Incidence trend and age-period-cohort analysis of reported hepatitis C among residents aged 30 to 79 in northeastern China, 2008 to 2017

Zhao, Qian; Jiang, Shan; Li, Meina; Yao, Laishun; Ma, Xiaoyu; Li, Meng; Wang, Changcong; Pan, Yingan; Zhao, Hantong; Li, Bo

doi:10.1097/md.0000000000022005

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 36 publications

(18 reference statements)

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“…The three aforementioned reasons, along with the estimated amount of antiviral therapy to be provided, explain why an age–period–cohort (APC) analysis is needed. The previous studies have already demonstrated how the APC model is useful for not only examining the effects of age, period, and cohort on the disease burden of HCV incidence [ 8 – 10 ] and mortality [ 10 ] but also elucidating respective contributions to the evolution of HCV epidemic in high burden area [ 11 ]. All these studies have also revealed the usefulness of the APC model in identifying subpopulations at risk by gender, age groups, birth cohorts, and geographic areas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Planning, implementing, and evaluating Hepatitis C virus elimination via collaborative community-based care cascade: age–period–cohort model for estimating demand from antecedent anti-HCV survey

Lin,

Jen,

et al. 2023

Hepatol Int

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Background Estimating the demand for HCV care cascade plays an important role in planning, monitoring, and assessing the performance of introducing a new community-based hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination program but such an analytic and systematic approach has been barley addressed. Methods A new collaborative care program for HCV elimination in the Changhua Community of Taiwan has been offered to a total of 895,353 residents since 2018. To grasp the variation of demand for HCV care cascade across demographic and geographic features in the planning stage, we applied the age–period–cohort spatial model to the antecedent anti-HCV survey enrolling 123,617 participants aged 30 years or older between 2005 and 2018. Based on this precise denominator, we then employed a “before-and-after” study design to routinely evaluate whether the WHO criteria of 90% RNA positive diagnosis and 80% successful treatments could be reached. Results The overall demand for HCV care cascade was 4.28% (HCV infection) of the underlying population but a declining trend was noted. The early cohort had a higher demand, whereas the demand of the young cohort decreased with each passing year. The demand also differed by township. The demand, allowing for these variations, for antiviral treatment was 22,362, yielding the WHO target of 12,880 for achieving HCV elimination. With 11,844 successful treatments, the effectiveness of elimination has already reached 92% (11,844/12,880) by the end of 2022. Conclusions The demand for HCV care cascade allows health care decision-makers to timely and properly assess the performance of a novel community-based collaborative care program in achieving HCV elimination.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Planning, implementing, and evaluating Hepatitis C virus elimination via collaborative community-based care cascade: age–period–cohort model for estimating demand from antecedent anti-HCV survey

Lin,

Jen,

et al. 2023

Hepatol Int

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“…After adjusting for period and cohort effects, we further quantitatively determined an exponential increase in hepatitis C mortality with age, and the Belllike curves peaked around 50 years old for hepatitis B. This divergent phenomenon might be explained by the different transmission routes of hepatitis B and C. Mother-to-child and drug use are the main transmission routes of hepatitis B and C, respectively, which lead to infections occurring in infants for hepatitis B and adults for hepatitis C (27,28). After infection with hepatitis B and C, cirrhosis and liver cancer may develop over a 20-to 30-year period, which might cause increased mortality rates with age for hepatitis C and peak mortality rates at approximately 50 years old for hepatitis B, regardless of gender (29,30).…”

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confidence: 98%

Hepatitis B and C mortality from 1990 to 2019 in China: a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis

