In Crisis or Decline? Selecting Women to Lead Provincial Parties in Government

Abstract

The majority of Canada's women premiers were selected to that office while their parties held government. This is uncommon, both in the comparative literature and among premiers who are men. What explains this gendered selection pattern to Canada's provincial premiers’ offices? This paper explores the most common explanation found in the comparative literature for women's emergence as leaders of electorally competitive parties and as chief political executives: women are more likely to be selected when that party is in crisis or decline. Using the population of women provincial premiers in Canada as case studies, evidence suggests three of eight women premiers were selected to lead parties in government that were in crisis or decline; a fourth was selected to lead a small, left-leaning party as predicted by the literature. However, for half of the women premiers, evidence of their party's decline is partial or inconclusive. As a result of this exploration, more research is required to draw generalizations about the gendered opportunity structures that shape how women enter (and exit) the premier's office in Canada.

Women Leaders and Pandemic Performance: A Spurious Correlation

“…The pandemic has raised women leaders’ profiles, but gendered double standards remain. Women governing during crisis face shorter tenures, harsher exits, and disproportionate blame compared with similarly situated men (O'Neill, Pruysers, and Stewart 2019; Reyes-Housholder 2019; Thomas 2018). Making women leaders into icons of coronavirus containment could heighten voters’ dissatisfaction with their performance as the pandemic lingers and even worsens.…”

Do women get fewer votes? No.

“…In the rare circumstances where a party presents more than one candidate in the same riding, '() is the sum of vote shares, and '() is the mean of the woman dummy, taken over all the candidates of party in riding for election . 5 On the selection of women to lead political parties in Canada, see Thomas (2018). On the election of women in provincial elections, see Matland and Studlar (1998).…”

Do Women Get Fewer Votes? No.

“…In the rare circumstances where a party presents more than one candidate in the same riding, '() is the sum of vote shares, and '() is the mean of the woman dummy, taken over all the candidates of party in riding for election . 5 On the selection of women to lead political parties in Canada, see Thomas (2018). On the election of women in provincial elections, see Matland and Studlar (1998).…”

“…5On the selection of women to lead political parties in Canada, see Thomas (2018). On the election of women in provincial elections, see Matland and Studlar (1998).…”