Incidence and risk factors of pancreatic cancer during 15 years follow-up in the Golestan Cohort Study in Iran

Abstract

Background Cancer is one of the main causes of death in the worldwide. Pancreatic Cancer (PC) is prevalent in developed and increasing in developing countries. PC is important because of its low survival rate, high fatality, and increasing incidence. Therefore, identifying risk factors to prevent its development is necessary. This study aimed to determine incidence of PC and its risk factors in the Golestan Cohort Study (GCS) in Iran. Method This study is a prospective population-based cohort study in the frame of GCS with 15 years of follow-up for PC. GCS was launched in the Golestan province of Iran with 50045 participants who were 40 to 75 years old. variables included: age, gender, education status, smoking, alcohol consumption, opium usage, type of blood group, dyslipidemia, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), family history (FH) of PC, ethnicity, and history of diabetes mellitus (DM). Result Among 50045 participants of GCS during 15 years of follow up, 100 people were diagnosed PC. PC incidence was 0.2%. Age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) of PC in the study population was 11.12 per 100,000 person-years. People with age ≥60 years were 46, in 50–59 years old group were 36, and 18 of them were <50 years (p<0.001). The smoking rate in PC group was 27% (p<0.01). Univariate model of cox regression analysis showed age 50–59, ≥60 years compared to <50 years [HR:3.006, 95%CI (1.707–5.294), p<0.001], [HR: 6.727, 95% CI (3.899–11.608), p<0.001], male gender [HR:1.541, 95%CI (1.041–2.281), p = 0.031], opium use [HR:1.436, 95% CI (0.887–2.324), p = 0.141], and smoking [HR:1.884, 95%CI (1.211–2.929), p = 0.005] were predictors for PC. In the multivariate model after adjusting, age 50–59 [HR:2.99, 95% CI (1.698–5.265), p<0.001], and ≥60 years [HR: 6.564, 95% CI (3.797–11.346), p<0.001] was the only predictor for PC. Conclusion This study revealed an incidence of PC 0.2% in GCS in Iran. Main risk factor for PC was older age.