In Search of Proximate Triggers of Anthrax Outbreaks in Wildlife: A Hypothetical Individual-Based Model of Plasmid Transfer within Bacillus Communities

Abstract

Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax in humans, livestock, and wildlife, exists in a community with hundreds of other species of bacteria in the environment. Work on the genetics of these communities has shown that B. anthracis shares a high percentage of chromosomal genes with both B. thuringiensis and B. cereus, and that phenotypic differences among these bacteria can result from extra-chromosomal DNA in the form of plasmids. We developed a simple hypothetical individual-based model to simulate the likelihood of detecting plasmids with genes encoding anthrax toxins within bacterial communities composed of B. anthracis, B. thuringiensis, and B. cereus, and the surrounding matrix of extra-cellular polymeric substances. Simulation results suggest the horizontal transfer of plasmids with genes encoding anthrax toxins among Bacillus species persisting outside the host could function as a proximate factor triggering anthrax outbreaks.