Yan¹,

Wu²

2022

Ann Transl Med

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Background: Significant decreases in hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections have been observed in China, but both remain leading public health challenges. Estimating the components and trends in HBV and HCV mortality is vital for disease control planning. The current analysis investigated time trends in hepatitis B and C mortality and the relationships with age, period, and birth cohort from 1990 to 2019. We also made projections for 2030-2034 in China.Methods: Mortality data related to hepatitis B and C were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, which was stratified by complications, age, sex, and specific geographical locations. An ageperiod-cohort (APC) analytical framework was adopted to measure age, period, and cohort effects, which fits a log-linear Poisson model over a Lexis diagram of observed rates and quantifies the additive effects of age, period, and birth cohorts. We estimated longitudinal age curves (expected longitudinal age-specific rates), net drift (overall annual percentage change), local drift (annual percentage change in each age group), period, and cohort relative risks. A Bayesian APC analysis was used to project future age-specific hepatitis B and C deaths.Results: In China, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of hepatitis B and C decreased by 67% and 58% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. The overall annual percentage changes in hepatitis B and C were −4.97% and −6.49% for males and −3.85% and −6.09% for females, respectively. After adjusting for period and cohort effects, we observed an exponential increase in hepatitis C mortality with age, with the Belllike curves peaking at approximately 50 years old for hepatitis B. The Bayesian APC analysis projected that hepatitis B and C deaths would decrease dramatically by 42% and 22% for the periods 2016-2019 and 2030-2034, respectively. The declines in ASMRs related to hepatitis B and C were associated with the improvements in the Chinese Socio-Demographic Index.Conclusions: Although the burden of hepatitis B and C mortality is likely to continue declining in China, the hepatitis B and C mortality was still high. Therefore, the national efforts should still be strengthened to achieve the global hepatitis elimination targets.

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“…The overall net drift (%) of Hepatitis B virus and Hepatitis C virus mortality across 204 countries and territories by incremental socio-demographic index from 1990 to 2019. characterized by notable declines in HBV and HCV ASMR. The national efforts of a comprehensive strategy, such as a vaccination program for hepatitis B and low-cost antivirals for HBV and HCV, are highlighted by the Chinese experience 22,23. Future studies are needed to examine if improvements in HBV and HCV mortality in China are further sustained.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends of global burden related to HBV and HCV from 1990 to 2019: An age–period–cohort analysis

Tobe

Yan³

et al. 2023

Journal of Medical Virology

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The spread of disease related to Hepatitis B and C poses a significant public health problem. There have been a few studies that examine the effects of cohort and period on the trend of mortality caused by Hepatitis B and C. This analysis aims to use an age–period–cohort (APC) framework to explore trends in mortality attributed to Hepatitis B and C worldwide and in different socio‐demographic index (SDI) regions between 1990 and 2019. The data for this analysis were taken from the Global Burden of Disease study, which was used to perform an APC analysis. The age effects reflect differences in exposure to risk factors at different stages of life. The period effects reflect population‐wide exposures at a circumscribed year. The cohort effects indicate different risks across birth cohorts. The results of the analysis include both the net drift and local drift, which are reported as the annual percentage change and that by age group. The age‐standardized mortality rate for Hepatitis B declined from 12.36 to 6.74 per 100 000, and for Hepatitis C from 8.45 to 6.67 per 100 000 between 1990 and 2019. The net drifts in mortality were −2.41% (95% confidence interval (CI) −2.47 to −2.34) for Hepatitis B and −1.16% (95% CI, −1.23 to –1.09) for Hepatitis C, with negative local drifts in most age groups. Mortality from Hepatitis B increased with age until 50+ years, while mortality from Hepatitis C rose steadily with age. The period effect for Hepatitis B was profound, suggesting effective national efforts in controlling the disease and the need for similar programs for Hepatitis B and C. Mortality varied across the world and had moderate to weak negative correlations with the SDI, which substantially decreases in the high‐middle and middle SDI regions, but has persistently high rates in the low SDI region. Global efforts to manage Hepatitis B and C have shown positive trends, but variations in trends were observed across regions with divergent age, cohort, and period effects. The national efforts of a comprehensive strategy are crucial to further strengthen the elimination of Hepatitis B and C.

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Incidence trend and age-period-cohort analysis of reported hepatitis C among residents aged 30 to 79 in northeastern China, 2008 to 2017

Abstract: Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text

Cited by 4 publications

References 36 publications

Planning, implementing, and evaluating Hepatitis C virus elimination via collaborative community-based care cascade: age–period–cohort model for estimating demand from antecedent anti-HCV survey

Planning, implementing, and evaluating Hepatitis C virus elimination via collaborative community-based care cascade: age–period–cohort model for estimating demand from antecedent anti-HCV survey

Hepatitis B and C mortality from 1990 to 2019 in China: a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis

Trends of global burden related to HBV and HCV from 1990 to 2019: An age–period–cohort analysis

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