests that income-based inequality impacts both individuals' access to relocation and the ability of disaster-afflicted areas to rebuild. We further find evidence that income-based inequality in post-disaster outmigration is attenuated in areas with higher disaster resilience, not due to increased relocation out of poorer areas but instead because there is decreased relocation from richer ones. This finding suggests that, as climate adaptation measures, relocation and resilience-building are substitutes, with the implication that resilience incentivizes in situ adaptation, which can be a long term drain on individual wellbeing and climate adaptation resources.

Cap. 31. Adaptación. En: La Quinta Evaluación Nacional del Clima

“…La adaptación al cambio climático depende de complejos contextos geográficos, políticos, económicos, sociales y culturales (Capítulos 18, 20; Figura 31.2). La capacidad de las personas y las instituciones para adaptarse depende de su acceso a los recursos, que está desigualmente distribuido y depende de factores como el ingreso, la raza, la etnia y el sexo 72,75,76,77,78 . Factores como el estado de ciudadanía y la propiedad de la tierra pueden crear obstáculos administrativos 79,80 .…”

Cap. 18: Interacciones sectoriales, factores de estrés múltiples y sistemas complejos. En: La Quinta Evaluación Nacional del Clima.

“…Los complejos sistemas descritos en KM 18.1 pueden crear impactos climáticos en cascada y agravados que afectan especialmente a personas y comunidades con poca flexibilidad para absorber estrés adicional. Esto incluye comunidades más pequeñas y rurales, hogares con menores ingresos, minorías raciales, personas con problemas de salud y discapacidades, embarazadas, cuidadores, niños pequeños y adultos mayores (KM 4.2, 15.2, 16.2) 18,65,66,67,68,69,70,71 . La combinación de factores sociales complejos (Figura 18.1) con los múltiples roles e identidades de las personas da forma a sus experiencias vividas de perturbaciones y factores de estrés múltiples (Figura 18.2) 72,73,74 .…”